Back-To-Back Jacks

As I’ve said several times now, after a great Week 6, my biggest goal for Week 7 was to end in the black for the second week in a row for the first time this season.

TNF went well and Sunday went even better, so when MNF didn’t go well, it was only a small dent in an otherwise terrific week that included a big hit on a 6-leg TD round robin (RR) and parlay, as well as a 5-team teaser, which are both longer (legs) than I’ve ever hit before.

Lessons Learned

Cumulatively, I’m now up 25.6u, or 15.1% return, and looking back on where I’ve had success recently, I have a few takeaways:

1) The pivot in prep following the historically bad Week 5 seems to be paying off - betting on Saquon Barkley and Rashod Bateman were both highly intentional and backed by research, but then again so was Justin Jefferson and the Panthers as a whole, so…

2) there is absolutely still luck involved - hitting a 6-leg parlay is never going to be sustainable. Sure, there’s research there, but the variance is way too high to rely on that every week, which means that I need to…

3) just chill out dude - there was no reason to bet that much on Kimani Vidal - who do I think I am?!?

I’m still struggling with discipline around both total unit spend as well as bet breadth. In other words, I’m betting more money than I’d like across way too many bets. In other other words, I have a ton of ideas and don’t like choose favorites.

That’s all fun and helps when watching boring primetime games, but I still want to improve on actually deciphering my conviction levels and allocating my units accordingly.

Bring on Week 8 - can I possibly go for a three-peat?!?

Lions vs. Vikings

See my Previous Thoughts for reference.

Tim Patrick Saves Me By The Hair Of His Chinny Chin Chin Beard

Most balls in the air were going to Amon-Ra St. Brown who finished with 8 receptions on 8 targets for 112 yards and a TD. Even LaPorta only had 1 reception so I’m thankful Patrick was able to snag 25 and save me from striking out on this entire game.

DOWN GOES DARNOLD

The Lions hand the Vikings their first loss and the NFC North is looking DANGEROUS! That’s right, I’m using this Lions win over the Vikings to prop up my Bears.

Can We Give Justin Jefferson 20 Bonus Yards For Catch Difficulty?

That’s it - the Lions played a lot better coverage than I was expecting. 81 yards is great but it’s nowhere near what I had in mind. This one was high conviction so it’s disappointing.

Montgomery vs. Gibbs Conversation

I’m not trying to say anything here, but I’ll just state some facts.

• David Montgomery has started every game.

• Jahmyr Gibbs has out-snapped him in 5/6 games (and almost all 6).

• Gibbs is also holding a 27% premium in yards per carry and seems to be on the field more in high leverage situations.

I don’t think we necessarily have to label a #1 vs. #2 RB here, but if we did, even though Montgomery is the “starter”, Gibbs has to be #1 right?

That’s nothing on Montgomery - he’s a former Bear and I sincerely wish he still was, but Gibbs is on another level…so if we have to have this conversation (which we don’t), then I’m forced to go with Gibbs.

Takeaway? Nothing much, but maybe when looking to live bet the Lions in a close game, lean towards Gibbs…

Seahawks vs. Falcons

See my Previous Thoughts for reference.

Metcalf Stuck At 99, Makes Me So Mad I Could Just Grab A Headset And Yell At A Coach!

I bet this based on the squeaky wheel theory and while D.K’s Over cashed relatively seamlessly, I have to admit I didn’t get the impression they were force-feeding him (which is what I thought would happen after the headset incident last week).

Completely unrelated, he got hurt part way through the 4th quarter while he was stuck at 99 yards, just ONE yard shy of that 100+ alt line. And even though the Seahawks were up by 17 at the time, they were still throwing, so I’m confident D.K. could have snagged one more yard if he didn’t get injured.

Eagles vs. Giants

See my Previous Thoughts for reference.

Was Saquon The Easiest Bet Of The Week?

