Heading into the week, I was high on the Rams (which went pretty well), Broncos (which was correct but somehow I still struck out), Dolphins (close, but they couldn’t hold on), and the Colts (even though I knew there would be an Anthony Richardson impact, but I never imagined the extent).

But despite the weird Broncos misses, the narrow Dolphins loss, and the horrendous performance from Anthony Richardson, I was still able to hit another teaser and was inches away from another TD round robin full hit.

But it was actually Brock Purdy’s legs that saved me (full recap below).

On a personal note, nothing was more demoralizing than watching my Bears lose on a hail mary, and then the post-mortem reveal of Tyrique Stevenson taunting the crowd while the play was happening, only to be the the player who tipped the ball up and back into Noah Brown’s arms for the Commanders victory. No links here; I can’t bring myself to watch it any more than I’ve already had to.

#emBEARassing

Teasers, Round Robins, Parlays

See my Previous Thoughts for reference

Glaring Miss On National Tight End Day

The individual sections below cover most of the bets above, but how on earth did I manage to miss the National Tight End Day Parlay?!?

TEs scored 17 touchdowns in Week 8 and somehow only two of the six I chose were included…

They math is kind of fuzzy because teams have multiple TEs and someone probably caught two, but I’m pretty sure randomly selecting a group of TEs would statistically have a better shot at winning than my parlay.

It’s like taking an A-B-C-D multiple choice test and scoring less than 25%…

Vikings vs. Rams

See my Previous Thoughts for reference

Early Bird Gets The Worm, But The Worm Is Poison!

I had a personal goal with this game and it had nothing to do with my results. I simply wanted to publish the TNF newsletter earlier than I have been to 1) give people more time to read it, and 2) give myself more time to figure out this whole Twitter (x) and Reddit thing (feel free to follow - not my strong suit but likely necessary if I want this thing to grow).

Well, in order to get the newsletter out earlier, I needed to place my bets earlier. Problem is, the Rams had some pretty important game-time-decisions in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Regardless, I knew I would be on the Rams because they had a large trench warfare advantage, but I clearly love player props, so I couldn’t just stop at Rams ML.

After extensive internet research, I concluded Cooper Kupp would be playing with either no restrictions or a modest snap count. He was even healthy enough to play in Week 7 but the Rams apparently favored him playing in this game against the Vikings rather than both games back-to-back on short rest.

Puka Nacua was less clear, but it seemed like he was unlikely to be activated, and even if he was, his role would be extremely limited - which, to me, in a favorable matchup, meant go all-in on Cooper Kupp.

Internet=Wrong

So I did. And literally 3 minutes after doing so, the entire internet reported Puca Nakua was activated and would be starting.

Not good.

Although, his usage was still in question and the internet generally believed he wouldn’t play very much.

Internet=Wrong Again

As it turns out, Puka was targeted on the first two plays of the game and he looked to be in midseason form.

He proceeded to lead the team in targets (9), receptions (7), and yards (106).

Kupp Playing Second Fiddle

Meanwhile, Cooper Kupp finished with 5 receptions for 51 yards.

Correctly On The Rams, But The Poison Worm Still Tastes Bitter

It’s hard enough (these days) to correctly pick an underdog ML winner, so it feels good to have been on the Rams - particularly when they looked to be the superior team for the majority of the game.

But I just can’t get the timing of the Nacua news out of my head. Had I not placed my bets before he was activated, I would NOT have went heavy on Kupp’s receptions props, but then again, it’s impossible to know for sure, and that’s the reality of being a casual bettor.

Cardinals vs. Dolphins

See my Previous Thoughts for reference

Kyler Murray Call of Duty Jokes Backfire Right In My Face

Tua was back, but like, not all the way. Don’t get me wrong, this offense was completely different than the past 5 weeks without Tua, and they did score 27 points (in large part due to Achane’s domination), but I wouldn’t necessarily say they were humming as a unit.

Meanwhile, Kyler Murray and the Cardinals offense kind of was. I mentioned in the Preview that the Cardinals hadn’t won back-to-back games since December 2021 but they promptly broke that streak with my money on the line.

Marvin Harrison Jr. AND Trey McBride finished with over 100 receiving yards which helped put Kyler north of 300 passing yards on the day. Clearly, he wasn’t melting his brain with CoD leading up to the game…

…but perhaps after such a positive performance he gets rewarded with a little screen time this week? And then he gets totally re-addicted and lays an absolute egg in Week 9 against the Bears?

Wait, I don’t want to talk about the Bears…

Eagles vs. Bengals

See my Previous Thoughts for reference

When You’re Wrong, You’re Wrong

And I was just flat out wrong here. I was certainly closer to being right about the Bengals but the Eagles actually showed up.

