Performance Update

Week 4: This week was practically breakeven, but technically in the red. I was down 0.1 units (-0.1u), or a -0.3% return.

Cumulatively, I’m still in the black at +3.2u, or a +4.3% return, which is still largely thanks to a fabulous Week 1.

Reflection Time: Mirror, Mirror On The Wall…Why Can’t I Win Them All? I’m pretty happy to be in positive territory after 4 Weeks, but this is technically three losing weeks in a row which doesn’t feel great. Saving grace is that momentum is moving in the right direction; however my Week 1 cushion has steadily eroded and I’m now one bad week away from dipping into the red on the season.

Oh well, there’s only one thing to say…No excuses, play like a champion.

Week 4 Lookaheads

See my Previous Thoughts for reference

Steelers vs. Colts

Well, that didn’t go as expected. Anthony Richardson gets hurt but stays in the game and two plays later, Shane Steichen calls a QB run?!? What in the careless whisper was that all about?!?

Richardson exits the game permanently and in comes Joe Flacco, which is somehow an even higher degree of variance than Richardson (at least in my opinion).

As silly as it may sound, had I known Joe Flacco would play the majority of this game, I never would have bet the Under.

But I know, I know, that’s how injuries go; stick to Rule 76…

Other Thoughts

• Injuries aside, the Colts’ ability to challenge the Steelers on the ground should have raised a yellow flag high enough for me to stay off this one. I think I’ll take a break from Lookaheads for a little while. Turns out, I’m not as think as I smart I am.

• Should Steelers fans be optimistic about this loss? There’s bound to be a game or two where the defense gets beat, but the fact that Justin Fields and this offense showed the capacity to play-from-behind has to be promising, right? I certainly wouldn’t have thought this would be a nail-biter after the Steelers went down 14-0 in the first quarter.

Saints vs. Falcons & Chiefs vs. Chargers

• Both of these bets and rationale behind them were fairly on point, but neither mattered once the Steelers/Colts blew the lid off of their game.

• The Chiefs are the shakiest 4-0 I’ve ever seen. They are a few plays and calls away from being 0-4, but at this point I feel like that’s just Chiefs football.

  • Rashee Rice ripped up his knee on a Patrick Mahomes tackle (yes, you read that correctly), so now the offense is without Rice, Pacheco, and Hollywood Brown…tough look for the postseason. The three-peat just got a whole lot harder.

Broncos vs. Jets

See my Previous Thoughts for reference

Let’s start with the good. I was very right about Lazard. His first three receptions all came on one no-huddle drive where Rodgers targeted him 4-5 times in a row while Garrett Wilson was presumably blanketed by Patrick Surtain. Lazard finished with 5 receptions on 8 targets for 58 yards. Connection much?

The fade Garrett Wilson thought was also correct (he finished with 41 yards), as was the Bo Nix Under 180 passing yards (he finished with 60…), but neither made it in my final bet slip.

Now to the bad…the Javonte Williams call was very, very wrong. Now, it’s worth pointing out Tyler Badie, who was a major part of the equation here, and who also started the game, left with a scary injury after just one carry. Without him in the mix, Williams was able to get the 12+ attempts needed to clear his number.

But I have to admit, he finished with 4.8 yards per attempt which I confidently said he wouldn’t do. Rule 76…

Speaking of bad, the Jets? Gross. You let me down when I specifically asked you not to!

Bengals vs. Panthers

See my Previous Thoughts for reference

Victory Lap: Sometimes it just goes perfectly. Pretty much everything I laid out in my Previous Thoughts was spot on. It’s not that hard, why can’t every team just do exactly what I think they’re going to do???

Other Thoughts

• Both offenses are looking good, but I’m not willing to totally buy either yet based on the weakness of both defenses.

  • Panthers take on my Bears next week, which is a legitimate step up in class.

  • Bengals play the Ravens…they might need an elevator to get to that class.

Commanders vs. Cardinals

See my Previous Thoughts for reference

Bengals Eraser: As amazing as the Bengals game was, this game was equally as horrible. The Cardinals did exactly what I was hoping they wouldn’t do and ran it 32 times, and only 1 of those was Kyler.

Despite a positive first drive which resulted in the Marvin Harrison TD, the passing attack just wasn’t there all game. Do the Commanders have a good defense? I’m just so confused why nothing worked.

If I go back and look at my prep, this bet still makes sense: Kyler’s ADOT, Commander’s defense, zone defense, home, etc. This isn’t the same as the Steelers/Colts bet where I should have known better. This one should have been right - the Cardinals just didn’t show up.

