NFL Week 1 MNF Recap

Okay, I know this looks like a lot. But in my defense, 3 of these bets were placed live after Deebo/Breece cashed in the first half (so kind of playing with house money?). Plus, 2 of the live bets were placed with bonuses that were about the expire. And also it had been a good first week…

First things first, all of these non-live bets were fortunately placed before Christian McCaffrey was announced Out, which was mostly important to Deebo’s TD pricing. Even with McCaffrey, I was happy to take Deebo at +160 (especially with no sweat insurance from DraftKings).

Deebo = Zone, Aiyuk = Man. I’m still getting the hang of the PFF database, but the Jets appeared to play roughly 2x as much zone coverage as man in 2023, which seemed to hold more than true Monday night. Last year, Deebo’s target % in zone coverage was 25%, vs. 13% in man coverage. Brandon Aiyuk was essentially the inverse. To oversimplify, Aiyuk is the man-coverage-beater and Deebo is the zone-coverage-beater.

With all that, Deebo’s line was set at 51.5, which he was over in more than half his games last year, and an even higher percentage after adjusting for health and late-season post-clinch usage.

I don’t typically like to bet on Deebo given the risk of injury (see Receiver) but Week 1 seemed like the safest possible time, so why not let it rip? It didn’t cash by a lot, but it cashed nonetheless (5 rec for 54 yards on 9 targets. ).

BUT, and this is where the injured McCaffrey comes in, he also had 8 rushing attempts - only yielding 23 yards but also a very crucial TD. Not how I drew it up in my head, but I’ll take it - part of the upside of betting on Deebo (dual usage). Thinking about it in terms of probability again, +160 = 38%. If this exact game was played 10 times, do I think Deebo scores in at least 4 of them? Probably, even with McCaffrey in the game, I’d take that.

Jets Offense Variance: I don’t think anybody was totally sure what to expect from Aaron Rodgers’ return to the Jets’ offense. I didn’t watch a ton of their preseason but I heard from “experts” that Hall was looking good. With a mystery offense in Week 1, playing away, the only move for me was Hall. 65 yards seemed reasonable, as did plus money on his TD. But really, I just wanted some action on the Jets’ side of the ball without looking like an absolute moron.

Purdy Can Run: If we learned anything from the postseason last year, it’s that Purdy can and will run in high stakes and/or close games, particularly against an above average pass rush. In his three postseason games last year, he had 14, 48, and 12 rushing yards, respectively. In the regular season, he had 7+ rushing yards against the Steelers, Browns, Vikings, Bengals, Bucs, Eagles, and Seahawks - almost all of which have top tier pass rushes or are a division/conference rival.

Enter the Jets with a top tier pass rush in a primetime MNF matchup and Purdy’s line is at 6.5? And it was actually coming down throughout the afternoon (pre-McCaffrey). The movement was puzzling enough to make me hesitate, but 6.5 felt like it could cash on just 1 scramble. And sure enough, that’s all Purdy had, and that’s all it took. 1 attempt for 11 yards. Cash.

Live TD Lottery Picks: Most readers will understand the feeling of playing with house money and/or feeling like you’re “hot”. Well let’s just say heading into halftime of the MNF game, I had both, as well as a few more expiring bonus bets. So why not throw a few darts?

Mason was less of a dart considering his first half usage. It would be crazy if he didn’t get rewarded with a TD after 28 attempts for 147 yards. Watson was similar to Hall in that I just wanted to have something on the Jets’ side of the ball. Turns out Lazard was the move, which I didn’t expect after his first quarter drop.

The real dart was Juszcyk, and once again it felt like they weren’t watching the games last year. Juszcyk wasn’t targeted that much last year, but 1) he was when the 49ers were dealing with injuries to key players and during high stakes games, and 2) his rec% is outstanding - he only didn’t catch two balls that were thrown to him last season and postseason. Despite overall low usage, he seems to be a safety blanket of sorts for Purdy (or more likely Kyle Shannahan).

At the half, the 9ers are only up 6, CMC is out, Mason already logged a game’s worth of attempts, and Deebo seems to get up slowly after every hit, why not dial up #44?

Sure enough, Purdy hits him on their first drive after the half for 6 yards, and then a few plays later throws a deep ball to who else but #44 streaking down the sideline. The pass was perfect but he stumbled as he caught it and ultimately fell 3 yards short of the end zone. 3 yards away from +1200 boosted to +2400 cashing on a half unit. That would have been sweet.

Should have just taken the second half yards. Oh well, the thrill was worth the price.

What a week.