A quick reflection as we approach the halfway point of the regular season - I’m pretty happy with how things have played out. There have been high highs and low lows, but most importantly I’ve learned a lot so far. Everything from betting strategies to evaluating sources of information, and most importantly, my own nature.

Cumulatively, I’m sitting well in the black, but I know from Weeks 2-5 that things can turn extremely quickly.

And as I write this from an Airbnb in the presence of some of my best friends who also happen to make up a chunk of my audience, I can’t help but feel like the pressure is on.

For my ego, please don’t let this be the negative inflection point. And please don’t let the Bears lose on another hail mary…

Teasers

Once again, I’ll start here. My worksheet says the following:

• Covers: Chiefs, Lions, Colts, Falcons, Panthers

• Overs: Panthers/Saints, Lions/Packers, Falcons/Cowboys, Bears/Cardinals

• Unders: Browns/Chargers, Eagles/Jaguars, Bengals/Raiders

But here’s what my eyes and other research tells me about those (quick thoughts)

• Covers

  • Chiefs: MNF and rain in the forecast. Let’s wait.

  • Lions: Rain in the forecast. Goff isn’t good in weather. If there wasn’t so much murkiness around Jordan Love’s injury, I’d actually be all over the Packers here (despite my worksheet)

  • Colts: Yes. Hammer time. Although the players reception to the Anthony Richardson benching and Joe Flacco starting has me a little worried. Plus the Vikings tend to play better on their opening scripts, so this may just be a live bet situation.

  • Falcons: Yes. Hammer time.

  • Panthers: No. Insta-banned list.

• Overs

  • Panthers/Saints: I’ll buy the Saints’ end of this.

  • Lions/Packers: Weather…can’t do it.

  • Falcons/Cowboys: Yes. Hammer time.

  • Bears/Cardinals: If I wasn’t a Bears fan, it’d be hammer time, but I’m too emotionally attached. Let’s double down on Cole Kmet and call it a day.

• Unders

  • Browns/Chargers: Yes. Hammer time.

  • Eagles/Jaguars + Bengals/Raiders: The Eagles and Bengals burned me last week so I’m not going back to the window this week.

If I combine the above, I get the above teaser, which encompasses my highest conviction plays of the week and informs many of the additional bets and player props below:

Saints vs. Panthers

Panthers Auto Fade

I went over this last week. The Panthers remain an auto fade team. I’ve heard “experts” legitimately talk about them as one of the worst teams in recent history.

The crazy thing is, they continue to rank highly in my offensive/defensive line advantage worksheet. They just don’t have the necessary skill players to capitalize on that advantage.

Saints Getting Their Mojo Back

Meanwhile, the Saints are getting Derek Carr back and it looks like Taysom Hill is healthy enough. Mix in a weak defense and you have the same recipe as the first couple weeks of the season when the Saints looked like Super Bowl contenders.

I’m generally just pro Saints offense, but would favor rushing here given Carr’s fresh return. If there’s going to be a Taysom Hill game this year, it’s this one.

Perhaps the Panthers can figure it out a little bit on offense. Hubbard is good and Coker flashed a bit, but the defense remains an open, festering wound.

Saints by a billion.

Falcons vs. Cowboys

🚨 FAVORITE GAME OF THE DAY 🚨

And once again, for good reason - it’s the highest point total on the board this week. The Falcons play fast and the Cowboys are still without Micah Parsons. They also don’t run well but they do have Ceedee Lamb.

Points Points Points

Call me crazy but I’m a Falcons believer. Am I probably a little biased from those two insane games against the Bucs earlier this year? Yes.

Does that make the Falcons frauds? Well I certainly hope not. At least not against a middling (at best) defense that’s down a few key components

The Falcons play fast, they have a solid offensive line, and most importantly, they have the necessary cogs to capitalize on that advantage.

In other words, they are the antitheses to the Carolina Panthers.

Dying On The “Cowboys Are Frauds” Hill

I am maintaining my position that the Cowboys are fraudulent. I don’t like anything about this team. The lack of rushing ability, Dak’s inconsistency, the overreliance on Ceedee Lamb, play calling, ownership, etc. etc. etc.

Yet somehow I feel like they burn me every time I try to fade them.

And the thing about this matchup is that the Cowboys should have offensive success too (particularly through the air).

I think this game has big time shootout potential and in that scenario, I trust Kirk Cousins more than Dak Prescott. And while Ceedee Lamb may be the best player on the field, after him, I’ll take the Falcons skill players at just about every position.

Give me Bijan. Give me Drake London. Give me Darnell Mooney. Give me Kirk Cousins. Give me ALL THE POINTS.

Broncos vs. Ravens

Ravens: “You Wouldn’t Like Me When I’m Angry”

The Ravens are coming off a bad divisional loss against Jameis Winston and the Browns. That’s really it. I feel sorry for the Broncos here because they’re just innocent bystanders in this situation.

I’ve clearly been on the Bo Nix train sporadically throughout the season so far. I do think he’s better than people think, but this just isn’t the time to be slingin’ it down the field.

As for the first half split, the Ravens tend to start fast and blow leads late while the Broncos tend to start slow and come back in the second half. If that holds true, not only should this bet hit, but perhaps there are some live betting opportunities here.

That may be true, but from the starting blocks, there’s no way I’m standing in front of an angry Ravens train.

Bears vs. Cardinals

Calling My Shot On Kmet…Again

The Bears actually have a decent pass protection matchup this weekend and Kmet has the #2 TE matchup according to PFF.

Otherwise, I can’t trust the Bears after last week (still don’t want to talk about it), but I’d like to imagine they’d look back at the film and realize good things happen when Cole Kmet is a significant part of the offense.

Same ol’ Bears…prove me wrong.

Rams vs. Seahawks

The Rams Are Good, Get Over It

That’s pretty much the sentiment behind this bet. Similar to last week’s TNF matchup against the Vikings, I think they have a bigger advantage in the trenches than they are given credit for, and it was rapidly apparent last week that the reintroduction of Puku Nacua and Cooper Kupp turns the heat up on this offense by several degrees.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks have struggled without D.K. Metcalf who won’t be playing again this week. There were some other variables I was watching this week (weather, Nacua knee injury, etc.), but it’s all looking good for the Rams now.

Rams by a billion.

Super Touchdown Fun Time!

Like I mentioned above, these are just for fun considering my present company and the entertainment of rooting for TDs and long shots, but I will be including them in the weekly and cumulative results.

No excuses, play like a champion.