If you’re new here, a very warm welcome, feel free to check out Week 7 and Week 6 to get a feel for things. Just whatever you do, definitely don’t look at Week 5 - nothing to see there.

Week 8 started on a so-so note (see the TNF Preview). I was correctly on the Rams, but the surprise activation of Puka Nacua literally minutes after placing all of my Cooper Kupp prop bets was less than ideal.

The rest of the Week 8 slate (in my opinion) presents a more difficult opportunity set when it comes to props (lower point totals), but a potentially easier one when it comes to sides and totals.

My humble analysis likes the Jets, Chargers, Lions, Colts, Broncos, and Dolphins, but there’s no way I’m betting on Aaron Rodgers by 7 points, the Chargers looked me in my eyes and stabbed me in my heart last week, and the Lions have what I think is the biggest spread of the year so far.

So that leaves the Colts with Anthony Richardson, the Broncos with a rookie QB, and the Dolphins who are returning Tua after not playing for 6 weeks.

What could possibly go wrong?!?

Teasers, Round Robins, Parlays

Teaser Says It All - Colts, Dolphins, Broncos, Eagles/Bengals Under

The first teaser is a combination of my highest conviction bets this week. That’s right, I’m essentially going with Anthony Richardson and the Colts who will undoubtedly have a crippling turnover to blow this whole thing, Tua returning to football for the first time in 6 weeks, and the Under on two [seemingly] high powered offenses in Philly and Cincy.

Full rationale in the individual game sections below. 

Chalk TD Parlay

I actually hit one of these last week so what’s the harm in trying again? The point totals across the league are lower this week so theoretically this should be more difficult, and hitting two in a row would be quite the anomaly, but I feel good about all of these guys.

They all have a distinct offensive line matchup advantage which suggests [to me] a higher rate of scoring. Touchdowns are highly variable so that’s what I’m looking for here - teams that I think have the potential to score 3-4+ touchdowns where the possible “flukiness” (i.e., a random backup TE catching the only TD of the game) doesn’t ruin the chances of the most likely guy to score. Does that make sense?

I then did the same thing for 2 TDs with my favorite three scorers this week (Javonte Williams, Bijan Robinson, and De’Von Achane) - more below in the individual game sections.

Happy National Tight End Day!

If this was my full-time gig, I’d go back and collect some stats around Tight Ends scoring TDs on National Tight End Day - but it’s not, so I didn’t. But I’d like to think there’s some significance here and it would feel silly not to try to get in on the action.

I heard on a podcast this week that TEs are the new divas of the NFL, and honestly, I don’t disagree. They all band together to advocate for their own performance, they have their own summer camp every year, and now they have a national day to celebrate themselves? This just feels like something that they’d actually care about.

Cardinals vs. Dolphins

Tua’s Back…And So Is Call Of Duty

Call of Duty Black Ops 6 came out a few days ago… is this not the week we’ve all been waiting for to fade Kyler Murray and the Cardinals?!?

Hardy-har-har-har… I know he’s a professional and supposedly fixed his video game addiction……but surely he must be curious about the new game, right?

But legitimately, the Cardinals haven’t won back-to-back games since December 2021. That’s more than just a little coincidence, right? They’re a hot-and-cold team and they’re coming off a win against the Chargers on MNF. This is technically a short week, they’re traveling to the East Coast, and they’re playing in that crucial 1pm time slot where the sun beats down on the away team’s bench in Miami.

But the Cardinals play in Arizona, surely they must be used to the heat and elements? Wrong, they’re a dome team. Next question.

Even though I’d probably still fade the Cardinals if Tua wasn’t back, he is. And it might be an uncomfortable topic of conversation but digging deep into the internet, it seems like he’s been ready to play for some time now, and that the move to IR and extended sitting time was more about optics than anything else.

No opinions on the matter here, but it’s clear Miami’s offense is a binary system. With Tua (and especially at home and early in the season), it’s explosive, and without Tua, it’s anemic.

Give me Miami and all of their players to cash Overs and score TDs (Achane was the safest play to me).

Eagles vs. Bengals

Something’s Just Not Right Here

Seemingly the motto for both teams so far this year. For me, this is all about what I gather from the PFF offensive line matchup advantages and disadvantages, which again, has been quite the accurate indicator the past few weeks.

