Baker finished with 6 carries for 42 yards (vs. his line of 9.5). In other words, I nailed it. But once again my bets don’t reflect that due to a variety of reasons (see below) that all typically result in me striking an imbalance between strict discipline/conviction and forcing it for added entertainment when watching the game.

There is a balance to be had, but I certainly didn’t find it last night. That said, the game was awesome to watch, the sweats were real, and we got back-to-back primetime games with 60+ points.

Let’s reflect…

Buccaneers vs. Falcons

See my Previous Thoughts for reference

Mr. 500: Kirk Cousins was locked in and the offense was flowing for most of the game. The Bucs did get to him 4 times and he threw 1 INT but otherwise Kirk was on fire and finished 42/58 for 509 yards and 4 TDs. Of the 7 Falcons players who caught passes, only the two RBs finished with fewer than 60+ yards and Darnell Mooney and Drake London each finished with 100+.

In other words, it would have been hard to miss if betting on the Falcons’ offense. Initial signs pointed to Kirk having time to throw but their inconsistency to date and his age were enough to keep me off. Guess I should have went Swag Surfin’ with Kirko.

Godwin’s Odd Quarters: Chris Godwin started with 34 receiving yards in the first quarter but then went silent in the second quarter. Still, right on pace for O 68.5 at the half, especially in a close game.

Not worried - especially after he comes out with 30 more yards in the third quarter, putting him at 64 with over 20 minutes of game clock left to play. He should clear that easily, right? WRONG.

Rollercoaster Of Emotions: But the real kicker was that the Bucs were driving late in the game, rapidly approaching the red zone and a potential game-sealing TD when Bucky Irving FUMBLED and turned it over.

My Godwin hopes were toast, as were my Godwin/Otton/Mayfield TD bets. The only way for Godwin to clear his number would be for Cousins to march down the field and quickly score with enough time for the Bucs to run another series. Tall task. 

The Falcons promptly turn it over on a 4th and 15. The Bucs get the ball back but they’re up 3 with 1:52 left to play. No shot they’re passing to Godwin. Correct. Time for bed.

But the Bucs conveniently go backwards 15 yards and have to punt. Hold on a tic…if Cousins can go all the way down the field (with no timeouts) and set up a game-tying field goal, Godwin might still have a chance in OT?!? Let’s go Kirko!

Sure enough, he puts them on Tampa’s 28 and spikes it with ONE second left on the clock.

It’s Koo time. The rest went like this:

• Delay of game.

• Back to Koo time.

• It’s good. Godwin is alive.

• Overtime.

• Falcons get the ball first.

• Falcons score.

• Game over.

Godwin and the Bucs never saw the ball again, and with that, another practically breakeven day turns to negative.

Not the start I wanted to Week 5…

Reflection

My own research suggested both QBs would have success last night, pointing me in the direction of both offenses, the Over, and Baker rushing. But I let other opinions (podcasts, articles, etc.) temper my own conviction and removed myself from the Over and the Falcons entirely.

Rather than being content with what was left (Baker rushing), I ventured out and effectively forced it with Godwin and Otton, in what I thought would be hedging myself against Baker…but also giving me something else to root for.

And even though the research behind the bets was supportive, the yardage bets are essentially 50-50 plays, so with normal conviction levels, I should really only expect one to hit anyway.

And there’s no reason I should have been on three different Bucs to score a TD, especially when Mike Evans isn’t one of them. Again, the rationale was there, and the prices didn’t seem bad, but it was a bit of a force.

That said, I don’t regret the gut reaction to sprinkle 0.5u and 0.25u on Baker TD and 2 TD, respectively given the price delta to Draftkings; it’s the extra 0.5u I put on Baker TD later in the day that irks me. That should have went to either doubling down on his rushing line of 9.5 or towards a ladder (25+, 40+, etc.) because that’s where my true conviction lay.

The red zone has high variance, but Baker’s prices already reflected that - I was just chasing the thrill of the juicy numbers, which can be fine, but it’s a dangerous precedent, especially when I only had 20% of my total value at risk on my highest conviction play.

What’s done is done and now it’s time to turn the page.

No excuses, play like a champion.