Coming off a breakeven Week 4, I’m looking to get back in the black in Week 5, and it all starts here on TNF with the Bucs at Falcons, two relatively untrustworthy NFC South teams coming off big wins with a close spread and normal points total. Let’s dive in.

Side Note: As I start to venture outside the nest with this newsletter, a very big welcome to new subscribers and of course, don’t be shy about sharing with other friends who may be interested.

Happy football, everyone!

Buccaneers vs. Falcons

Baker Time

After researching, I only have clear vision regarding one concept: Baker Mayfield rushing. This is a prime time Divisional matchup and the Falcons always play close games. If you don’t think Baker is putting his body on the line tonight, you’re crazy.

And apparently Fanduel is crazy because Baker TD was priced at +800 (vs. Draftkings +425) and 2 TD was +12000 (vs. Draftkings +5000). That’s the kind of price delta you typically don’t see between those two major books, and Baker already has 2 TDs this year which is more than anyone else on the team not named Mike Evans or Chris Godwin. What am I missing here?

So earlier in the day, I immediately snagged the TD and 2TD with 0.5u and 0.25u, respectively before the price dropped. Fast-forward to now and I’m so fired up about it that I had to throw another 0.5u on it to use the Fanduel 30% profit boost.

I also put a unit on his rushing line - Over 9.5 yards (Fanduel). He’s over this in 3/4 games with the exception of Denver in Week 3 which was just a pretty weird game for the Bucs. It’s not absurdly priced like his TDs (in my opinion), but it’s low enough for me to go for it.

Can you imagine if he runs in a 10-yard TD?!? I think I might get evicted.

Figuring Out The Rest

At this point of writing, I’m only on Baker, but there’s a Draftkings 50% profit boost out there with my name on it, so I need to flush out the rest of this game - let’s see what happens…

Post-Writing Spoiler Alert: I’m on Chris Godwin and Cade Otton as well. Honestly, it’d probably be smarter to just go with Bucs ML or +2.5, but the fact that the line has moved in the Falcons’ favor has me a little freaked out. My bias below is all Bucs and the bets just kind of happened, but stepping back, now I’m a little nervous.

Okay, back to the writing and discovery process that led me to Godwin/Otton… 

Initial Similarities: According to PFF, both teams have a decent offensive line mismatches in the passing game, but not necessarily in the running game.

However, it appears both defenses tend to be weaker against outside zone runs, which doesn’t clarify a whole lot, but it probably favors Bijan Robinson over Tyler Allgeier and Rachaad White over Bucky Irving. Let’s flush that out.

Ground Game

• Falcons: Bijan Robinson is the lead back and runs zone type runs on 90% of his carries (vs. 74% for Allgeier). However, Allgeier has been the more efficient runner overall and has seen his attempts and split % rise, particularly last week when Robinson injured his shoulder. Robinson remains the more dynamic back and is used almost exclusively [vs. Allgeier] in the pass game. One thing is for sure, Todd Bowles (Bucs DC) will bring the rain, so Cousins will likely be under pressure often. Between the zone run advantages and the idea of it being a close game with more 3rd down situations where a passing back is needed, I think Bijan still gets the majority of snaps tonight (not a huge revelation, I know).

  • But his rushing yards line is set at 59.5, which he hasn’t been over in a few weeks. He’s averaging 4.1 yards per attempt (YPA) with a decent amount of variance, but that means he probably needs ~15 carries to hit 60 yards tonight, and even if the outside zone run game is working, I’m not sure I can trust him for 15 attempts. Pass.

• Bucs: Rachaad White was the lead back but appears to now be splitting carries with Bucky Irving. However, White runs zone concepts on 68% of his attempts, vs. 31% for Irving, so if the whole both defenses are weak against the zone run thing is actually true, then White should see the majority of snaps tonight. He’s also been steadily increasing both his yards per attempt and yards after contact per attempt and is technically fighting for his job.

  • However, Irving’s rushing line of 44.5 is set higher than White’s at 34.5, which makes me think the books know something I don’t. Pass. 

Pass Game

So that brings us back to the pass game. Initially, I’m loving the Bucs and hating the Falcons, but that’s probably due to recency and familiarity bias.

According to PFF, Chris Godwin has an “Excellent” matchup tonight while Mike Evans has “Good”, Drake London and Ray-Ray McCloud have “Average”, and Sterling Shepard and Darnell Mooney have “Below Average”.

Two things seem fairly consistent across podcasts and articles I’ve consumed, the Falcons’ offense is still evolving and Todd Bowles (TB DC) will blitz, often.

Cousins & The Blitz: Kirk Cousins isn’t automatically terrible against the blitz, but if it’s effective, Cousins’ QBR declines from 106 (11th out of 32) in a clean pocket to 44 (29th out of 32) when under pressure. And obviously he’s not exactly mobile, so I’d expect him to have some trouble tonight, which is enough to keep me off of most Atlanta offensive props, but since he’s a veteran and that offense is still evolving (i.e., uncertainty for me, a mere spectator), it’s not enough for me to sell out on the Bucs ML. I could deal with Bucs +3, but that’s not the line.

Baker In The Zone: Also fairly consistent across my research platforms is the fact that Atlanta tends to play zone defense at a high rate and Baker does better against zone, however, it’s worth noting Zac Robinson (Falcons OC) used to coach Baker in LA a couple years ago, so if anyone knows Baker’s strengths, it’s him. Coming off my horrendous Kyler Murray bets that featured a similar dynamic with the Commanders’ OC, Kliff Kingsbury who was Kyler’s former head coach in Arizona, I’m not so willing to jump back on that train.

Godwin In The Zone? So if I’m not willing to bank on a huge night from Baker (through the air), who gets theirs tonight. Both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin seem like they always do, but against zone-heavy matchups, Godwin seems like the safer bet. His target percentage (on routes run) leads receivers and he’s only not caught one pass against zone so far this year. He’s also favored to lead the game in receiving yards, but that also means he has the highest line (68.5), which I don’t love, but he’s over this in 3/4 games this year (with the weird Denver game being the outlier). In a close divisional matchup, I feel fine going with the chalk and banking on Baker finding his favorite target so far this year.

Devil’s Advocate: Mike Evans is a monster and can always just take over a game. The Bucs are also without their #3 and #4 receivers, Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer tonight, which means there’s at least a handful of targets up for grabs. Those could easily fall into the Evans or Godwin orbits, but they could also go to Cade Otton or Sterling Shepard, both of which have highly obtainable lines (30.5 and 20.5, respectively), and those lines have been inching up (meaning I’m not way off base here). If I have to take one, I’m going with Otton. Once again, divisional matchup and an expectedly close game, go with the more trustworthy option. Cade has seen 7 and 8 targets for 47 and 52 yards, respectively the past two weeks. Let’s see if he can keep the ball rolling.

Reflection

So there you have it - that’s how you rationalize betting a game in which you don’t have a strong read and your lean seems like a trap.

Hey, it’s TNF…anything can happen - let’s just hope Baker woke up feeling dangerous…

No excuses, play like a champion.