Lookaheads

Seeking Closing Line Value: I placed these two bets on Tuesday morning, which means technically I don’t think they’re lookaheads but it was before I did any research on the week, so that’s what I’m calling it. Remember, for Lookaheads, I’m trying to create “value” by locking in a number that I think will move (ideally in my favor) by Sunday - if successfully done, this is called closing line value (CLV).

• PIT/IND: Pittsburgh Unders are like a bowl of chili on a crisp autumn afternoon - it just feels right. I haven’t seen anything from the Colts’ offense to make me think they can overpower the Steelers’ defense, and the Steelers’ offense doesn’t seem like a 30+ point team to me either. However, I’ve started to feel a little anxious about the lack of movement on this Total. It opened at 40 and as of now, it’s still at 40, and I’ve even seen it at 40.5 at some books. Plus, I’ve heard some takes on the Colts exposing Pittsburgh with its run game… I still feel good about this, but not as good as before as it’s teetering on negative CLV. 47 feels better in the teaser but I’m still more nervous than I’d like to be.

• NO/ATL: To me, this was as simple as expecting a close outcome from an important divisional matchup. I placed this before I understood the extent of both teams’ recent offensive line injuries, although I don’t think that really changes my expectation. Atlanta appears to have the advantage, and the line has moved against me by 1-point (negative CLV), but I think I’m comfortable with a 9-point buffer in any non-Panthers NFC South matchup.

• KC/LAC: I thought about this game in a similar vein as NO/ATL, plus some other factors: divisional matchup, the Chiefs tend to play with their food which makes them less likely to cover large spreads, and Harbaugh doesn’t strike me as the kind of coach who would allow a divisional blowout. Also similar to NO/ATL, I didn’t quite realize the extent of LAC’s injuries, which honestly isn’t great but hopefully Harbaugh can muddy the waters enough that KC can’t run away with this one. The line has since moved 0.5-1-point in my favor (yay, positive CLV)!

Broncos vs. Jets

J-E-T-S: I’m anti-Broncos here. They’re coming off a huge win against a Bucs team that was primed for a let down spot, and I really like the idea of fading a rookie QB playing away against the Jets’ defense.

Bo Nix passing yards is in the 180 range, which is too low for me in a game where there is garbage yard potential. His interception prop is juiced to -176 (64% implied probability) which seems fair. Pass.

Broncos team total points is at 15.5 which is way lower than I thought it would be. Crazy things can happen outside of Bo Nix struggling, and it is the Jets after all. The same reasoning applies to Jets -7.5. Pass.

Brandon Anderson at the Action Network had an interesting idea to fade Garrett Wilson going up against one of the best shutdown corners in the league, Patrick Surtain. To be fair, it’s a widely covered narrative, but I heard it from Anderson first and his argument was laid out well.

However, Wilson’s line is set at 55.5, which I think seems fairly low for a WR1 whose team is favored by 7.5 points. Surtain has certainly had success limiting WR1s in the past, but will the Jets be able to scheme up ways to separate Wilson from him? And will the Broncos’ expected offensive struggles simply give the Jets too many offensive chances?

I’m not going to die on that hill, but I will use the rationale to bet on Allen Lazard O 2.5 receptions. Lazard is over this in 2/3 games and while his targets have been decreasing, his pass snaps and routes run % have remained elevated. Plus, his undeniable connection with Aaron Rodgers can’t be ignored.

If Wilson is blanketed by Surtain with even a modest degree of regularity, I think Rodgers finds Lazard at least a few times. And rather than play his ladder (which hasn’t gone well for me, not once, but twice), I’ll just take the straight receptions line.

Finding The Right Way To Fade The Broncos: Back to the Broncos’ offense, I’ve made it clear that I don’t like it one bit this week - I’ve just been searching for the right way to express that trade.

Javonte Williams, please take the stage. Williams’ yards per attempt (YPA) has been steadily decreasing since his rookie year in 2021 and that trend has continued so far this year (2.2 average YPA). He also saw his snaps and attempts get cut in half in favor of Tyler Badie last week, who has been speculated to become the Broncos’ new RB1.

On top of that, the game script suggests the Broncos will be playing from behind, so when Williams is on the field, I expect it will be in passing situations more often than not. Realistically, I don’t think the Badie/Williams attempt split will be as pronounced this week (since the Broncos likely won’t be playing with a comfortable lead), but I also don’t think Williams gets the 12+ attempts he likely needs in order to hit 29+ yards.

