NFL Week 3 Betting Recap

Packers vs. Titans

Is this real life? Did Malik Willis really go 13-19 for 202 yards with 1 TD and 0 INT, and then 73 yards rushing on 6 carries and another TD? And did Tony Pollard only rush 6 times for 14 yards?!?

Remember I’m a Bears fan, and I just simply can’t escape the wrath of the Packers.

Well, Max Power, how about you stop betting against them? Hey, how about you shut up. At least the Caleb Williams and the Bears look great and there are definitely no problems there.

0-2. Next.

Ravens vs. Cowboys

Ravens Gonna Ravens: This game wasn’t as close as the final score suggests, but the Ravens Ravens’d and allowed the Cowboys to score 19 unanswered points in the 4th quarter, and the Cowboys were 1 defensive stop away from a chance to tie or even win. Scary for Ravens fans and bettors everywhere.

Regardless, BAL ML and BAL -1.5 still cashes (although I was too scared to put it in), along with my single TD bet and half of Lamar’s rushing ladder (and only 3 short yards away from another rung).

Excluding that horrific 4th quarter, Lamar was very good - only 12-15 for 182 yards 1 TD and 0 INT through the air but 87 yards on 14 carries and a TD on the ground.

Lamar was actually the best non-RB runner of Week 3 by yards and PFF grade. Between that and Derrick Henry going for 151 yards and 2 TD on 25 carries, the Ravens simply bullied the Cowboys on the ground.

The Cowboys now face the Giants on a short week (TNF) - are we taking Devin Singletary?!? We’ll see…

Meanwhile the Ravens will host the 3-0 Bills on SNF. Do I smell a 4th quarter Josh Allen comeback? 50% profit boost Live bet loading…

Cardinals vs. Lions

Blame It On The Kyler: This game was tough to watch given my bet slip. The Lions controlled the game on the ground and it worked. David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs combined for nearly 40 carries for 200 yards. They possessed the ball for more than 60% of the game but Goff only threw the ball 23 times.

With the Lion’s pass-catching weapons and no weather implications, I would have expected to see more here. Jameson Williams ended with 1 reception for 9 yards on 3 targets, tanking all straight bets, ladders and same-game parlays (SGPs).

Clearly the game plan was Montgomery and Gibbs, and again, it worked, so who do I really have to blame here?

How about Kyler Murray and the Cardinals!

Kyler only ran 5 times for 45 yards, enough to cash his over, but not much else. The weird part is, his scrambling seemed to be working early in the game but for an unexplainable reason (to me), it was not a focus for the rest of the game. Instead, it seemed like Kyler was trying to force the ball downfield, often to no avail.

To that point, I was curious where Kyler finished the week in average depth of target (ADOT) vs. other QBs, and shocker, he was #1 with 12.4 yards (vs. the Week 3 League average of 7.7).

The Lions’ pass coverage is average (at best) but force feeding the ball down the field isn’t going to work against many teams in the NFL. Kyler attempted 8 passes over 20 yards and only completed 1…

The sticking point for me is, thinking about the game script, had Kyler continued to scramble, does that 1) continue to work and end up cashing my Kyler ladders?, and 2) make the game closer, or even put the Cardinals ahead and force the Lions to pass the ball more, and potentially get Jameson Williams more involved?

I’m no expert, but I feel like that’s how the game should have gone and that the time of possession and passing attempts imbalance (below) should have been more equal.

Chiefs vs. Falcons

Deja Vu: I feel like we’ve seen this game 1,000 times before. The Chiefs don’t look incredible, but their defense shows up when needed, questionable calls go their way, the Under hits, and they end up winning a game that probably shouldn’t have been as close as it was.

The Falcons no-bet was definitely the right choice. It seems like Bijan Robinson was the shut-down target as he finished with only 31 rushing yards on 16 carries and 21 receiving yards on two receptions and targets.

It turns out Kyle Pitts would have been a good bet - he finished with 59 yards vs. his pregame line of ~40-ish, but he was by no means dominant like Isaiah Likely and Mike Gesicki were in previous weeks. No regrets there.

Honestly, I really only cared about Rashee Rice here and it was by no means a sweat. The Bet the Board guys nailed it and Rice cashed his Over with relative ease, finishing with 110 yards and 1 TD on 12 receptions and 14 targets. We’ll have to watch for Rice vs. Zone matchups in the future…

Commanders vs. Bengals (MNF)

Right For The Wrong Reasons: My optimism on the Commanders (or more appropriately Bengals pessimism) stemmed from the Bengal’s inability to stop the run in previous weeks. I thought the Commanders would make this a competitive game, but I figured it would be because they would take a very similar approach as the Lions vs. the Cardinals - run the ball and control the clock.

