Rough Sailing On Smooth Seas: Thursday Night was rough. I’ve tried to narrow my focus and hone in on my highest conviction bets while still having something fun to root for in each of the windows on Sunday, but it’s a tough balance.

However, that’s where teasers, round robins (RRs), and a few low-stakes long-shot parlays come in handy. If Erick All and Justin Fields come through, I think I’ll come out on top this week, but if they don’t, I might need to get lucky with some of the longer shots.

It’s do or die time - a bad week here puts me in the red on the year…

Bring it on.

Jets vs. Vikings

Are the Jets a smoldering dumpster fire right now? I feel like the lid is closed, but the match is lit, and three weeks from now after three primetime games against an arguably superior divisional opponent (Bills) and two of the three best defenses in the league (Vikings and Steelers), we might have a full blaze on display.

Numerous counts of friction between Saleh, Rodgers, and Hackett (I’d throw in a link but there are so many instances), Davante Adams trade rumors, cryptic Rodgers injuries, and the list goes on - all after an ugly loss to the Broncos.

In fairness, this could all easily be a case of the media blowing things out of proportion, but it’s tough to make an argument that things are currently going well in the Jets’ locker room, right? Meanwhile, the Vikings are simply thriving. Who do I trust more to move their operations over the Atlantic Ocean and be ready to play? Definitely Minnesota..

And while, if I’m correct three weeks from now, I will certainly circle back to this, I’m not totally sure right now, and Rodgers still has the natural ability to directly impact a game, particularly in a back-door scenario, so I’m reserving my Vikings -2 units for other use.

Enter Aaron Jones: Keep it simple here. This has the potential to work regardless of game script. Weather is a bit of a question mark (potential rain and wind - although Tottenham’s stadium supposedly blocks wind relatively well). Tony Pollard put up 62, Jordan Mason had 147, and last week Javonte Williams had 77 (recall I had the Under there, and for solid reasons too). Trends favor the home team in London. I think the Jets are bad. This bet encapsulates all of that.

I’ll have a BEC burrito, add potatoes and 64 yards from Aaron Jones to go please. See you in the morning.

Ravens vs. Bengals

Highest Conviction Play of the Day

Surely I must be missing something here? The Ravens have allowed 98 yards to Brock Bowers, 34 to Kelce, 95 to Ferguson, and 47 to Kincaid. Erick All has 4 receptions on 4 targets in each of the last three games for 32, 22, and 28 yards. He’s not TE1, but he gets his work in. Plus, he’s physical which has to be necessary against the Ravens, right (Exhibit A: the Bills)?

Bengals fans legitimately think they have a George Kittle on their hands. I won’t go that far, but I just don’t see his usage materially declining here. His receptions line is 2.5 at +112 which also doesn’t make sense to me, so much so that I psyched myself out and just went with the yards, but I love them both and would play a reception ladder to 4 if it was available. Apparently the books see it differently given the lines, which always makes me nervous, but I have to go with my gut here and get my money on the table.

Other Thoughts:

• I’ve heard enough this week (podcasts, articles, etc.) to know that many experts are on the Bengals here. It does seem like it should be their spot (Ravens coming off big win, Bengals generally undervalued, Bengals at home, divisional matchup, etc.), but until I see evidence of the Bengals’ defense actually being able to stop Derrick Henry, I’ll spread my units elsewhere.

Panthers vs. Bears

Bear Down Or Bears Let Down? I don’t typically like to bet on games that involve my Bears, but the game script seems fairly predictable here (at least from the side of the Panthers’ offense), and Draftkings had a 50% profit boost for 4-leg SGPs.

Andy Dalton and the Panther’s receiving crew have performed admirably but, at the risk of conceitedly jinxing them, the Bears’ pass defense is a legitimate step up in class.

That said, they aren’t stopping the run very well - 82 to Tony Pollard, 94 to Kyren Williams, and 110 to Jonathan Taylor. Meanwhile, Chuba Hubbard has been running really well (64, 114, and 104 in his last three).

Finally, I’ll be the first to admit that even though Carolina’s defense isn’t necessarily elite, the Bears don’t currently have the kind of offense that could totally exploit it and blow an alt total points line out of the water.

Don’t let me down Bears, it’ll be so embarrassing if you let me down here.

Cowboys vs. Steelers (SNF)

ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED: Is this not the perfect spot for [the new] Justin Fields?!? Two historic franchises, on primetime, Steelers coming off a tough loss, and the Cowboys are injured beyond belief. Plus they can’t stop the run to begin with. As for QB rushing, Deshaun Watson had 39 yards, Derek Carr had a rushing TD, and Lamar had 87 yards with a TD.

Justin Fields coming off a tough loss, on primetime ready to silence those Caleb Williams-supporting Bears fans (👀), and maybe there’s a little weather in the forecast against an indoor dome team with injuries. I can say it 100 different ways and there’s just no outcome other than Justin Fields standing in the end zone looking out on the crowd with his arms outstretched like Maximus Decimus Meridius in Gladiator …perhaps fumbles or injuries can prevent that outcome but let’s not talk about either of those.

But seriously, a week ago I wouldn’t have enough confidence in the Steelers’ offense (as a whole) to bet PIT -2.5. But seeing them last week, even though it was a loss, gives me that confidence (more thoughts in my recap from last week).

Ceedee Lamb is good enough to take over any defense so what if the Cowboys jump out to a 7- or 14-point lead? Before last week, I never would have thought the Steelers’ offense could manufacture a double digit comeback…but they did, and it wasn’t a fluke.

So I’m not scared of betting on the Steelers anymore and I don’t care who knows it!

There’s even a chance I go back to the well here and bet alt lines if the earlier Sunday slates go well (PIT -6.5 +172, -9.5 +250, and -15.5 +520).

Teasers & Parlays

No excuses, play like a champion.