Are The Commanders Good? Honestly, I would have thought this box score would have been completely swapped - from the scoring down to the player stats and play calls. The Commanders were spectacular and it’s tough to say they’re not the most exciting team in football right now. However, three wins against the Cardinals, Bengals, and Giants aren’t exactly refrigerator material. Let’s see how they do against the Ravens in two weeks.

Ertz, Don’t It? It does, it really really does. Ertz finished with 3 receptions on 3 targets for 22 yards. But here’s the thing, he caught a fourth pass for a two-point conversion late in the game. My dumb brain thought that would count as a reception and help offset Kyler’s lack of passing. Turns out, two-point conversions don’t count toward stats. I think deep down I knew that, but definitely forgot in the moment. This was a heartbreaker.

Bills vs. Ravens (SNF)

See my Previous Thoughts for reference

Quoth The Raven…Talk about stepping up in class. The Bills were 3-0 heading into this game, but their wins came against the Cardinals, a mostly Tua-less Dolphins, and the Jaguars.

The Ravens manhandled the Bills, starting with their very first play from scrimmage - Derrick Henry 87 yards untouched to the house. Henry finished with 24 carries for 199 yards and just bullied the Bills all night.

Vulture Kincaid: Given the beatdown, I’m actually surprised Khalil Shakir 5+ receptions didn’t hit. I mentioned in my Previous Thoughts that Dalton Kincaid was a threat to vulture Shakir’s slot targets, which turned out to be true - Kincaid finished with 5 receptions on 7 targets for 47 yards - but I also thought there would be enough to go around, which appears to be true given Shakir finished with 62 yards, but 52 of those came on a broken Josh Allen miracle play, so actually, there wasn’t really enough.

Are the Bills relying too heavily on their relatively inferior supporting cast? Mack Hollins had 6 targets but only 1 reception for 5 yards. And since when is Marquez Valdes-Scantling on the Bills?

Not much else to say - Bet the Board’s best prop bet this week was Shakir O 3.5 receptions at -150. It was priced down to nearly -200 by the time I got there and I got greedy by stepping up to 5+. But similar to the Kyler bets, I don’t regret this one and feel like it should have hit.

Seahawks vs. Lions

See my Previous Thoughts for reference

Yet again, the Seahawks and Lions deliver. What a game…71 points on MNF?!?

As for the bets, I was more mixed than I would have liked. Two thoughts:

• If you read my Previous Thoughts, it was clear that I was more confident in Jahmyr Gibbs than David Montgomery for a multitude of reasons. But even though Montgomery’s lines were higher, I decided to include him anyway.

  • Wrong. Too greedy, too aggressive.

• That said, in the first half, all of these were tracking extremely well. Both Gibbs and Montgomery were stomping all over the Seahawks, JSN had a few receptions for 20-something yards, Kenneth Walker was getting nowhere, and even Brock Wright had a couple receptions, including one 4 yards shy of a TD. But because Seattle kept responding, this game turned into a shootout and as a result, Montgomery’s usage went way down. I was still hoping he’d get there in the final minutes of the 4th quarter but it just wasn’t meant to be. I needed to trust my gut better than that.

Other Thoughts

• Mad props to both QBs. Geno Smith was 38/56 for 395 yards while Goff only threw 18 times, but he didn’t have a single incompletion…and he also caught a TD pass from Amon-Ra-St. Brown. So cool, so fun.

• Both defenses have their holes, but both should be legit contenders. The Lions finally smoothed out their offense while Seattle showed they can compete with the big dawgs.

Looking Ahead

There’s plenty more to cover from Week 4, but that’s it for me. Let’s hope I can keep the positive momentum going in Week 5. Like I said, I’m grounding myself from betting lookaheads, but that doesn’t mean I can’t look ahead.

• Vikings -2.5 hosting the Jets is fishy. Shouldn’t the Vikings be favored by more than that?

• Ravens -2.5 against the Bengals - same thing. Shouldn’t the Ravens be favored by more than this?

• Jaguars -2.5 hosting the Colts…but aren’t the Jaguars pretty bad? Why are they favored here?

• Packers -3 against the Rams - would have expected a bigger number here.

• Saints @ Chiefs U 43.5 - I just see a lot of field goals in the future for this game.

Let’s see what this week’s research turns up. Stay tuned for TNF (TB/ATL), a Bye-shortened slate on Sunday, and back to 1 MNF game this week (NO/KC).

Happy football, everyone!