Since the Week 5 massacre concluded, I’ve switched up some things in my prep, and so far, Week 6 has started on a positive note with a nice 49ers win featuring two George Kittle TDs on Thursday Night.

Let’s hope the positive momentum continues into Sunday and perhaps I can get back in the black for the year.

All that said, this week was a bit disjointed with work and personal plans and by the time it was all said and done, I was way heavier on Week 6 than I ever intended to be.

So the pressure is on even more than it should be, and it all starts with my Bears kicking off in London at 9:30am ET against the Jaguars. Some of my more trustworthy sources of information and inspiration are on the Jags here, so I’m just a wee bit nervous, lads.

Jaguars vs. Bears (London)

Kuhmet

Cole Kmet has the top TE advantage this week according to PFF. That alone is enough for me to be on his Over. Then I see his past three games, in which it seems Caleb Williams has started to further understand the offense, and he has 97, 34, and 57 yards (13.3 yards per reception). At that rate, this prop could hit in 2 catches, or 3. His reception line is set at 3.5 but juiced to the over (at plus money), so I’m more comfortable with the yards here.

He also has 4 receptions on 4 targets in the red zone for a TD this year. The Bears have a lot of mouths to feed and seem like they’re just starting to figure out how the offense works, so I’m not going too heavy on his TD, but at a price of +330 (23% implied probability), I’ll take it. In other words, do I think Kmet catches a TD in 1/4 games played in this exact scenario? Yes, I do. And after hitting Kittle for 2 TD on TNF, I have to sprinkle on Kmet 2 TD…

Tank

This one is a little bit more up in the air. Travis Etienne started the season as the Jaguars’ leading back, but Tank Bigsby has seen more playing time as Etienne battles a shoulder injury. Etienne was limited in practice this week but will play Sunday without injury designation; however, it’s speculated his workload will remain limited for the injury.

I’m banking on that, as well as Tank’s last two games of 89 yards on 7 carries and 101 yards and 2 TDs on 13 carries. The dude is a straight bowling ball and the Bears unfortunately have not demonstrated any ability to stop the run (Tony Pollard for 82, Kyren Williams for 94, Jonathan Taylor for 110, and Chuba Hubbard last week for 97).

Further muddying the waters is apparently some drama around offensive play calling for the Jaguars. Jaquon Brisker (Bears Safety) is also out which supports passing, but I’m of the opinion that Brisker isn’t the only reason the Bears tend to defend the passing game well, and that if I know to call a run-heavy script against the Bears, then certainly every member of the Jaguars staff must know that too, right? Plus, Trevor Lawrence has given no reasons to be confident in his ability to move the ball down field.

Bears by a million, but the Jags should take the path of least resistance here and just roll Tank Bigsby down the field.

Commanders vs. Ravens

Lamar vs. Jayden

Whether people like it or not, there’s a narrative here and these two guys are going to be compared. Full stop.

Whether or not it actually gets into either of their minds, I’d like to think that regardless, Jayden is in another prove-it spot, and if he gets into the end zone, maybe Lamar is a little more likely to keep the ball on that read option to Derrick Henry?

Touchdown Structured Product? With the way the prices are set, if either Lamar or Jayden score a TD, these three bets essentially break even. If they both hit, it’s double money, and if none hit, it’s a 1.25u price for red zone sweat in a high-Total game. Worth the price of admission to me…

Tractorcito

The biggest risk to those TD bets (or at least Lamar’s)? …Derrick Henry (“Tractorcito”). Henry’s TD price is set at -330 at Fanduel, which is Christian McCaffrey territory.

In terms of implied probability, that’s Fanduel saying there’s a 77% chance Henry scores a TD on Sunday. Given risk of injury and other natural variance of football, and especially touchdowns, that’s insanely high.

Which is why I’m more comfortable taking his yards. 82.5 is also incredibly high but he really should have a field day against this Commanders’ defense.

To me, this is a very similar situation to Jordan Mason against the Seahawks on Thursday night - it’s a high number but I wouldn’t be surprised if Henry goes for 150-200+, however the implied usage gives added risk to injury. Henry is a beast, but he’s still a 30-year old running back. There’s some miles on that thar tractor…

I got burned by a Jordan Mason injury Thursday night, so let’s see how Henry fares.

Lions @ Cowboys

Fishy Fishy

Something’s not quite right about this line (at least in my head). I maintain the Cowboys are fraudulent and after a few bumpy weeks, the Lions finally got their offense running smoothly before last week’s Bye.

According to PFF, the Lions have one of the best offensive line (passing) advantages this week and the best offensive line (running) advantage at 67% (the highest I’ve seen so far this year). Sam LaPorta also has one of the best TE advantages this week. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs are both rested and healthy (to the public’s knowledge) and the Lions have a point to prove from the last time they played Dallas.

