Week 7 started with a successful betting night with the Broncos (see the TNF Preview). I’m hoping to continue it today with a focus on the Lions/Vikings, Seahawks/Falcons, and Panthers/Commanders - all of which I’m expecting to be high scoring games.

Throw in a little Superbowl rematch and Saquon returning to Metlife drama, and we’ve got ourselves a nice little Sunday.

Looking back on it, I’m heavier on some longer shots than I would have liked, which isn’t the best strategy to achieve my goal of back-to-back weeks in the black, but it sure is more exciting this way.

Happy football, everyone!

Lions vs. Vikings

NFC North Showdown: All signs point to this game being awesome. Both teams have relatively high-powered offenses while Detroit has a leaky defense and Minnesota finally started to show some signs of weakness two weeks ago against the Jets in London.

Play The Hits: Detroit has a solid run defense despite losing Aiden Hutchinson last week, although with Dan Campbell at the wheel, it’s not crazy to think we could see a defensive “rally” in spite of losing Hutchinson. Regardless, Detroit has been weak against the pass this year and JJ is simply the best in the business right now. He has over 100 yards receiving in 6/8 matchups against the Lions with over 150 in three of those. Honestly, I see the biggest risk to the Jefferson bets being injury. Nothing else can stop him today.

Who Is Tim Patrick? Tim Patrick has been increasingly more involved in Detroit’s offense and in a potential shootout and/or Lions-playing-from-behind game script, it would make sense for him to see equal or additional action. Bet the Board’s best player prop was Tim Patrick O 1.5 receptions, which promptly got removed from Fanduel while his yards line steadily increased from 18.5 to 21.5. I saw the writing on the wall and was able to grab 25+ at plus money (and obviously played the ladder).

Calling My Shot: Brock Wright has the same number of red zone targets as Sam LaPorta this year. Let that sink in. Now imagine a high scoring Divisional matchup against an innovative defense - I could see Dan Campbell cooking something up for his #2 [reliable] tight end. Obviously this is a long shot, but it’s guaranteed excitement.

Seahawks vs. Falcons

Squeaky Wheel: This is another game with shootout potential. I expect to see a whole lot of Bijan Robinson and Drake London from the Falcons, and while I’m a little less certain about the Seahawks as a whole, one thing is for certain, D.K. Metcalf will be getting the ball. Remember last week when he grabbed a headset on the sidelines to yell at his offensive coordinator to get him the ball more? Metcalf is probably top 5 in the league on NFL players who I wouldn’t want to be mad at me. That is one scary dood.

Eagles vs. Giants

Saquon’s Return: These teams do NOT like each other, and the Saquon drama goes without saying…but the real reason behind this bet is that the Eagles should be able to generate some push in the run game against a banged up Giants team.

Saquon is over this number in all but his last game, and excluding that, he’s averaging 6.7 yards per carry this year. His rushing attempts line today is set at 17.5, which implies 120 rushing yards, so I’m planning on taking the Over of 78.5 straight to the bank.

Panthers vs. Commanders

Riding The Panthers’ Train: Call me crazy, but I think the Panthers will have success today?!? PFF has them with the highest offensive line advantage for passing and #3 for running. Meanwhile, Washington is #3 and #8, respectively. To me, that means points, points, points.

Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler are self-explanatory, Chuba Hubbard has been automatic, but I just don’t know how confident I can be in the Panthers. All matchup signs point to success and scoring but 1) it’s the Panthers, 2) it’s Andy Dalton, 3) Washington’s defense seems to be improving, 4) Diontae Johnson is banged up, and 5) did I mention it’s the Panthers?

This is a true test on my conviction and trust in the offensive line advantages. All aboard the Red Rocket.

Chiefs vs. 49ers

Superbowl Rematch!!!

Quick Thoughts: This game will obviously be exciting, but are both teams currently worse than they were last year? Chiefs as an underdog should be an automatic bet but once again I’m taking refuge with player props.

Both teams should be able to run - my biggest concern here is injury, particularly for Jordan Mason who banged up his shoulder last week on TNF.

Round Robins, Teasers, Parlays, OH MY!

Okay, I may have gotten a little carried away here, but this was an attempt to capture all of my theories for the week with some exciting upside (using PFF data).

Teams with the biggest matchup advantages (suggests scoring):

• Detroit

• Carolina

• Washington

• Baltimore

• Denver (✅)

• Atlanta

Teams with the biggest matchup advantage deltas (suggests winning/covering):

• Baltimore

• Jacksonville

• Cleveland

• Denver (✅)

• Detroit

• Atlanta

So far, using these matchup advantages as a foundation seems to be working. I’m avoiding Baltimore because this seems like a letdown spot for them and the Bucs are kind of scary right now. Jacksonville should be able to pass but I don’t trust Trevor Lawrence yet and I was behind on the newsletter and wouldn’t have it out in time for the 9:30am ET start. That leaves, Detroit, Carolina, Washington, and Atlanta which uncoincidentally are the games where I have the heaviest action.

And once again, I probably should have just taken those teams to cover or win individually, but the player props and upside of round robins and parlays is just too exciting.

No excuses, play like a champion.