As it turns out, Washington went with the shootout approach…and…it worked.

Jayden Daniels was sensational. 21-23 for 254 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. Plus, he actually did scramble a fair amount, although it was more when he needed to, not when he wanted to - which benefitted the Commanders’ offense, but saw his 39 rushing yards fall short of his line of 49.5.

What was more surprising to me was the complete lack of effectiveness from Brian Robinson Jr. But it wasn’t for any lack of trying - he finished with 16 carries but only for 33 yards. That’s 2.1 yards per attempt, nearly last among 20 RBs with 13+ attempts (only ahead of D’Andre Swift and Bijan Robinson, which is not welcome company in Week 3).

This is where my football fan ignorance comes in because I simply don’t understand how Rhamondre Stevenson and Isiah Pacheco could have so much success against Cincinnati but Robinson, a generally similar back, was just a magnet for the line of scrimmage. He was never even close to cashing his Over and it just doesn’t make sense.

Thankfully, the Commanders kept feeding him, particularly in the red zone, so he was able to get in for a TD and was inches away from scoring his second, which would have quickly changed the dynamic of the week (from a betting perspective).

I’ve never actually been upset to see an offensive lineman catch a TD pass. It’s so fun and I put myself in a position where I couldn’t enjoy it. Thanks a lot, Robinson. Is there a way I can blame Kyler Murray here? Hmm…

Week 3 Honorable Mentions

• Giants vs. Browns: Well this would have worked out. Nabers and Robinson both cashed their Overs and a Robinson ladder would have been nice.

• Raiders vs. Panthers: Sheesh, tough look for Bryce Young, huh? Dalton goes for +300 yards with 3 TD and 0 INT, but it wasn’t as much Thielen on the the other end of that, but Diontae Johnson?!? Welcome back, kid. 8-14 for 122 yards and a TD.

• 49ers vs. Rams: Good no-play here. Flow chart was working but then Stafford happened and the Rams came from behind to win outright. I like Brandon Aiyuk but after all the offseason drama and finally signing a $120m extension, Jauan Jennings (who makes a quarter of that) going for 175 yards and 3 TD is objectively funny.

• Buccaneers vs. Broncos: This would have been a good play. It was indeed a major letdown for the Bucs as Bo Nix and the Broncos absolutely steamrolled them 26-7. But who could have seen a thrashing of that magnitude coming?

• Jaguars vs. Bills (MNF): Good no-play here. It was over in the first 5 minutes of the game. Josh Allen was peppering the Jags’ defense and Trevor Lawrence and the Jags’ offense had no answers. Turns out the Josh Allen rushing prop would have hit, but it was close - I didn’t see an air raid of this extent coming.

Week 3 Takeaways, Lessons Learned, & Week 4 Preview

Get Off The Ladder: After hitting some good plus money alt lines in Week 1, I’ve been chasing in Weeks 2 and 3, which is simply a lack of discipline. Had I just played straight lines on my laddered prop bets, I would have gone 3-5, which isn’t terribly exciting, but it’s a winning week and a much more sustainable approach than hitting 1 big ladder every 3-4 weeks.

Plus, the one time I stayed off the ladder (Rashee Rice), it would have cashed in full.

It’s giving hit/stand on 16 vs. 10 in blackjack. Sure, there’s a “correct” answer there, but it’s close enough that you really just want to be consistent above all else.

It’s tough to not get sucked in by the “what if” of those higher rungs - there’s nothing better than calling a specific player’s big game perfectly, but in reality it’s just a good way to compound losses and/or eat into your winnings on the straight Over/Under.

Choose Your Spots: That said, I’m happy with my approach (vs. Week 2) as it pertains to showing restraint in certain situations where my conviction level wasn’t quite as high. Honestly, it was a busy work week and I didn’t have as much time to “study”, so only betting on 5 games is growth (at least for me).

Week 4 Initial Thoughts: Here’s our slate for next week - initial games grabbing my attention are Steelers/Colts (Under), Broncos/Jets (fading Broncos offense), Eagles/Bucs (Bucs bounce back), and Chiefs/Chargers (fading Chiefs ATS with a big number against a divisional opponent).

Happy football, everyone!