Like I said before, I wasn’t even thinking about the revenge angle - this was just a numbers play. The Eagles had a significant run game mismatch in the trenches and Saquon had been averaging 6.7 yards per carry until last game (which I viewed as an outlier). His attempts line for this game was set at 17.5 which implied 120 rush yards (as a base).

It turns out he averaged over 10 yards per carry on 17 carries for 176 yards and 1 TD. I guess I should have played his alts even higher!

Also, he could have had more and broken his career high if he wanted - check this clip of him deferring to “let the young boys eat'“ instead. Saquon=Prince.

Panthers vs. Commanders

See my Previous Thoughts for reference.

“We put liquid paper on a bee…and it died”

That’s how I feel now reflecting on my Panthers bets from last week. I called my shot…and it didn’t work.

What’s crazy is that at times, the Panthers’ offense was working. But every time they got moving, Andy Dalton would just throw an interception or miss a wide open receiver.

Red Rocket Train Completely Derailed

PFF has Dalton ranked 29 out of 35 eligible quarterbacks this week for passing while his QBR ranks 32 of 35. That’s just simply not going to cut it.

Jayden Daniels also got hurt in the first quarter, which is not something we root for here at Rule 76, but since he seems like he’s okay, how can I not look back on that situation and think it was a massive benefit to my pro-Panthers bet slip?!? Didn’t matter…Andy Dalton made sure of that.

Nice guy, but sheeeeeeesh.

Also speaking of injuries, it was just announced that Andy Dalton injured his thumb in a car accident? So Bryce Young will be starting next week…

Chiefs vs. 49ers

See my Previous Thoughts for reference.

RBs Dominate, 2 Yards Away From A Clean Sweep

What are the odds Jordan Mason lands between his line of 57.5 and his alt line of 60?

Why did I even play an alt line so close to the regular line?

2 yards for 10 cents of price?

Weird move by me, but ultimately a great call to focus on the RBs who both had success in this game, particularly in the second half.

18 Different Players Caught A Pass In This Game

Both teams are currently struggling with receiver depth. The Chiefs apparently finalized a deal to acquire Deandre Hopkins which should help, but otherwise these guys are just relying on their TEs. Leading receivers from this game were George Kittle with 6 receptions on 7 targets for 92 yards and Noah Gray with 4 receptions on 4 targets for 66 yards. Pending Hopkins, I’m not really sure I see that changing?

Although, it’s probably worthwhile to start getting familiar with the 49ers tertiary receiving core, particularly given their Week 8 matchup against the Cowboys on SNF (a game I will definitely be betting on).

QBs Just Weren’t Good At Passing

Mahomes is Mahomes and Purdy has been very good this year, so it might surprise you to know that they were both ranked at the very bottom of QBs this week (sandwiching Andy Dalton in a lot of metrics). Both had bad missed throws and interceptions that legitimately affected their teams; however, both were also able to counteract with the use of their legs.

Special Mahomes: Mahomes is just special. There were a handful of plays in this game where his awareness and mobility legitimately made the difference for the Chiefs. They’ve proven time and time again that superior coaching and QBing is enough to beat any team in any situation. Remember, the 49ers were favored here - Mahomes as a dawg needs to be an automatic bet forever.

Purdy Rushing: Purdy rushing should also be an automatic bet. He’s Over his rushing yards prop in 7/7 games this year. He’s sneaky quick and with the 49ers now in a precarious position (receiver depth and postseason chances), I’d only expect his rushing attempts to continue rising. Next up primetime against Dallas? Expect the HAMMER.

Purdy Rushing Prop Stats - bettingpros

Ravens vs. Bucs

See my Previous Thoughts for reference.

Injuries Suck

Can we just turn injuries off in the settings?

Mike Evans put the finishing touches on his hamstring, Chris Godwin basically ripped is ankle off his leg, and Zay Flowers got rolled up on (plus more).

Evans: In hindsight, betting on Evans with an injured hamstring of an unknown degree wasn’t the brightest idea. And even if I was running through that stop sign, it would have been smarter to take his TD vs. his yards because if his injury was hampering him, his usage would naturally be isolated to the red zone (which was pretty much the case).

