Last week it was Brock Purdy’s legs, and this week it was the collective efforts of Cade Otton and Travis Kelce that catapulted me from the dark depths of Sunday losses into the sunny fields of profitability for the week.

A few things come to mind:

• With now four consecutive hits on my weekly teaser, I think it’s fair to say that I’m relatively on top of it for my highest conviction games. Recall, this was my primary goal during the dark ages of Weeks 2-5 where I was spreading myself too thin across too many games.

  • Well, if that’s the case, why don’t I just stop there, and/or just stick to teasers? Particularly considering that in the last four winning weeks, there are numerous examples where I’m on the right side, but the player props I choose don’t hit - either due to injury or simply game script (see Falcons and Rams below).

  • Fair point; however, there are also many examples of the player props being successful, and with their relatively higher upside, they have catapulted me back into the black (see Kittle TD/2TD, Kmet TD/2TD, Purdy rushing ladder, etc. - all of which were highly intentional and based on matchup).

    • There’s almost certainly some statistical argument out there that refutes that last point, but I really do think the NFL’s player props provide more attainable “juicy” odds than some other sports.

    • For example, compare star players in good matchups across the other major sports - in the NFL, I think it’s not only easier to identify that matchup advantage, but given the correlation between the (low) number and (high) importance of games in the season, that it’s also more likely for that star player to capitalize on that particular matchup.

      • For similar odds, I’m much more confident in precisely nailing Travis Kelce 8+ receptions, than I’d be for Aaron Judge to hit a HR in a random game in June or Ja Morant to score 40+ points in a random game in January.

  • In a way, it’s almost an argument around market timing, and with the shorter season, I’ll attempt to “time” the NFL over any other league any day.

• So, where does that leave me? Like most things, I think it’s somewhere in the middle. Perhaps Week 10 calls for more teasers, sides, and totals and for fewer player props, but not an elimination of player props altogether. In that case, we’re back to realizing conviction and improving on intra-week discipline.

With all that out of the way, here’s the Week 9 summary:

Teasers

See my Previous Thoughts for reference.

Perhaps I should just stick to teasers? This is four weeks in a row now…

See rant above.

Texans vs. Jets (TNF)

See my Previous Thoughts for reference.

J-E-T-$ JET$ JET$ JET$

Being on the Jets was definitely the right call. They didn’t always look great but the writing was on the wall for a banged up Texans team in a bad spot (hence the spread in favor of the Jets. This was simply going with the grain.

Garrett Wilson Catch Of The Year

I mean come on… I said it in the TNF Preview - Garrett Wilson is really really good. I understand force-feeding Davante Adams but please not at the expense of Wilson. He’s just too good.

Big Ol’ Goose Egg For Metchie

I put this one on Stroud. He missed an open Metchie twice - once for an easy 25+ reception and again for a wide open TD.

The bet slip looks bad, but the logic was there - Metchie ran 31 routes on 33 passing snaps which is nearly triple any of his previous games. He should have gotten there and I’m bitter.

But adding on to my mini rant at the beginning of this post, I think I’ve realized my lane is NOT predicting breakout games from otherwise stat-less players. From now on, I’m sticking to the studs.

Still Fixin’ For Some Mixon

And still hate that ^ but I can’t think of anything else.

Mixon had 106 yards on 24 attempts, which was his 4th consecutive game above 100 rushing yards and 5th this year (out of 6 games played).

For what it’s worth, he’s also scored a TD in all of those games above 100 yards as well. Mixon 100+ rushing yards is crossing into automatic territory…

Saints vs. Panthers

See my Previous Thoughts for reference.

The Saints Go Marching…Right Off A Cliff

The Saints really let me down here. They looked absolutely horrible. Now, it’s worth saying that Olave leaving the game early with an injury did not help the game plan, and I do think had he stayed, the Saints would have kept control of this game. But he didn’t, and they didn’t.

Kamara The Only Bright Spot

With virtually no downfield threats remaining, this game fell on the shoulders of Alvin Kamara, and he was nearly able to carry everyone.

29 carries for 155 yards and 6 receptions on 9 targets for another 60 yards. Next question.

Almost A Taysom Hill Game

I feel like there’s always at least one per season, and I really thought there was a good chance it was here. Like other teams, when the QB, RB, and WR1 are all healthy against a struggling defense, relatively good things should happen. When the fourth dimension of the Saints’ offense (Taysom Hill) is factored in, all facets are boosted and with Carr being fresh off the injury and the Panthers previously showing weakness against the run, the spot was there.

But when Olave was injured, the whole thing kind of fell apart. Hill did get a TD but the Saints struggled in the red zone and he only ended up with 5 total carries.