Add all those things up and I’m not sure how the Cowboys ever stop the Lions’ offense. My biggest problem was figuring out whether or not to be on Montgomery or Gibbs…or both, of which I didn’t ultimately determine (although Gibbs has had the hotter hand). And it’s worth noting Fanduel has some interesting specials at the bottom of the Rushing tab that include Montgomery and Gibbs combined yardage from 200, 250, and 300 at +900, +4200, and +18000. They haven’t hit that this year yet, but if there was ever a time…

Back to the fishiness…my suspicions on the line seem to ring true with most articles and podcasts consumed this week. Even if you apply the typical ~2.5 point home field advantage, that means this game spread is at 5.5-6.0, which is still way off my expectations and why I’m scared to put more on this game. I wanted to take DET -3 earlier in the week in expectation of the line moving further and further in favor of Detroit, but it never moved (at least at Fanduel).

It’s making me feel like the important people know something I don’t know about this matchup, and when that happens, it’s best not to load up. But at the same time, I want to trust my got and be on Detroit’s side. It’s officially in no outcome would be a surprise territory. What a predicament…

Cardinals vs. Packers

Go Pack Go (Bleh)

It pains me to say it, but I like this matchup for the Packers. Arizona is coming off an impressive divisional win and now traveling to what I consider to be one of the toughest places to play, particularly for a dome team outdoors in the elements (scattered showers expected).

The Packers have the top offensive line pass block advantage according to PFF this week (and modestly positive run advantage too), while Arizona is largely neutral.

As far as game script goes, I’m expecting the Packers to jump out to an early lead, and that Arizona will hit some explosive / garbage plays to Marvin Harrison, Michael Wilson, and/or Trey McBride - ideally enough to cash the Over and Marvin Harrison’s receiving props, but not enough that the Packers can’t suffocate them with the run.

Do the right thing, Packers - I will never bet on you unless I really think it’s the right side.

Kraft Mac ‘N Cheese

Tucker Kraft has the top TE advantage (43%) this week according to PFF. I’ll admit I’m buying relatively high after a great last two weeks (6-7 for 53 yards and 1 TD in Week 4 and then 4-6 for 88 yards and 2 TD against the Rams last week). He’s also been battling some injuries, but I’m still fine going with the hot hand here given the matchup makes a ton of sense. Hopefully this is indeed a high scoring game and Kraft can get his fill.

Marvin Harrison Jr.

Similar to Kraft, Marvin Harrison Jr. has one of the best matchups this week according to…you guessed it…PFF. However, unlike Kraft, Harrison is coming off two relatively down weeks, particularly last week against the 49ers (2-7 for 36 yards), which I don’t think is unrelated to Trey McBride’s return, but I do think Marvin Harrison Jr. isn’t the kind of player you want to keep quiet for 3 consecutive weeks.

Couple that with my expectation of a high scoring game, at least from the Packers, and I think Marvin should be able to get his today, at what I consider to be a relatively depressed price.

Falcons vs. Panthers

People know by now that the Panthers don’t have the strongest defense. What some people might not know is that Bijan Robinson is dealing with a hamstring injury, which limited him in practice this week even though he won’t be carrying an injury designation on Sunday.

Betting on Allgeier works from several angles (Bijan re-injury, Bijan limited snaps, Falcons blowout, etc.). What’s interesting here and what I consider to be confirmatory, is that Allgeier’s rushing attempts line is set at 9.5, even though he hasn’t covered that once this year.

That doesn’t make sense, and to me is a leading indicator that Allgeier should see more work on Sunday.

That said, I feel like there’s a disconnect with his yardage. Allgeier is averaging 5.4 yards per carry this year while the Panthers are giving up 4.3 yards per carry to running backs this year…easy math on 9-10 carries puts him Over his line of 38.5 relatively easily.

And in the scenario where Bijan is limited for any reason, it’s about time Allgeier saw some red zone work. I’m expecting the Falcons to put up some points here, so it seemed like the right time to buy Allgeier for a TD (or two).

Round Robins

You’ve all heard of Forbes’ 30 Under 30, well how about 3 Over 30…?

Ehh, might need some work, but I thought it was a fun way to bet on the three offenses that I expect to have the most success this week. If at least two of them can clear 30 points, I’m in the black, and if they all do, it’s a pretty sweet win.

As for the moneyline (ML) round robin (RR), I think both the Colts and Broncos have certain matchups advantages over the Titans and Chargers, respectively this week, especially as it pertains to passing.

Honestly, I have less confidence in the Giants but their defensive front is a force to be reckoned with and the Bengals can’t cover a pebble with a tarp right now (although apparently they’ve had some private meetings to take ownership of their suckiness…we’ll see).

This would work a lot better if Malik Nabers was cleared to play (nasty concussion), but he wasn’t. Burrow is playing out of his mind, but if he has an off game, the Giants can win this one…but if he’s still on fire, I’m not sure they stand a chance here.

No excuses, play like a champion.