Before getting into Week 10, this recap is a bit late and Week 11 is about to start with the Commanders visiting the Eagles on TNF. At the time of writing, this is a no bet from me. If anything, it’s an Under bet; particularly if the Total keeps inching higher. Both teams have a modest rushing advantage and passing disadvantage in the trenches. Divisional matchup. Thursday night. Under and/or pass. Stay tuned…

Okay, on to Week 10, which was my first losing week in nearly a month, and boy was it pretty bad.

Certainly I was due, but it all happened in just a little more embarrassing fashion than I was expecting.

It all started Thursday night, and while this all sounds pitiful, it’s all honest and true - I put a lot of time and effort into TNF last week and got absolutely nothing in return. It was super defeating and internet-embarrassing and it just sent me into a dark, rage-y betting spiral for the rest of the weekend.

And while that’s obviously never a good strategy, I do feel like sometimes it’s needed to get back to center. For the past two weeks, I had been fishing for longer and longer shot wins while teetering closer and closer to the edge of profitability, but it was still working (I was getting lucky).

All it took was one deep dive gone horribly wrong for me to send me over the edge and just hunt for breakout games and 4-5 digit plus odds to make it all back.

Now being on the other side of it, I’m ready to get back to the basics with more Sides, Totals, and Teasers, which have continued to work pretty well for me.

The 4-leg, 7-point teaser for +200 is feeling really good. It reminds me of playing the thirds in roulette - $25 on the first third and $25 on the middle third. If one hits, you lose the other one, but the winner pays 2:1 so you walk away with more than what you came with. In other words, if I can hit them at a >33% clip (which has certainly been happening), it’s a winning strategy (at least for me, for now).

Week 10 Performance Summary

Teasers

See my Previous Thoughts for reference

Teasers Remain The Highlight

Once again, the Teaser section is a highlight. I’m actually cool with the Falcons/Saints miss on the teased Over because 1) I just had the wrong read on that game as it was clearly a Saints dead cat bounce and Falcons let down spot. Plus, there were some missed field goals. But I should have known better than to rely on the Jets’ offense. I picked their spot perfectly last week and should have just hopped right off the wagon.

For the winning teaser, the Colts were pretty close to blowing it, and the Lions mounted their incredible comeback on SNF (more below), but they all ended up coming through.

Notice the odds here - going 1-1 on two +200 Teasers is actually a huge win, and finally, since it seems like I have a knack for being “close enough” on a handful of selected spreads/totals, I will certainly be employing more of these in Week 11. Stay tuned.

Let’s recap how the spreadsheet fared:

• Passing: Jets (❌), Falcons (✅), Bears (❌), Pats (❌), Chiefs (✅), Chargers (❌), Colts (✅)

• Rushing: Lions (✅), Niners (❌), Falcons (✅), Dolphins (❌), Eagles (❌), Colts (✅), Chiefs (❌), Giants (✅), Steelers (✅)

• Cover: Lions (❌), Niners (❌), Falcons (❌), Eagles (✅), Steelers (✅), Colts, Chargers (✅)

• Over: ATL/NO (❌), KC/DEN (❌), NYG/CAR (❌), NYJ/ARI (❌)

• Under: MIN/JAX (✅)

Overall, not that great. Perhaps that’s a little more explanation behind my poor week.

Bengals vs. Ravens (TNF)

See my Previous Thoughts for reference

The Beginning Of The End

TNF was the beginning of the end for me. I don’t mean to come off as pitiful but I tried really hard for this game and got absolutely curb stomped in return. I put in hours of analysis and thought I uncovered a legitimate angle with Mike Gesicki.

To put it simply, in games without Tee Higgins (CIN WR2), Gesicki had showed a demonstrable increase in all pass catching metrics and while his prop lines had adjusted upward, I had a strong feeling they weren’t adjusted highly enough simply because he was a TE instead of WR (even though he had been filling the role of WR2).

I even made all these beautiful charts and tables!

A few components did play out as expected - it was a high scoring game, Joe Burrow threw the ball a lot, and Gesicki had a pretty decent share of those throws.

Just Catch The Ball!

But between errant throws and tight coverage, the catch conversion just wasn’t there. Gesicki ended with just 4 catches on 9 targets for 30 yards despite Burrow attempting 56 passes. Catching less than half his targets in high usage games (i.e., excluding games with only 1-3 targets) is something Gesicki’s only done a handful of times in his career.

And he didn’t even have any drops. The Ravens were just all over him. Which leads me to believe that if someone like me can figure out Gesicki’s likely upside in a game, the opposing defense likely can too, and they clearly made an effort to take it away.

