The theme of my Week 5 Recap (other than losing) was learning. In spite of the losses, I felt like I was learning both myself and my sources of information.

Well it looks like the learning has continued because after posting my Week 5 Recap yesterday (Thursday) afternoon (admittedly a little later than usual), I quickly assembled my Week 6 TNF Preview and upon hitting publish, learned that Beehiiv only allows me to publish one post every 12 hours…what do you want for free, eh? 

So instead, I posted to the web library only (which bypasses your email), and of course, it was my best night of the year so far - up over 7 units, or a 96% return.

Last night single handedly cut my total deficit in half and brought my total return on the year up from -13% to -5%. Obviously I’m striving for a positive number here, but it just goes to show how one really good night can move the needle.

I usually save the performance charts for the full Week recap, but just look how impactful that one game was on five weeks worth of the light green line (on the right-side chart).

If you haven’t read the Week 6 TNF Preview, it’s obviously a little late, but worth a quick glance so the below recap makes sense.

49ers vs. Seahawks

See my Previous Thoughts for reference.

Kittle Time

I’ve previously outlined the splits between Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel in Man vs. Zone defense. In general, Aiyuk=Man and Deebo=Zone, but at the same time, I’m always reluctant to bet on Deebo given his knack for injuries, which honestly seems to be a 49ers-wide issue at this point.

However, beyond Aiyuk and Deebo, George Kittle also has a split in favor of Zone coverage vs. Man, and the Seahawks predominantly play Zone.

Kittle is also battling an injury (ribs) and TNF is always on short rest, so I was a bit worried about him last night as well, but I felt more comfortable with him than Deebo (even though both of ended up checking in and out of the game last night with various injuries. Kittle even went to the locker room in the 4th quarter, but ended up returning).

As far as yardage goes, it was Deebo’s night - 102 yards but only on 3 receptions (on 5 targets). It was Kittle who led the team with 6 targets, yielding 5 receptions for 58 yards, and TWO TDs - which I only bet because I had him to score two last week and he didn’t, so I simply wanted to avoid the scenario where I missed him by one week (which seems to happen to me quite often). I call it a “revenge bet”.

The TD hits were admittedly a bit of luck (they usually are), but the yardage bet was sound, and what I’m most proud of from last night is my restraint from betting Kittle’s ladder. The matchup was great, but with the injury, it didn’t make sense to push it. And of course he landed at 58 yards, right between his line (48.5) and the first rung of ladder that I would have bet (60+).

Me from a few weeks ago would have played the full ladder. Am I showing personal growth?!? 

Kyle Juszcyk

I said it last night - Juszcyk is not a gimmick - he’s used in important games and coming off a divisional loss against another divisional opponent, this was an important game.

Sure enough, Juszcyk had 3 receptions on 4 targets and a 6-yard rush for a TD. However, he only had 10 receiving yards, thanks to -3 for his first catch on a blown up play.

Trust Tree? I thought I was sunk after that, and while I standby the above, had Jordan Mason not gotten injured (below), I don’t know if Juszcyk gets enough action to overcame that first -3 yard catch to cash this over…

Jordan Mason

This one was pretty straightforward - both 85.5 for the game and 18.5 for the Long were pretty high numbers but the mismatch here was just too good to pass up. PFF had the 49ers with a 32% offensive line run advantage, which is second only to Detroit this week, and Mason already has multiple games this year over both numbers.

My primary worry was vultured attempts from rookie, Isaac Guerendo who saw some snaps last week. The 49ers have leaned on Mason heavily this year so he had to be tired, but the more appropriate line of thinking would have been that he was also probably banged up and due for injury.

Sure enough, Mason left the game midway through the 2nd quarter with 65 rushing yards (on pace for 150+) due to a left shoulder injury. He returned to start the 3rd quarter, but only for one play and while he seemed ready to go on the sideline, he never made it back in the game.

Meanwhile, Guerendo made the most of the opportunity and ultimately finished with 99 yards on 10 carries. He wasn’t as efficient as Mason, but it speaks to the mismatch in the trenches…

Wrap Up

In the absence of injury, I have full confidence Mason would have cashed his Over and the alt 100+ line, which means all but the three longest shot bets of the night would have hit (pretty good).

Last night I asked the 49ers for a straightforward game script and to just do what they were supposed to do. They almost surrendered another double digit lead, but ultimately were able to close this one out.

Good job, San Fran, and good luck with all those injuries…not sure I’ll be back here any time soon though…

No excuses, play like a champion.