Jets, please don’t let me down…

Bengals vs. Panthers

0-3 Discount: So far the Bengals have laid a stinker against the Pats, played a tough one and probably should have won against the Chiefs, and got out-gunned in a shootout with the Commanders. Oh, and Joe Burrow might have a wrist issue. OR, do they just always start out slow and now have a chance to get right against an overvalued Panthers team?

Honestly, the move here is probably just to take CIN -4.5, but the low numbers on Brown and Iosivas are too good to pass up.

• Andrei Iosivas (“Yoshi”): After three games of consistent usage in scenarios that I remember being of high importance, I sense a connection between Burrow and Iosivas. He’s averaging 5.3 targets per game with a 63% reception rate and 8.5 yards per reception. In a favorable matchup against a weak Panthers’ defense, I’d take the Over on any line below 4 receptions and 29 yards. He’s also a Romanian-Filipino surfer who was nicknamed “the Romanian Rocket” as a kid. I mean, come on…

• Chase Brown Smash Spot: Brown’s rushing line is set at 32.5 yards. He’s only over that in 1/3 games this year, but his attempts have been steadily increasing and any expectation for the Bengals to be leading (or crushing) the Panthers should give him even more chances. His rushing attempts line is O 7.5 which is more than any game so far this year. If he comes close to that, he should only need ~4 yards per attempt (YPA) to clear this number, and he’s averaging 7.4 YPA this year. The Bengals are a top pick according to the Action Network’s Luck Rankings and their offensive line matchup vs. the Panthers has been highlighted in every “trenches” article I’ve seen. I’d play the ladder if I didn’t ground myself from ladders…

• Erick All That: Recall Bet the Board’s best prop bet last week was Erick All’s Over receiving yards, which cashed seamlessly. I had no idea who this dude was and since he’s a rookie, his statistics sample size was small, so I passed. This week his receiving yards line is set at 12.5, after getting 32 and 22 in the past two weeks. In a favorable matchup against the Panthers, I don’t see any reason for change? Hopefully I’m not a day late and dollar short.

Commanders vs. Cardinals

FAVORITE GAME OF THE DAY

And why wouldn’t it be? Two electrifying offenses going up against susceptible defenses and the highest point Total on the board this week. Everyone wants a shootout here, so how do we pick our spots?

Leaning Cardinals: I feel more comfortable favoring the team with what I consider to be the more trustworthy defense and fading the team with the rookie QB on a short week coming off a huge prime time win. So why not just take ARI -3.5? Honestly, I probably should, but what if Jayden Daniels is for real? These bets have a chance in any scenario other than a slow, run-dominant game script, which really shouldn’t be the case with these teams.

Kyler Redemption: Last week I needed Kyler to run like the wind but instead, he just chucked it down field every chance he got. But that was against the Lions. This is against the Commanders. If he does the same thing here, he will throw for 800 yards.

Bet the Board said Kyler Murray plays significantly better against Zone defense than Man, and the Commanders play Zone, so I’m all in here. Let Kyler cook and I swear if he runs more than he passes this week, straight to jail.

Ertz, Don’t It? This could be viewed as an Ertz revenge game narrative, but really it’s about what I saw from Jayden Daniels last week - I think Ertz has become his safety blanket. Ertz has also seen his receptions gradually increase each week from 3 to 4 to 5. In what I expect could be a similar offensive game plan for the Commanders, I’ll take him for 4+ receptions at plus money.

Maserati Marv: This was mostly about using Fanduel’s 50% boost for anytime TD scorer. At +100, I’m probably late to the party on this one, but I’ll take it with the boost. It’s hard to imagine the Cardinals scoring 3+ TDs without at least 1 of them going to Marv.

Plums Bet: Michael Wilson TD (+240) and 2 TD (+2000). I didn’t do it, but I feel it…  

Bills vs. Ravens (SNF)

Some Spread Huh? The 1-2 Ravens are favored against the 3-0 Bills?!? Clear your schedules, folks because this one is going to be a doozy…

Other than Shakir (below), I don’t have much of a read on this game - if I had to play something, it would revolve around the Ravens collapsing in the second half.

• Bills 2H ML is +102

• Bills 2H Total Points Over is 10.5 (at -105)

I would be very comfortable betting both of those. There are also some fun parlay combinations out there with the Ravens winning the first half but losing the second half. But at risk of getting too cute, I’ll just stick with Shakir.

