This was the week of Favorites - I’m pretty sure all favorites won and covered except for the Titans. Typically, “the public” does well when the Favorites win. Does that make me the public? It sure does. Am I okay with that? Eh. I lean into the fact that I’m not a professional, but I’d still like to be able to manufacture my own unique angles and ideas, and the verdict is still out on whether or not that’s the case.

Last week I said I was changing up my prep process and weighting sources of information differently, and if you read the Week 6 Preview, it’s fairly evident that I put more stock in PFF’s offensive line, tight end, and receiver matchup advantages than in previous weeks.

And while that was certainly successful this week, it makes sense given the spreads and lines are based on those matchups in the first place. If they were always perfectly correct as indicators, there’d be no betting market.

Where I like the think I come in is further validating what those matchups suggest with other sources and my own opinions. For instance, this week, matchups suggested Lions, Packers, and Falcons (which I was on), but they also suggested Ravens, Texans, and Bucs. Those three teams also scored 30+ points and won by substantial margin (again, it was the week of favorites), but I filtered them out because:

• Ravens: Not sure I trust them and there are trends out there that suggest Lamar tends to struggle to cover as a favorite. They also played the Commanders who are essentially in unchartered territory right now. The Ravens have also given up several double digit leads this year and what better team to expose that than the Commanders right now?

• Bucs: This was a divisional [away] matchup against a Saints team with a rookie QB making his first start, which meant there was a healthy dose of variance on the other side of the ball that most likely would favor the Bucs, but it was all too much unknown for me to put my eggs in the Bucs’ basket.

• Texans: Similar to the Bucs/Saints, the Patriots were starting Drake Maye for the first time, which introduced a whole lot of unknown into the equation. CJ Stroud has also shown weaknesses against Man coverage this year and there are trends that support weakness when playing away. And although the Patriots’ reputation for being able to stifle opposing offenses is waning, it’s still present enough for me to hesitate here as well.

Story Moral: All of that is to say that while I’m very happy with my Week 6 results, I don’t want to get overconfident or trick myself into thinking my new prep methods are the secret to success. I haven’t had two winning weeks in a row yet, and I’m determined to change that.

Jaguars vs. Bears (London)

See my Previous Thoughts for reference.

Well this was essentially the best possible way for Sunday to start - two Cole Kmet TDs and a Bears double digit lead by halftime?!?

A Little Luck Never Hurts: Even though this was two games in a row of nailing a 2 TD bet (see Kittle), I don’t want to get carried away as these aren’t typically known as “plus EV” bets. Touchdowns are highly variable so while yes, I was correctly on Kittle and Kmet as x-factors in their games (which feels good), the 2 TDs definitely incorporates a degree of luck (but that’s okay too).

Kuhmet: That all said, I did in fact nail Kmet - he finished with 5 receptions on 5 targets for 70 yards and 2 TD and was the Bears’ leading receiver. The signs were all there; the Bears just needed to execute…and they sure did.

Caleb Williams was 23-29 for 226 yards with 4 TD passes and a QB rating of 124.3, as well as 56 yards rushing on 4 carries. D’Andre Swift had another good game with 91 yards and a TD on 17 carries, and 7 Bears ended up catching passes, including 40-year old Marcedes Lewis.

What are my thoughts on the Bears you ask? Three wins in a row with a 51-point differential is amazing, but I still don’t want to overlook the quality of opponent. If this was Weeks 11, 12, and 13 against the Packers, Vikings, and Lions, I’d be ecstatic, but it wasn’t, and that tough stretch is looming.

It’s refreshing to see a functional and dare I say high-powered offense, but 1) the opposing defenses were weak, 2) specifically, the Jaguars simply couldn’t get out of their own way, and without all the horribly timed penalties, this game could look differently because 3) even though the score may not reflect it, the Jaguars’ offense was slicing and dicing the Bears’ defense at times.

The absence of Jaquon Brisker was felt and losing Kyler Gordon exacerbated it even further. The Bears did plug the run for once, “tanking” my Tank Bigsby bets (but I’ll happily swap that for the Bears W), but Trevor Lawrence (who has struggled this year) had 234 passing yards and he would have had more if their defense wasn’t constantly shooting itself in its proverbial foot.

Let’s just say the Week 7 Bye couldn’t have been timed any better for the Bears - particularly if Brisker and Gordan can come back healthy for Week 8 against the Commanders (which not to get too ahead of myself because I’m still self-grounded from Lookaheads, but 47 total points seems way too low to me).

Commanders vs. Ravens

See my Previous Thoughts for reference.

