As we approach the halfway point of the regular season, I can’t help but ask myself, how did we get here so fast?

And how do we have ANOTHER Jets prime time game?

And while we’re asking questions, at 2-6, how are they favored against the 6-2 Texans?

Fair warning, conviction levels on this game are medium-to-low as it’s probably just an Under game, but there’s no fun in that, so I’m trying to pick some spots.

Let’s get weird.

Texans vs. Jets

J-E-T-S JETS JETS JETS

I’m on record calling the Jets a dumpster fire and the Texans frauds, so I actually don’t like either of these teams right now (hence the bets for fun).

But something is fishy with this line… The 2-6 Jets with presumably one of the most toxic locker rooms in the league are favored against the 6-2 Texans. And the line movement throughout the week has actually gone in the Jets’ favor…what’s going on here?

Well, either the books hung a bad number, or they know something about this matchup. I’m choosing to believe the ladder. The Texans have been lost without Nico Collins and now Stefon Diggs is out for the season. They’re also traveling on a short week after a bruiser of the game against the Colts (in which they didn’t look good).

Remember the trend of fading whichever team just played the Lions because they’re so physical? Pretty sure it’s 5-0, and I’m using the same logic here. I hate it, but if it’s right, I think the Jets win by more than 3, so instead of going 1u on the default spread, I’m going with a half unit on an alt spread for the same payout.

Fixin’ For Some Mixon

^Not sure I love that, but it’s getting late.

The Texans actually have a offensive line rushing disadvantage here, but Mixon has been so hot lately, that I’m just riding the wave here. He’s over 100 yards in 4/5 games this year, including the past 3.

And contrary to historical bias, the Jets aren’t that good against the run - they’ve given up 147 to Jordan Mason, 102 to Najee Harris, 97 to Ray Davis, 77 to Javonte Williams, and 71 to Rhamondre Stevenson.

With a dwindling number of playmakers on the Texans’ offense, they may just feed Mixon 25+ times and inch his way at this Over. We’ll see (going against my typical logic here).

John Metchie III… Sounds Like An Entitled Folk Singer

I don’t know what it is about the name, but it just gives me acoustic guitar with a trust fund.

Full disclaimer: I don’t know a lot about Metchie. I’m not a huge CFB guy (Alabama alum) and he hasn’t played a ton this year, but he did have 19 receptions for 202 yards last year, and he could very well be stepping into Stefon Diggs’ shoes (which have plenty of room).

The first line I saw was 18.5 and it bumped up to 19.5 by the time I bet it (which is a good indication). This is unchartered territory and purely speculation, but it could also be the ultimate buy-low spot. First mover advantage?

Cade Stove Top

Similar to Metchie, those Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs targets have to go somewhere. Cade’s receiving prop wasn’t available all week (at least where I was shopping) but it popped up right before I was about to hit publish on the newsletter.

This is another speculative play but he had 2 receptions on 3 targets last week (without Diggs). 8.5 yards feels really really low. It’s likely that all we need is one catch here…

Garrett Wilson Is Really Good

A total in the 50s is insulting (in my opinion). Sure, Davante Adams is there now, but 1) shouldn’t that just detract from the attention that opposing defenses can pay to Wilson?, and 2) it didn’t seem to matter last week as Wilson caught 5 passes on 8 targets for 113 yards.

Yes, the Texans are different from the Patriots, but we’re talking half of that. Even if Stingley (Texans’ stud cornerback) shadows Wilson instead of Adams, I’ll still roll the dice on Wilson here, and if he shadows Adams, even better.

Touchdown Super Fun Time!

Here are four longshot TD plays that are 1) fun to root for, and 2) still realistic enough to happen. If just one of them hits, all money at risk is returned, and if multiple or one of the longer shots wins, then there’s actual profit. Worth the entertainment for me.

In reality, chalk likely rules here (Breece Hall, Joe Mixon, maybe even Wilson/Adams), but in games where all eyes are on the running backs, I like to get involved in the TE and backup TE game.

• Tyler Conklin - has emerged as a trusted target for Rodgers. 17% implied probability feels low to me.

• Jeremy Ruckert (speaking of entitled folk singer names). Broke out with 3 receptions on 3 targets last week (including a red zone target). Longshot dart.

• Cade Stover and John Metchie III - rationale above - filling Stefon Diggs’ shoes.

Why Not Breece Hall?

This was tough. The biggest trench matchup in this game is Jets rushing, which suggests Breece Hall. I just couldn’t get there.

His line was 65.5 at the time of research which he’s only Over a couple times this year. He’s also only over his weekly rushing prop a couple times this year (i.e., not reliable and/or overrated, although a lot of that could be a factor of losing game scripts).

It’s no secret the Texans don’t defend the run all that well - Aaron Jones went for 102, Tank Bigsby for 90 (with 50 more from Etienne), Jonathan Taylor for 105, James Cook for 82, and Josh Jacobs for 76.

But then there’s Hall’s split with Braelon Allen. Snap/Attempt share suggests Hall carried the load in Weeks 6/7 but surrendered a major portion to Allen last week (in a statistical win vs. the Patriots).

Fanduel’s attempts lines call for a similar split tonight as Weeks 6/7 (good for Hall), but I just don’t think I can trust it. At these attempts/yards lines, Hall would have to average over 4 yards per carry, which is definitely feasible, but his game log looks binary to me.

In other words, I think he’ll either have a great game or bad game, and I don’t have enough of a read to put my money on it.

There’s also an equally likely chance that I’m simply overthinking the most obvious bet on the board.

No excuses, play like a champion.