Keeping this one brief because I need to save my strength in order to recap the destruction to my wallet and ego yesterday. That was a tough one - hopefully tonight can undo some of the damage before the end of the week.

Saints vs. Chiefs

I think this game boils down to two questions: 1) Will Derek Carr be able to handle the pressure from Steve Spagnola (KC DC) and the Chiefs’ defense?, and 2) Will Mahomes be able to navigate the island of misfits that is now his offense?

Carr/Saints: Carr and Spagnola are familiar with each other (via Carr’s previous life with the Raiders) and Carr has actually done surprisingly well, averaging 275 yards per game (in 5 games). There are a many different variables at play here, but that alone is enough for me to take a flyer on him tonight. Other factors at play:

• Chiefs can defend the run,

• Chiefs are favored by 5.5 points,

• Carr arguably has better weapons at his disposal now than with the Raiders.

However, he’s also playing with a makeshift offensive line, without Taysom Hill, and against Chris Jones. I expect Carr to be getting rid of the ball quickly tonight, and hopefully to Kamara via check downs and screens, but also that Chris Jones gets home at least once, particularly in a losing game script.

Mahomes/Chiefs: How long can they keep this up? If it wasn’t for the Chiefs’ defense, I’d be ready to fade them hard, or at least for the first half, but Mahomes always seems to find a way, no matter his supporting cast. Without Rice, Pacheco, and Hollywood Brown, this offense looks a lot different than we thought it would in preseason.

Last week, in Rice’s absence, Travis Kelce, Justin Watson, and Noah Gray all saw increased usage (which makes sense). There are other options for tonight as well, but Mahomes has multiple seasons of familiarity with all of those guys, so I’m expecting more of the same, although I typically shy away from playing Kelce Overs given his popularity inflation.

I also expect we’ll see a healthy dose of Kareem Hunt who got the majority of snaps last week after another Carson Steele fumble, but that situation is a little too fresh for me.

As for the first touchdowns, I just wanted something fun to root for in the red zone - another 0.5u is just a drop in the bucket of Week 5 losses.

No excuses, play like a champion.