Chase Running Wild

However, perhaps they should have focused more attention on Ja’Marr Chase because he had 11 receptions on 17 targets for 264 yards and 3 TDs, which is one of the craziest stat lines I’ve ever seen.

This game had 69 points - how does a guy with 9 targets not come away with at least 5 receptions, 50 yards, OR a single TD?!?

Pity Party

Honestly it’s not the lack of dollar payout that gets me (because that’s part of being a casual bettor), it’s the lack of payout on my time and effort that sent me into a dark spiral for the rest of the weekend.

I was even pushing my analysis around on Twitter to gain more followers because I thought I looked smart, but NO, IDIOT!

49ers vs. Bucs

See my Previous Thoughts for reference

Next Man Up…To Miss All His Props

After Gesicki and the Bengals, Kittle and this game was where the second biggest portion of my time, effort, and money went to. And while at least a few things hit home, most of them missed. The Niners continue to look so good on paper, but it’s just not the same on the field. Meanwhile, the Bucs are pretty much the exact opposite. Baker nearly willed them to this victory, although without 3 missed field goals from Niners’ kicker, Jake Moody, this game actually wouldn’t have been close.

Saints vs. Falcons

See my Previous Thoughts for reference

Bijan Robinson Is Automatic

I mentioned it before, but I had no business betting on the Falcons in this spot. The Saints just fired their maligned coach and hired a rah-rah guy when playing at home against a divisional rival. That is the exact recipe for one single week of success, and that’s why I will be fading the Saints so hard this coming week. Stay tuned…

Jets vs. Cardinals

See my Previous Thoughts for reference

Here’s another winner. I think the Jets officially move to the insta-ban list with the Panthers. I picked them last week at the exact right time but should have known it was merely a good spot vs. an actual inflection point. Their offense almost looks as bad as the Bears. Notice how I said almost.

I also just can’t quite figure out the Cardinals. I was actually high on them at the beginning of the season, but after a couple clunkers, I got off of them and chalked them up to bad defense with sometimes good offense. But every time I’ve bet against them, they show up, and if I reverse direction and bet on them, they lay an egg.

I feel like there’s always a team like that...

Bills vs. Colts

See my Previous Thoughts for reference

Joe Flacco is a pumpkin - who would ever think the Colts should play him over Anthony Richardson?!?

…Certainly not me since Week 8. Nope, no way, couldn’t be me.

Lions vs. Texans (SNF)

Last Minute Spiral Pays Off?

Alright, so notice this game was not included in the Week 10 Preview. I was waiting on Nico Collins injury news before betting. Once he was announced out, I put in those first two bets on the Lions to cover because I truly thought they would steamroll the Texans. If you’ve been following closely the past few weeks, I’ve been actively fading the Texans since Collins and Diggs went down. Things changed a bit when Mixon came back, but they were still a mega fade.

Texans First Half Domination Station

If you watched this game, you know that the Texans absolutely dominated the Lions in the first half. Jared Goff had his pumpkin game (usually happens at least 1-2 times per year) and the Lions just couldn’t get out of their own way.

But I believed. I believed in their offensive line, the Lions’ coaching staff, and the game changing ability of Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Throughout the first half, I continued to incrementally live bet the Lions to come back and win - all the way to halftime when they were down 16 points at +630 odds.

Lions Second Half Domination Even More Station

And yes, I was still spiraling from Thursday and a poor start to Sunday, so I may have also gotten a little frisky with the “next player to catch a pass” bets, but wouldn’t you know it, the Lions came out and dominated in the second half, including some well-timed catches from Jahmyr Gibbs (✅), and they came all the way back and won on a game-winning field goal as time expired.

The Texans didn’t score a single point in the second half.

All is right in the world again. The Lions didn’t cover the pre-game closing spread, but I’ll take +630 instead any day of the week.

Dolphins vs. Rams (MNF)

See my Previous Thoughts for reference

Aaaaaaand Back To Spiral Mode

Once again, I was correctly on the Dolphins as soon as Tyreek Hill was announced in, but instead of actually taking them on the spread or ML, I went with player props instead, and once again, I essentially struck out.

Expect change next week, I’m serious this time!

What’s annoying, though, is that I was very correctly on fading Raheem Mostert rushing attempts, even though 1) I didn’t put on a bet to express that trade, and 2) the entire internet was on his rushing attempts Over 7.5 and 8.5. He had 0…

But I did put out a tweet pre-game and BettingPros liked it so maybe I am smart after all?

Super Touchdown Fun Time!

See my Previous Thoughts for reference

Once again, super touchdown NOT fun time. These are always very longshots but barely any of them were even close.

No excuses, play like a champion.