Bye Bye Dennis Allen

In not so shocking news, the Saints announced the firing of head coach, Dennis Allen on Monday. “Saints assistant head coach and special teams coordinator, Darren Rizzi will take over as the team's interim coach.”

Looks like the Panthers were the ones to get their mojo back 😒

Falcons vs. Cowboys

See my Previous Thoughts for reference.

London Bridges Falling Down…And Leaving The Game With A Hip Pointer

Drake London’s hip pointer injury on his first quarter TD reception was just a brutal beat. He looked like he was on pace for 1,000 yards and 8 TDs in this game. Barring injury, I’m very confident he would have hit his Over and alt line, and that the Falcons would have cashed their point total Overs.

Darnell Mooney did step up in Drake London’s absence, but I will humbly point out he was tracking well before London’s injury. Although I don’t think he gets that close to 100 with London on the field. At least not without more fight from the Cowboys (still frauds and now so injured).

Speaking Of Bad Beat

Not cashing the O 27.5 team total points on a late game MISSED PAT is about as frustrating as it gets. There was enough time left in the game for the Falcons to score again, but I knew as soon as it happened I was sunk. Should have just stayed with ATL -3.5.

Bijan Robinson Main Character Energy

Despite the Mooney hit and the promising-until-injury Drake London bets, this game was all about Bijan Robinson - 19 carries for 86 yards and 7 receptions on 7 targets for another 59 receiving yards (although no TDs). The Falcons ran 56 offensive plays - that means Bijan was the main character for 46% of them. He accumulated 145 total yards while sharing carries with Allgeier in a game that went Under its total. That’s production.

Mental note, bet Bijan when the Falcons are playing in Divisional and/or high leverage games because they will simply push the Bijan button every time. How could they not?

Broncos vs. Ravens

See my Previous Thoughts for reference.

This game didn’t quite go how I expected. I was wrong about the Broncos starting slow - they were actually moving the ball decently well in the beginning of the game.

However I was right about the Ravens starting strong, so strong that they still covered 6.5 points even though they allowed 10. In hindsight, this spread was LARGE for the first half, but it ended up working out.

I was also wrong about the Ravens letting up in the second half and the Broncos being able to come back. To be honest, I was close to live betting the Broncos to cover at halftime. I’m glad I didn’t do that…

Bears vs. Cardinals

See my Previous Thoughts for reference.

I just can’t do this one. So bad. Fire everyone. Sell the team. I don’t care anymore.

Rams vs. Seahawks

See my Previous Thoughts for reference.

Rollercoaster Rams

This game went back and forth so many times, I felt like I ran a 5k by the time it was over. Kyren Williams was inefficient, and Puka Nacua getting tossed for the lightest helmet punch I’ve ever seen completely tanked the Rams’ game plan early on.

Side Bar: I still can’t comprehend the whole punching a guy wearing a helmet thing, but the players keep doing it. I don’t think I’ll ever understand it, but also Puka’s was so weak that I may or may not have lost a little respect for him as a man, but also in no world should he have been ejected for that. Dumb from all angles.

OT Rules Let Me Down Again

Firstly, while we’re on the topic of dumb, the NFL OT rules are peak stupid. I feel like this is the first time I’ve ever seen the team who loses the coin toss actually win the game.

But I’m dumb because after a day of intently watching 5 and then 4 football games simultaneously, I didn’t think about how a Rams TD in OT would immediately end the game with no PAT. In other words, as soon as they went to OT, my Rams -6.5 ticket was smoked, and it didn’t click until after I was done celebrating the Rams’ win.

Bucs vs. Chiefs

See my Previous Thoughts for reference.

When You’re Right, You’re Right

Not much more to it than that. See my Previous Thoughts…

Surprise OT!

I’ve got to be honest, I watched the second half in bed and may or may not have dozed off in the fourth quarter. This was AFTER most of my bets either hit, or were comfortably in the money - including two LIVE Chiefs ML bets that were placed when the Bucs took the lead in the first half. The Chiefs were very briefly priced at plus money, which I will always take with Mahomes under center, particularly with a whole half of football left to play.

Anyway, the Chiefs promptly regained the lead in the second half, I dozed off at some point in the fourth quarter, and then awoke to find the game in OT with Mahomes pushing the ball down the field!

A quick scroll on the ESPN play-by-play and I learn that Baker led a game-tying TD drive late in the fourth quarter?!? Good for you dude! But Mahomes has the ball in OT soooo, you might want to get comfortable on that sideline.

Sure enough…

Super Touchdown Fun Time!

See my Previous Thoughts for reference.

How about Super Touchdown NOT Fun Time? None of these guys got two. Drake London would have had a chance, and Taysom Hill should have but the Saints are dumb.

These bets are still fun to root for, though, and you never know when you’re going to catch lightning.

No excuses, play like a champion.