I have one goal for Week 7: finish in the black for the second consecutive week for the first time this year.

My biggest inhibitor of that goal? Horrible prime time games like this one, Pats/Jags in London, Jets/Steelers on SNF, and Chargers/Cardinals on MNF. In fairness, the Ravens/Bucs are also on MNF but seriously, that’s 4/5 for the week being borderline un-betable.

But as I’ve said before, even though this is a game that I’d probably pass on if it was in the Sunday mix, it’s in prime time and part of the allure of betting is to enhance the viewing experience - so that’s what we’re doing tonight (and probably for the rest of them too).

And hopefully this is the only time I say this, but let’s go Bo Nix as a road favorite. Sheesh. 

Broncos vs. Saints

Trusting a rookie QB on the road in a short week is not normally my preference, but the Saints are so hurt that they’re practically playing with their practice squad. And the guys that are on the field are [mostly] playing their 3rd game in 11 days.

If we rewind a few weeks, the Saints would absolutely be favorites here, but sometimes teams are just too hurt and tired to get up for a game. That’s what I’m banking on tonight, but at the same time, I couldn’t will myself to take Broncos -2.5 because I just can’t trust Bo (and it’s worth noting I’m super late on the price - the Saints were actually favored earlier in the week, so I’ve totally missed the boat - kudos to the casual bettor).

Javonte Williams

Ever since I unsuccessfully bet his Under in Week 4 (something I rarely do), Williams has looked amazing. He was bottled up last week against Harbaugh’s Chargers, but that’s not too much of a shocker. Swap in a banged up and tired Saints team who just got rolled on the ground by the Bucs and I think Williams has a nice bounce back here.

In his good games, he’s averaging 4.5-5.0 yards per carry and Fanduel has his attempts line set at 12 - simple math there gets to 48+. I’d play his alt lines up to 60+ but decided to just go heavy on his regular line instead.

I’m also heavy on his longest rush O 12.5 yards which is mostly a play on the Saints being tired and missing tackles, a prevalent theme a few short days ago against the Bucs. Honestly, 13 yards isn’t even that long and Williams is over that mark in the last three games. Now that I think about it, this is probably my favorite bet tonight.

Scoring

This is tough because the game as a really low O/U (37.5) but the PFF matchups that I lived by last week suggest the Broncos should have a good deal of success tonight. In fact, if I went by the same criteria as last week, they’d be in my “3 Over 30” club tonight (scoring over 30 points).

Nobody out there seems to agree so I’m not doing it. Hopefully I can come back to this and say I should have stuck to my guns. Instead, I wanted to play a couple TD scorers, and since I’m more confident in the Broncos, I went there.

Betting TD scorers in a low Total game is not typically something I do, but this is where the entertainment value comes in. I chose Courtland Sutton because he is a red zone target machine (9 vs. next highest on the team of 2). He only has 3 receptions on those 9 targets (thank you Bo Nix), but if I believe the Broncos can put up some points tonight, I have to think Sutton is involved in the scoring.

I didn’t chose Javonte Williams because 1) I have enough action on him and 2) he strangely hasn’t seen the end zone yet this year. I would certainly pick tonight to be the end of that drought, but see #1 above.

I chose the Broncos defense because I thought the odds were a little long considering they are playing a rookie QB making his second start in a discombobulated offense and TNF can get weird at times. Plus, it’s pretty fun to root for.

I didn’t take Bo Nix although it was calling my name…

Lastly, kicker props (I know, I know)…Will Lutz is somewhat of a hedge against my Broncos TD bets. I do think they’ll be able to move the ball tonight, but I’m not fully confident in red zone conversion…that’s where Lutz comes in. Two field goals and one PAT should do the trick.

Hopefully this isn’t a 10-6 game.

Carl Granderson

The millennial baseball fan in me keeps subconsciously typing Curtis Granderson instead of Carl Granderson.

Honestly, I don’t know much about the specifics of the Broncos’ pass rush, but I don’t mind taking their sacks/pressure leader at plus money against a rookie QB with a game script in which he’s expected to be trailing.

Last time I did this was with Chris Jones, and it totally didn’t work. Second time’s a charm?

No excuses, play like a champion.