After a tremendous Week 6, I had one goal heading into Week 7: achieve my first back-to-back weeks in the black.

Week 7 TNF was a great start and Sunday was even better (full recap to come this week).

There are still two games left tonight, but I’ve structured my bets so that even if I lose every single one, I’ll still be in the black for the week…so folks, I’ve done it.

Tonight is gravy and I’m already thinking about Week 8 (which is totally a winning attitude and definitely won’t come back to bite me).

Let’s hope for some good games tonight - and fair warning, Chargers/Cardinals is a late kick (9pm ET) and is only streaming on ESPN+ (unless you live in Phoenix). Super annoying I know - start texting your friends for that login now.

Ravens vs. Bucs

The Dude Abides

If I’m abiding by my PFF matchup advantages, all signs point to a heavy Cover from the Ravens. The Bucs are stepping up in class while the Ravens are stepping down, but as I’ve said in the past, I just don’t fully trust the Ravens. They feel like the kind of team that can play down to their opponent and/or blow a late lead so I won’t be taking them at -3.5 or -4.5.

On the other hand, given the stark mismatch in the trenches, I’m not rushing to bet the Bucs either. So as I always do, I’m seeking refuge in player props.

Derrick Henry

Henry has been simply dominant lately and his line of 85.5 yards reflects it. He’s over this in 4/6 games (nearly 5/6) with 3/6 above 100 and has at least one TD in every game so far. The Ravens generate some of the best push in the league, but something is telling me to take a night off from Henry.

The Bucs’ defensive front has gotten healthier, despite Vita Vea appearing on the injury report on Saturday (hammy). He’s actually big enough to make a difference against Henry so while I do think Henry will have another good night on the ground, I’m steering my unit traffic elsewhere.

Ravens Receivers

If I believe the Bucs can at least somewhat temper the run tonight, then Lamar must be passing. If Lamar is passing, you know Todd Bowles’ Bucs defense will be blitzing and Lamar has actually handled the blitz better this year than in years’ past. His passing yards line is 231.5 which is a little high for me, particularly given the threat of Derrick Henry taking over.

WR1 is Zay Flowers whose line is 62.5 on 5.5 receptions at plus money. WR1s and some WR2s (especially YAC-oriented) tend to do pretty well against the Bucs - Amon-Ra St. Brown had 119 yards on 11 receptions, Drake London at 154 on 12, Darnell Mooney had 105 on 9 in the same game, and Courtland Sutton had 68 on 7. I’ll take a shot on Flowers for the yards and Rashod Bateman at a much more manageable 35.5 yards and receptions to 4. He’s had 4+ targets in all but 1 game this year and has looked great in the past two weeks. If he and Lamar continue to get on the same page, he could have a big night.

TE Coin Flip: According to PFF, Isaiah Likely has the #1 mismatch in Week 7. This metric has served me will in the past with Kittle and Kmet, but because Mark Andrews has finally started to get in the mix of the passing game, I’m not ready to trust Likely. In the absence of Andrews vulturing targets, Likely likely has a big game, but I don’t want to play splitsies with those two.

Fading White

The Ravens have yet to give up 50 yards to any single running back this year. The Bucs now kind of have a backfield of 3 and have made it clear they will be going with the hot hand (in this case likely Bucky Irving). White has also been on/off the injury report and going against the Ravens isn’t exactly a great get-back game.

Baker Conundrum

The matchups are steering me away from Baker, but 1) I like him, 2) he’s playing well, and 3) there’s a lot to play for in Tampa right now, but this is also a major step up in class. That said, the Ravens haven’t defended the pass as well this year. McLaurin went for 53, Davante Adams 110, Rashee Rice 103, CeeDee Lamb 67, Jamaar Chase 193, Tee Higgins 83 in the same game, and Khalil Shakir for 62.

Similar stat lines exist for TEs, so either Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and/or Cade Otton could go absolutely OFF tonight. Problem is, Godwin’s and Otton’s lines are fairly elevated while Mike Evans has been dealing with a hurt hamstring (despite not appearing on the injury report tonight).

Even with the hammy, if I have to choose one, it’s gotta be Evans (even though Godwin has looked incredible this year). And since I’m having trouble choosing, I might as well just circle back to Baker and hope he either crushes it or is granted some garbage yard time.

I’m confident the Bucs won’t be able to do much on the ground, and they’ve shown trust in Baker, so in Baker we trust…

Chargers vs. Cardinals

Dobbins Night

By all accords, this should be a J.K. Dobbins night. Everyone runs on the Cardinals and nobody tries to hide it. But his line of 79.5 yards on 17.5 attempts is extremely high for him, and similar to other high RB lines, the biggest risk to this is probably injury, which I’m not willing to roll the dice on given his history…

Enter Vidal

With Gus Edwards on the IR, Kimani Vidal took his first snaps last week and hauled in a 38-yard TD pass on his first ever NFL touch. I’m going to be completely honest, I don’t know how much Vidal is going to play tonight, and I have too many units on him for that scenario, but 1) this work load shouldn’t completely fall on Dobbins, 2) Dobbins has a history of injuries, and 3) I just have a feeling on this guy.

This is me trying to catch lightning before the market has a chance to figure it out. 

Scott Matlock

Defensive lineman and part-time fullback in a Harbaugh offense with increasing offensive snap count and sky high TD odds. What more do you want?!? I’ve spent 0.25 units in worst places…

Matlock and Vidal are high variance so swim at your own risk.

Chargers + Herbert + McConkey

This is all about the matchup advantages - the Chargers should be able to find success in the air. The question is whether or not they’ll even try. Herbert has looked good and without lineman constantly all up in his face, he might actually be able to cook tonight (if given the chance).

If he does, there’s a good chance McConkey is his man tonight. Quentin Johnston and Hayden Hurst are both Doubtful and as a result, McConkey’s line of 51.5 yards on 4.5 receptions is insanely high. He’s only had 5 receptions twice this year and he’s only over the yards once, but I’m viewing that as a leading indicator…or perhaps I’m just buying at his ceiling.

We’ll see (or not, this game is on super late and only on ESPN+). 

No excuses, play like a champion.