Week 5 was a tough one - obviously for the wallet, but also for the ego, which is perhaps even more damaging.

I was determined to learn from the past couple losing weeks and turn things around in Week 5. I tried to spread it around less and instead go heavier on my more convicted bets.

A few bad beats, a couple injuries, and a couple flat out swing-and-misses later, and I’m now in the red for the year.

In the grand scheme of things, being down after 5 weeks isn’t unrealistic, but the downward slope is unnerving, and watching each bet lose one-by-one on what I can only assume was the longest day of NFL in history, was flat out demoralizing.

Recap and lessons learned below, and then we’re onto Week 6. Nothing to do now but stick to Rule 76…

No excuses, play like a champion. 

Jets vs. Vikings (London)

See my Previous Thoughts for reference

Give & Take: Injuries are part of the game, and they’re the primary risk of betting player props. On one hand, player props are nice because they can hit regardless of who wins or how many points are scored in the game. If the matchup is there, you’re golden. But on the other hand, an injury is an immediate loss, whereas the team you’re leaning towards can still win the game in the absence of the player. It’s a classic give and take situation, and I happen to be on the wrong end of this one.

Aaron Jones exited the game with a hip injury at the end of the first quarter with 7 carries for 29 yards (plus a key reception for 24 yards), which means he was technically on pace for 120+ rushing yards.

He was moving in the first quarter and after he exited the game, the Vikings’ offense looked one-dimensional. Jones’ replacements, Ty Chandler, C.J. Ham, and Myles Gaskin combined for 18 carries for 42 yards in the rest of the game - that’s 2.3 yards per carry, vs. Jones’ 4.1 in the first quarter.

I’m fully convinced if Jones stays healthy in this game, he clears this number with ease (potentially in the first half) and the Vikings win by a whole lot more than 6.

As for the Jets, I stand by my dumpster fire comment, which was essentially proven true with the announcement of Robert Saleh’s firing this week, of which Rodgers claims he had nothing to do with…sure.

Perhaps the fire is now snuffed and we see a dead cat bounce this week, or perhaps the fire continues to burn…one thing’s for sure, everyone will be watching as the Jets play in primetime for the next two weeks in a row.

Ravens vs. Bengals

See my Previous Thoughts for reference

Let Down By All: In a disappointing week, this was by far my most disappointing bet, because I was supremely confident in its success. Looking back on it, this bet still makes sense and I plan to make my way back here.

All had the second most passing snaps and ran the most routes so far this year, but he only received two receptions on as many targets. On one of his receptions he was very close to hurdling a defender with green grass ahead, which would have made this 18.5 line interesting, but it didn’t happen. And it wasn’t like all the targets went to Mike Gesicki either - he finished just 2 catches on 2 targets for 31 yards.

Chase/Higgins: This was clearly a Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins game. Chase had 10 receptions on 12 targets for 193 yards and 2 TDs while Higgins had 9 receptions on 14 targets for 83 yards and 2 TDs. Between the two of them, that’s 67% target share, and if I strip out the running backs, they received 81% of Burrow’s targets. That is an insane stat and I feel like it says a lot about Chase, Higgins, and the Bengals’ offense as a whole, but also the Ravens’ defense…

Panthers vs. Bears

See my Previous Thoughts for reference

Bittersweet: This was bittersweet for me because 1) I was very much on the game script, but 2) I only lost it because the Bears’ offense scored too many points (which as a Bears fan, is a good thing), but also 3) I only lost this by 0.5 points, which is just PAIN. The game total was my last leg in and I only added it because the DraftKings promo required four legs. The O/U was set at 40 so I thought 45.5 would be conservative, but I guess I should have went with an extra 6-7 points instead of 5.5. Oh well, at least this game wasn’t embearassing.

Offense Looking Good? Caleb Williams had another 300+ yard game, DJ Moore was electric, Swift picked up where he left off last week, and Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, Keenan Allen, and even Gerald Everett were all part of the offensive game plan.

This has felt good the past couple weeks, but I’m not looking past the quality of defenses faced…although that won’t change much for the next few weeks anyway.

Bears in playoffs? What? Who said that?!?

Cowboys vs. Steelers (SNF)

See my Previous Thoughts for reference

Fields Of Losses: This was just the worst way to cap off an incredibly long day of horrible bets. This game was delayed 1.5 hours due to weather and I still watched the whole thing, waiting for Justin Fields to take over the game, cash all my bets, and salvage a brutal day of betting.

That didn’t happen. He ended with 6 carries for 27 yards and lost to a Cowboys team that I still think is fraudulent. The Steelers only had 4 red zone snaps (I think) and Fields didn’t rush for any of them. They also won the turnover battle 3-0 and still lost…

Tolbert Or Turpin? The Steelers actually made the Cowboys look competent. Rico Dowdle finished with 87 yards which is nearly 2x more than any other game this year. CeeDee Lamb only had 5 receptions for 62 yards, which by his standards, is generally held in check, but it opened up Tolbert and Turpin (who I constantly confuse).