There are three game this weekend that have strong O-line net disadvantages this week: Giants/Steelers, Ravens/Browns, and Eagles/Bengals. The Giants/Steelers line is already at 36.5 (which might actually still be a play - stay tuned tomorrow), the Ravens/Browns are at 44.5 but despite the matchup indicators, the Ravens are playing well enough to keep me off this one, and then there’s the Eagles/Bengals at 47.5.

What Even Is A Key Number?

47 is known as a “key number” in the industry although I swear every number is a key number nowadays so I don’t really get the point. Regardless, hitting that Over likely requires 4-5+ TDs in this game where both teams have trench disadvantages when it comes to passing and only slight advantages when it comes to running.

Chase Brown and Saquon Barkley should have good games. In fact, I’m hoping for it. Give me a few methodical 6-8 minute drives and I think this hits with ease. Even with an inevitable explosive from Ja’Marr Chase and A.J. Brown, 48 gives a fair amount of cushion.

I think Cincinnati ultimately gets it done, but that it will be close and that both fan bases will walk away with a general sense of uneasiness around their offenses when going up against respectable opponents.

I get the sense this will be like watching a fight with a whole bunch of weird little slapping.

Falcons vs. Bucs

This Game Matters

Is it dramatic to say this game determines who wins the NFC South? These teams just played one another 3 weeks ago in which the Falcons won an overtime thriller 36-30. They’re currently tied atop the Division - a Bucs win would neutralize the head-to-head matchup, while a Falcons win would obviously solidify it.

The Falcons are still commonly thought to be fraudulent (a sentiment I don’t necessarily share), while the Bucs just lost 2/3 of its offensive nucleus in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. With the trade deadline approaching, the Bucs seem to be confident in their remaining receiver crew, and although I like Baker, I’m just not sure I see a whole lot of success in the next few weeks against the Falcons, Chiefs, and 49ers. Mike Evans has proven to be different while Chris Godwin was leading the league in YAC - that’s not really something that can be replaced by organic roster depth.

Leaning On Bijan

We’ll see. One thing is for sure: this game matters, a lot. And when the game matters, put the ball in the hands of your super stars. Bijan Robinson has been absolutely electric - give him the ball and watch him spin.

Colts vs. Texans

Wishing Upon A Flacco

I never thought I’d be saying this in 2024, but I wish Joe Flacco was playing in this game…

Here’s the thing, all signs point to a sneaky tough matchup for the Texans here. They have a massive disadvantage in the trenches (according to PFF) and have been consistently inconsistent without Nico Collins in the lineup.

Problem is, I can’t trust Anthony Richardson any further than I can throw him (which is already 0). I just know there will be at least one crippling interception or fumble that will jeopardize every single bet I have for this game.

I don’t think I’m going out on much of a limb by saying I think the Colts are better with Flacco and certainly think they’d be better equipped to win this game with him under center.

My saving grace is that Richardson will run more, which hopefully translates to longer, more sustainable drives that keep the ball out of CJ Stroud’s hands, preventing him from finding any sort of rhythm in the Texans’ offense.

The same logic applies to Jonathan Taylor returning for the Colts. Run run run and stop the run run run. Bleed the clock and grab a W.

This might just have to be a close my eyes and check the score later kind of game…

Panthers vs. Broncos

Introspection: Do I Feel Bad Picking On The Panthers?

NO! I bet on them to have a great week last week and they only put up 7 points against the Commanders!

After that, it was straight to jail. Do not pass go, do not collect $200. There are no get out of jail free cards. The Panthers may as well be in Azkaban as far as I’m concerned.

Enter the Denver Broncos coming off a mini-bye and who I actually think may be a bit underrated (after incorrectly fading theme earlier in the season).

Sure, Bo Nix Does Some Weird Stuff Sometimes But He’s A Rookie

CJ Stroud (last year) and Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams have been setting extremely unrealistic examples for rookies recently - they’re supposed to do weird things and be wildly inconsistent!

The kid looks good (at times) and against the Panthers, he should have plenty of chances. I wanted to take almost every Bronco Over and TD prop in this game, but had to draw the line. Courtland Sutton seems like a sure thing, and Lucas Krull would be a very fun way to get weird with it.

But this is all about Javonte Williams who continues to look like his old self ever since I bet his Under in Week 4. He’s averaging 5.3 yards per carry in the Broncos’ last three wins and his attempts line is set at 13.5 - which implies a base of 74 yards, and in an even larger-than-expected leading game script, those attempts likely climb even higher.

I’m limiting myself to this bet slip only because of Nix’s rookie-ness and because the spread is so wide, I’d be just slightly worried about a backdoor cover.

No excuses, play like a champion.