Well for the first time in a few weeks, this week hasn’t gone well. There were some legitimately horrible bad beats with the Falcons missing a PAT, the Rams unnecessarily going into OT, and then some key injuries (Drake London, A.J. Brown, Chris Olave, etc.) that have really skewed the results, but hey, that’s part of it.

Full Week 9 recap to come after one more game tonight where the Bucs visit the Chiefs with a little bit of weather in the forecast.

I think the Chiefs take down the Bucs with a “death by a thousand cuts” approach that features Kareem Hunt and Travis Kelce while the Bucs continue to lean on their only possibly premier pass catcher remaining in Cade Otton.

Full slip below!

Bucs vs. Chiefs

Weather May Be A Factor

The Chiefs play offense with a “death by a thousand cuts” strategy. I think some potential inclement weather only benefits that game plan, so I’m expecting to see a healthy dose of Kareem Hunt 3-yard runs and annoying little 3rd down conversions to Kelce.

Hunt’s efficiency has been steadily declining so I’ll take his attempts in place of yards. He’s over this line in his past three games.

Kelce has been streaky and I don’t like playing his props because I feel like they’re all inflated for popularity. But he has the #1 TE matchup this week according to PFF, and with the weather, I can see unlimited dump-off 5-7 yard gains. I played it up to 8.

Baker Rushing Long Boi

It’s giving Brock Purdy vibes, but when I check his game logs, he actually doesn’t accumulate too many yards, but what he does do is get surprisingly loose at least once a game. Excluding the game against Denver in which Baker had 0 rushing attempts, his longest rush is consistently in the double digies.

This line was 8.5 when I checked this afternoon (admittedly extremely late) and it moved up to 9.5 by the time I bet it (positive indicator?).

Who Else But Cade Otton?

Otton has clearly been the guy since Mike Evans and Chris Godwin went down. In his last two games, he’s gone for [receptions-targets-yards-TDs] 8-10-100-2 and 9-11-81-2. Yet his line is in the low-mid-50s…what gives?

Normally that would scare me off, but I can’t help but ask, who else is there? Sure, the Bucs like to force the running game (and it even worked against the Ravens), but even if they’re successful, those are heavy sets on the field that set up play action extremely well. And if they’re unsuccessful, the Bucs likely play with a trailing game script, and then it’s between Jalen McMillan and Trey Palmer, both of which have been battling injuries.

Then there’s the “Chiefs can’t defend against the TE” narrative: Kittle (92), Bowers (58), Gesicki (91), Likely (111), and Pitts (59). Problem is, if Otton becomes public enemy #1, can the Chiefs simply eliminate him and make other skill players beat them?

I’m going around in circles, but landing on Otton simply must be a factor tonight. Send it.

First Touchdown Super Fun Time!

Last time I tried to do a fun TD “structured product” (Lamar and Jayden Daniels), it didn’t work. So swim at your own risk here.

I’m using one unit and distributing it four ways. The chalk (Kareem Hunt) is priced in a way that if he hits, everything breaks even, while providing three different chances for big wins. Cade Otton because duh, Noah Gray because it’s so funny when he catches a TD on prime time and everyone thinks it’s Kelce and the camera pans to Taylor Swift and it’s not Kelce (lol), and then the Chiefs’ defense because Baker has been feelin’ frisky lately and it’s raining.

No excuses, play like a champion.