Shakir: The Ravens have a good defense - from what I’ve gathered this week (and previous weeks), the best way to attack them is over the short middle of the field, most effectively done from the slot. If that’s the case, Khalil Shakir is the perfect weapon. Look at his spray chart so far this year:

If you need short passes over the middle of the field from a slot receiver, you can’t get a much better combination than Josh Allen to Khalil Shakir.

Shakir has also been steadily increasing his targets, receptions, and yards each game this year (i.e., Allen getting more comfortable with him).

Bet the Board’s best prop bet this week was Shakir O 3.5 receptions at -150. By the time I got to it, it was bet down to -188, but I’m incredibly comfortable taking him at 5 receptions instead of 4. And he’s averaging 12 yards per reception this year, so O 48.5 yards should be a piece of cake if he gets all 5.

Perhaps he hits both. Perhaps he hits neither. It’s a bit like playing Black and Even in roulette, but since I’ve grounded myself from playing ladders, this is how I’m attacking it.

Khalil Shakir to the moon.

Other Thoughts

• Dalton Kincaid is another option over the middle of the field and/or from the slot. Hopefully he doesn’t vulture this Shakir game, although there should be enough to go around.

• The Bills have been leaning on James Cook heavily, but the Ravens have one of the best run defenses in the league. I wouldn’t be surprised if they try to force it anyway and/or if they try to use Cook in the pass game, but still, I think there’s enough to go around for Shakir.

• Lamar Jackson tends to play well against 2-high safety zone coverages with minimal blitzing which is exactly what the Bills tend to play. This could lead to success in the middle of the field.

  • Isaiah Likely has the #1 Tight End mismatch according to PFF this week. He’s been quiet since Week 1, but this could be another Likely game…

• Bills’ defense may be susceptible to the run. Derrick Henry has entered the chat…

Honorable Mentions

Jaguars vs. Texans

• The “right” play here is the Jaguars. Most trends you find will point you in the direction of the Jags being undervalued coming off an ugly loss in prime time.

• The most interesting factor here is that apparently C.J. Stroud struggles more against Man defense than Zone, and who plays Man defense at one of the highest clips in the NFL? The Jags. It hurt them significantly against Josh Allen last week, but it could keep them in it this week against a divisional foe.

  • I wanted to bet C.J. Stroud’s U 266.5 passing yards and/or his interception prop (+108) but ran out of units ($$ I was willing to put at risk this week).

Eagles vs. Buccaneers

• No play here. The Eagles are injured and this seems like a Bucs spot, but I’m just not sure how this one plays out. The Total has been coming down and I’ve heard good things about the First Half Under.

• Saquon always seems like a good bet but Vita Vea is back for the Bucs and he’s 350 pounds of athletic freak so I’ll hold off.

Saints vs. Falcons

• Mixed reviews from all my sources. Everyone is freaking out about offensive line injuries on both sides, but nobody is really providing much detail on what it actually means for the game.

• I’m just hoping it’s a close game (for the lookahead teaser).

Vikings vs. Packers

• I’m very excited to watch this game as it’s being lauded as the best coaching matchup of the year, but I have no idea how to bet it. Two football genius coaches playing chess just means more unpredictability to me, so I’ll stay away.

• One thing is for certain: the Vikings will blitz, so I like Jayden Reed out of the slot, but his yards line is close to 50. The Packers have too many weapons for me to bank on +50 from any one specific guy on that offense.

• I really want to bet on Aaron Jones for the revenge narrative but I just don’t think I trust it. Plus, the Vikings’ team total points line is set at 20.5, much lower than I thought it would be, so I’m not willing to throw a dart on an Aaron Jones TD. But I hope he gets in the end zone and I hope he does a Lambo Leap.

  • I’m actually not sure what I should be rooting for from a Bears-to-make-the-playoffs perspective, but Vikings by a million!

Browns vs. Raiders

• I’m inclined to take all receiving Unders for both Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy because I think Maxx Crosby is going to become the stuff of nightmares for Deshaun Watson. If I had to pick a lane, it would be Under their longest receptions (21.5 and 19.5, respectively) because I just don’t think Watson will have enough time for them to make it that far down the field and neither have very good yards after the catch (YAC) metrics this year.

Happy football, everyone!