Jalen Tolbert and KaVontae Turpin looked very fast and combined for 11 receptions for 137 yards. What are these guys doing in Dallas? They play like they should be in Miami’s offense under McDaniels, not McCarthy and Jerry Jones???

Jason Witten Effect: Jake Ferguson also had a nice game with 6 receptions for 70 yards on 7 targets. I always forget he’s only 25 years old, which I 100% attribute to Jason Witten who has conditioned my brain to think every TE in a Cowboys uniform is 40+ and can only run in a straight line.

Saints vs. Chiefs (MNF)

See my Previous Thoughts for reference

Not As Bad As It Looks? I think I was actually mostly on top of this game with one large exception related to Derek Carr (and Chris Jones).

I previously asked: 1) Will Derek Carr be able to handle the pressure from Steve Spagnola (KC DC) and the Chiefs’ defense?, and 2) Will Mahomes be able to navigate the island of misfits that is now his offense?

After watching this game, I think the answers are very clearly No and Yes.

Deep Diving Carr: Derek Carr does not play well under pressure and the Chiefs were able to pressure him on 15 of his 29 dropbacks (52%) which is significantly higher than any other game this season, and for reference, the first two weeks when the Saints’ offense was explosive, he was only pressured on 12% and 27% of his dropbacks, respectively.

His passer rating declined to 89.1 (vs. his Weeks 1-4 average of 104.85) with an adjusted completion percentage of 64.3% (vs. 82.6% in Week 1).

So why did I bet on him? Well, recall Carr has faced Spagnola’s Chiefs defense 5 times in the past few years with the Raiders, in which he averaged 275 passing yards, which is siginficantly above this game’s line of 210.5. The wins might not have been there, but the yards were, and I maintain that his supporting cast with the Saints is notably better than anything he ever had with the Raiders.

BUT, what I didn’t account for was the change in offensive scheme from the Raiders to Klint Kubiak’s Saints, and more specifically, how much Derek Carr is utilized.

In Vegas/Oakland, Carr attempted roughly 30-35 pass attempts per game (averaging ~33 over 9 seasons) whereas he was averaging 25 pass attempts per game heading into MNF against the Chiefs.

That might not sound like a lot in absolute terms, but it’s a 24% reduction, i.e., asking a lot less from Carr.

For instance, with a 70% completion rate and average yard per attempt of 8 yards, that’s 45 yards less per game simply from usage.

Chris Jones Hedge? So if you’re betting on Derek Carr yardage, but concerned about pressure, why not hedge yourself by betting on the Chiefs’ 5-time all pro DT to record a sack at plus money?

Well, I did, but Derek Carr has been extremely good at avoiding sacks this year. He’s only taken 5 (exactly 1 in each game) which paces him out to have nearly 50% lower than his typical average for a year. Once again, Saints asking him to do less = not as much panicking = fewer sacks.

Jones was close on several occasions, particularly when Carr exited the game for injury in the 4th quarter, but he ultimately didn’t get home.

Looking back on it, 2u was aggressive, but at least the Kamara receiving ladder partially cashed, which was placed in the same spirit…pressure=dumpoff to RB.

Chiefs Supporting Cast: As for Mahomes being able to operate an offense without Pacheco, Rice, or Hollywood Brown?…they looked just fine. I was right to assume Kelce’s usage would increase, but 9 receptions on 10 targets for 70 yards? I didn’t think it would be quite that heavy. It felt like we were back to the days of Mahomes having blinders for everyone but Kelce. The big question is whether or not that will continue for the rest of the year.

In the same vein, Noah Gray was a great bet while Justin Watson was NOT. The Chiefs were employing heavy sets - this was a TE and big receiver game, which is not Justin Watson’s forte.

I won’t go as far as to say I should have been on JuJu Smith-Schuster who came out of nowhere with 130 yards on 7 receptions and 8 targets, but at the very least, I should have switched the ladder over to Gray…

Finally, the first touchdowns were actually fun - Gray was 4 yards away from cashing and Juwan Johnson was featured relatively frequently throughout the game. Although Kareem Hunt ultimately stole the show.

Teasers & Parlays

Lessons Learned

Week 5 was a tough pill to swallow. Sure there were a couple bad beats, some injuries, and a Panthers/Bears point away from cutting my losses in half, but that’s how these things go sometimes.

I’m confident that I’m learning myself along the way - I shouldn’t have been on Derek Carr ladders; I shouldn’t have been as heavy on Justin Fields; and I definitely shouldn’t have been on Justin Watson. The signs were there; I just need to get better at not getting caught up in the excitement for the week and actually seeing them before it’s too late.

I also think I’m learning my sources - certain articles, podcasts, and statistics are more helpful than others. That’s not necessarily a constant, but after the last three weeks, I think I’m due for a recalibration on what I rely on the most.

Here’s to moving forward and of course, always sticking to Rule 76.

No excuses, play like a champion.