There’s no hiding from it- TNF didn’t go well. Hours of research went in to supporting the Gesicki bets and he just didn’t hit. The targets were there, but the reception conversions were not. Brutal all around.

Following that kick to the nuts, I’ve also had a busy few days so it seemed like an appropriate time to keep things a bit more surface level for the remainder of the week.

Plus, I’m legitimately running out of time on this Sunday morning, so below is an abridged version of my typical Sunday preview - hopefully it’s a one-time thing because the whole point of this is to spell out the rationale for every bet (but if I crush it, I guess we’ll see).

Teasers

The Worksheet favors:

• Passing: Jets, Falcons, Bears, Pats, Chiefs, Chargers, Colts

• Running: Lions, Niners, Falcons, Dolphins, Eagles, Colts, Chiefs, Giants, Steelers

• Cover: Lions, Niners, Falcons, Eagles, Steelers, Colts, Chargers

• Over: ATL/NO, KC/DEN, NYG/CAR, NYJ/ARI

• Under: MIN/JAX

My Quick Thoughts:

• Colts: Obviously, I’ve had a rocky relationship with the Colts and I just can’t seem to quit them. The way I look at it, they have one more chance here. Flacco was under pressure constantly last week which just really isn’t his jam. This week should be better, while the Colts defense potentially has an even better matchup against the Bills. I love Josh Allen and he always makes the Bills scary to fade, but it’s not a huge secret that playing zone coverage and plugging the run is how you neutralize Josh Allen and beat the Bills. That’s what the Colts can do. One more strike, Colts…

• Lions/Niners: Similar situations to me. Both are simply better than their opponents on paper, but both the Texans and Bucs have shown the ability to take down a top team. Problem is, both those teams are injured at the key WR position. Meanwhile, the Lions are fairly healthy and the Niners are coming off their bye - not necessarily fully healthy but they have a significant rest advantage over the Bucs who are coming off a grueling MNF loss. Kittle has the #1 TE matchup this week according to PFF, and Deebo typically plays well against a zone. And of course, Brock Purdy rushing is undefeated. Let’s see how that holds with CMC returning.

• Jets: Yes, I’ll buy their passing advantage. The three-headed monster (Rodgers, Wilson, and Adams) looked good last week and this matchup against the Cardinals gives no reason why that should change. I do still think Rodgers is a doo-doo head and the Cardinals have continuously burned me this year, so I’m being cautious, but I know Rodgers will force feed Davante Adams in the red zone, and they should be able to get there at least a few times.

• Falcons: I’m a believer, although I’ve heard many experts jumping on the Saints for the post-coach-firing dead cat bounce. Plus, Carr is a different QB without pressure, which is something the Falcons don’t exactly bring to the table. It’s a divisional matchup and prime letdown spot for the Falcons so I’m treading lightly, but I still think their inherent advantage at the O-line and skill players around them should prevent them from choking here. Bijan is unstoppable.

• Chargers: The Titans aren’t good, but they can still stop the run sometimes. The Chargers want to run, but since their bye, they’ve proven that they can pass. Plus, the advantage is there and the receivers are back to healthy.

• Bears: Nope.

• Pats: Nope.

• Chiefs: Dominant but in a divisional matchup with a huge spread, it has to be Broncos or nothing. But I’m also not going to load up my slip against the Chiefs.

• Dolphins: Pass.

• Eagles: Feel like a trap. Pass.

49ers vs. Bucs

Saints vs. Falcons

Jets vs. Cardinals

Bills vs. Colts

Super Touchdown Fun Time!

No excuses, play like a champion.