Consider that lesson learned…

Next Man Up

Cade Otton had himself a night, which I sort of predicted (but not really), and finished with 8 receptions on 10 targets for 100 yards, but I can’t imagine the Bucs will follow the Raiders’ path with Brock Bowers who has 4x as many targets as the average TE.

So are we about to go all-in on Jalen McMillan?!? In the absence of Evans, McMillan was targeted 8 times, by far the most of the season and finished with 3 receptions but only for 15 yards. The problem is, will the ADOT and YAC be there without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin commanding the focus of the defense?

Or will the Bucs, with their newfound three headed backfield, just rely on the RB position?

Or………Cooper Kupp has entered the chat?

How The Devil Were The Bucs Able To Run Against The Ravens?!?

May I remind you that the Ravens haven’t given up 50 yards to a single RB this year? That’s still the case because the Bucs were rotating three guys, but those three guys finished with 24 carries for 92 yards (3.8 YPC) in a trailing game script?!?

And of course Rachaad White led the group with 10 carries for 40 yards, blowing my Under right out of the water. I’m not bitter about the bet because I still think it made sense, but I’m just genuinely surprised. Even Joe Buck and Troy Aikmen were surprised on the broadcast…

Baker Mayfield With A TD/INT Full House

Coming off a wild week in New Orleans with 4 TDs and 3 INTs, Baker kept the crazy and threw for 370 yards on 45 attempts for 3 TDs and 2 INTs - that is straight havoc.

I Am Bateman

It feels good to have been on Bateman but now I just wish I was on his yards ladder. He finished with 4 receptions for 121 yards with a TD - his 3rd straight game with 4 receptions and cashing his yards Over.

Even if Flowers didn’t hurt his ankle, I’m confident this bet gets home. His rapport with Lamar has been clearly growing and his advanced stats on separation are all constructive. After this breakout and a potentially injured Flowers, I’ll be very interested to see how his line inflates next week against the 1-6 Browns.

Tractorcito Back On The Tracks

Not gonna lie, I thought I had him in the first half. 

I wasn’t dumb enough to take Henry’s Under, but I did actively avoid him this week and for the entirety of the first half, I was feeling pretty good about it. He just wasn’t as effective as usual and Justice Hill was on the field so often that there was speculation of an injury or something else plaguing Henry.

False. He went absolutely off in the second half and finished with 169 yards on only 15 carries. Oh, and of course he had a TD (receiving) - gotta keep the streak alive.

Derrick Henry is a freight train, and the Bucs were simply on the tracks.

Chargers vs. Cardinals

See my Previous Thoughts for reference.

The Chargers Didn’t Score A TD

Not much else to say there. Herbert was slingin’ it and the Chargers outgained the Cardinals 395-326 and held the ball longer (34 minutes vs. 26), But they lost the turnover battle and got crushed by penalties.

Stop Trying To Make Vidal Happen

I’ve already mentioned this but I had no business allocating 3u to various Kimani Vidal bets. I just had a really good feeling about the guy, but he ended with 10 yards on only 3 carries. That’s just not going to cut it. .

Round Robins, Teasers, Parlays, OH MY!

See my Previous Thoughts for reference.

So again, going back to my prep pivot post-Week 5, I’ve obviously started focusing on PFF offensive line matchup data, which seems to be a decent indicator. There’s a reason why most of the games and players that I bet on are included on the following teams:

Teams with the biggest matchup advantages (suggests scoring):

• Detroit (✅)

• Carolina (❌)

• Washington (✅)

• Baltimore (✅)

• Denver (✅)

• Atlanta (❌)

Teams with the biggest matchup advantage deltas (suggests winning/covering):

• Baltimore (✅)

• Jacksonville (✅)

• Cleveland (❌)

• Denver (✅)

• Detroit (✅)

• Atlanta (❌)

No excuses, play like a champion.