The Battle of the Beltway: Jayden Daniels looked better than I expected (24-35 for 269 yards, 2 TD and 0 INTs) while Lamar was his usual self (20-26 for 323 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT). But the real difference maker was Derrick Henry who is simply automatic right now - 132 yards and 2 TDs on 24 carries and the primary reason for the Ravens protecting their lead and controlling the ball for 60% of the game.

Red Zone Sweat: This whole TD structured product thing was a fun idea but I’m not sure it really played out how I thought it would. In this scenario where neither scored a TD, I thought the “sweat” would be worth the 1.25u price of admission. Lamar only had 1 rush in the red zone for -2 yards and Jayden only had 2 for 0 yards - not really what I was going for…

Lions @ Cowboys

See my Previous Thoughts for reference.

Not So Fishy After All: This game played out exactly how I thought it would, but I standby not loading up given the general fishiness of the line.

Something didn’t feel right about it staying at -3 all week. Typically I feel like this means the big dawgs know something I don’t; however, it’s always possible this just becomes a bad line. And in the scenario where the books make a big adjustment, it’s basically a signal to the market that the market is right which could lead to a massive influx of Lions money, whereas keeping some ambiguity around the wrong number might lead to some hesitation (like it did for me) and therefore an overall lighter hit to the books.

I have no idea if I’m right about that, but it makes sense to me.  

Cardinals vs. Packers

See my Previous Thoughts for reference.

Half Right: This game almost played out exactly how I thought it would, but I had the wrong player components. And while it would have been nice for the Bears if the Lions and Packers dropped one here, my wallet was very happy for an NFC North Sweep.

Fading Arizona: This game was honestly less about the Packers and more about the Cardinals who haven’t looked right most of the year and were coming off a huge Divisional win against the 49ers. Fading them in the elements (even though the weather really wasn’t that bad) seemed like the right call.

Some Like Annie’s Better: What wasn’t the right call was buying Tucker Kraft at peak prices, particularly given he was battling an injury. It worked for Kittle, but not for Kraft. The Packers are hard to nail down from a receiving perspective - they had 9 players catch a pass in this game and I never know which one is going to lead the team (and I realize as I type this that it’s further complimenting the Packers).

Go Pack Go (bleh)

Falcons vs. Panthers

See my Previous Thoughts for reference.

My previous thought was that betting on Allgeier worked from several angles (Bijan re-injury, Bijan limited snaps, Falcons blowout, etc.). Furthermore, his rushing attempts line was set at 9.5 which was higher than he’s had in any previous game this year (which I viewed as a leading indicator).

In this case, it was more of the Falcons blowout angle considering Bijan Robinson had 15 carries for 95 yards and 2 TD and Allgeier finished with 18 carries for 105 yards and 1 TD (and very very nearly 2 TD).

Everything about this worked - the Panthers are who we thought they were.

Bills vs. Jets

See my Previous Thoughts for reference.

Accidents Happen: Recall I accidentally bet Lazard O 3.5 receptions (because he was right next to Conklin and at the same price), but I knew better than to cash it out, and of course, it ended up being the best looking bet on my slip. Lazard finished with 6 catches on 7 targets for 114 yards and 1 TD.

A Little More Luck: While Lazard was targeted 2 times in the red zone, his TD was on an end of half hailmary heave from Rodgers, which is undoubtedly a bit lucky. But the fact remains the same: Lazard is a TD machine.

Conked Out: Conklin, on the other hand wasn’t so lucky. He only had 2 receptions on 3 targets for 7 yards and he didn’t even have a target in the first half. Honestly, I probably bought him at his ceiling and was ultimately a week late, but it happens.

Josh Allen Letdown: Josh Allen rushed 9 times for 18 yards, but three of those rushes were kneel-downs, so he really only rushed 6 times for ~20 yards, which is just over 3 yards per carry and not exactly what I was expecting from him. Looking back on it, it probably wasn’t the smartest thing in the world to bet on his rushing the week after his [not] concussion.

WR Additions: Meanwhile, the Jets finalized an agreement with the Raiders to acquire Davante Adams while the Bills acquired Amari Cooper from the Browns - would have been nice if that happened a week ago and we got to see these guys on prime time, but oh well. We do get the Jets on SNF next week against the Steelers but it has a current point total of 38… this might be one of those games where the Under can’t go low enough…

Round Robins

See my Previous Thoughts for reference.

All I have to say is “3 Over 30” might be here to stay, even if the name is super lame dad joke-y. Like I said at the top, this was the week of Favorites, so I’m not surprised these all hit, as well as the other teams on my radar (Ravens, Bucs, and Texans). I’m going to make another one of these in Week 7 but I’m not going to be completely shifting my strategy around just because this worked once.

No excuses, play like a champion.