Jalen Hurts was 16-20 for 236 yards with 1 TD and 0 INT and 10 carries for 27 yards and 3 (!) more rushing TDs. Saquon had over 100 yards on the ground and both DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown had over 80 receiving yards.

Meanwhile Joe Burrow was 26-37 for 234 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT but Chase Brown was held to 32 yards on 12 carries and Ja’Marr Chase was held to 54 yards on 9 receptions.

All that to say…is Tee Higgins the key to the Bengals’ offense? Or is their defense just still pretty bad? Or perhaps both...

Fortunately, I was lucky enough to not be SO wrong that my teaser didn’t hit, although it was only 0.5 point away…

Overall, not a good call.

Falcons vs. Bucs

See my Previous Thoughts for reference

Bijan Pain

The sentiment behind this bet was similar to De’Von Achane with the Dolphins - you have an inherent advantage at the line, so just get the ball in your playmakers’ hands and let him do the rest.

The difference is that for Achane, I took his rushing AND receiving yards (which hit). Had I done the same with Bijan, this would have hit as well. But instead, I just went rushing and fell painfully close to the line.

I feel like I should have known better than to solely rely on rushing in the case of a shootout, which kind of happened. The score and box scores suggest it, but watching it live didn’t quite feel like it.

Another Full House For Baker

Baker threw for over 300 yards again but had another TD/INT full house (3/2). It was clear Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were missed in critical third down and red zone situations. Meanwhile Kirk Cousins was nearly perfect, going 23-29 for 276 yards with 4 TD and 0 INT - that’s a 145.9 QBR…not too shabby, Kirk - I bet he wishes he could play the Bucs every week.

Colts vs. Texans

See my Previous Thoughts for reference

Anthony Richardson Is _________________

I don’t even know where to start. 10 completions on 32 attempts for 175 yards (a third of which came on one pass) with 1 TD and 1 back-breaking INT (pick-6), a lost fumble, and 5 sacks - all in a QBR of 48.3 which was DEAD LAST for Week 8.

And on top of all that, he took himself out of the game in a crucial 3rd down with the game on the line just because he was a little tired.

I said in my Preview that Richardson would inevitably have a crippling turnover that would put all these bets in jeopardy. That was true several times over - I can’t even begin to articulate how horrible of a performance it was.

The internet is obviously all over it but I think Pat McAfee puts it best below:

And apparently the Colts agree because then this happened…

Wishing Upon A Flacco…A Little Too Late

I literally started my Colts Preview section with “Wishing Upon A Flacco”. Could they not have made this move during the game? Because somehow in light of Anthony Richardson’s performance, the Colts were in this game the entire time and only lost by 3 points.

I am supremely confident that if Flacco played for even a quarter of this game, the Colts would have won…

And now Flacco is starting and the Colts are 5.5 point underdogs with another trench matchup advantage against the Vikings.

Do I dare double down with Joe Flacco?

Panthers vs. Broncos

See my Previous Thoughts for reference

Football Is A Game Of Inches

Well this is frustrating because 1) Javonte Williams TD was my favorite bet of the week and he was literally INCHES away, and 2) I was all over the Broncos here and even complimented Bo Nix (sort of) in my Preview and somehow managed to strike out on this game.

Nix finished 28-37 for 284 yards with 3 TDs and 0 INTs. Oh…and a rushing TD too. And because he was so elite in the air, Javonte Williams didn’t get home on his rushing yards prop.

That’s not entirely true…Williams had the carries (17), but he was back to his 2.6 yards per carry grind, which put him at 44 for the game and woefully short of his line of 63.5.

Backup, Jaleel McLaughlin on the other hand, had 8 carries for 47 yards, or 5.9 yards per carry. Oh, and he also caught a TD pass.

Swing and a miss…

Cowboys vs. 49ers

If you’re an avid reader of this newsletter, which currently probably just means my mom and wife (thanks for the support), you’d notice these bets were not in the original Preview.

However, you’d also remember that in the Week 7 Recap, I highlighted Purdy going Over his rushing prop in all 7 games thus far and with questionable WR depth, that I only expected that trend to continue, particularly on SNF with the whole world watching.

And you’d probably also notice the Week 8 Preview went out later than usual and it would all click that I ran out of time / forgot to bet on Purdy until later in the day.

And then you’d remember the Week 6 TNF Preview fiasco where I learned the free version of beehiiv doesn’t let me publish posts within 12 hours of each other.

So then you’d realize that after publishing the Week 8 Preview on Sunday morning that there would be no way for me to publish an update Sunday afternoon and you’d probably forgive me but still acknowledge that I was all over the Purdy props which is very cool.

You’d probably then point to the Twitter (x) and Reddit accounts I mentioned earlier as mediums in which I could have publicized my Purdy bets…and to that I’d say…

No excuses, play like a champion.