We have officially crossed into the second half of the NFL regular season, and somehow I’m still profitable. The darkness of Weeks 2-5 started to creep up on me in Weeks 8 & 9 but some stellar MNF slates have saved me in back to back weeks.

Enter Week 10 with a fantastic TNF matchup in the Bengals taking on the Ravens with a 52.5 point total. Hey, look at us.

I struggle with this game because my handy-dandy offensive/defensive line worksheet that I have been (successfully) relying on the past four winning weeks absolutely SCREAMS Under in this game.

I like that spreadsheet because I believe most games are won/covered in the trenches (likely more than the average fan gives credit), but there are certain times where the skill players outside the trenches can take over. For example, my sheet has been all over the Panthers all year but anyone who has watched a second of their games knows that’s a no-no (except last week, of course).

I would classify both the Ravens and Bengals as offenses whose skill players can tip the scales in their favor on a regular basis. Plus, their defenses have been pretty weak and the last time they played, it was an absolute shootout for 79 points. So I guess I’ll go with the crowd here.

But what’s different this time? Tee Higgins is Doubtful and presumably not in the lineup for the Bengals.

Enter Mike Gesicki who has been somewhat filling that role and who I’m estimating (and hoping) will continue to do so tonight.

Fair warning, I went deep on the Gesicki analysis and by the end of it, this is now the heaviest I’ve been on any single player so far this season.

Nobody say the I-word.

Bengals vs. Ravens

Is Mike Gesicki The New Tee Higgins?

Well, no, but there’s substantial evidence to suggest the answer could at least be “almost”.

There’s a pretty stark contrast in Gesicki’s usage in the pass game with and without Tee Higgins on the field.

With Higgins, Gesicki is averaging 1.6 receptions for 14.2 yards per game. Without Higgins, he’s averaging 5.5 receptions for 71 yards per game. And more recently in Weeks 8 and 9 (without Higgins), he’s averaging 6 receptions for 87 yards per game.

That’s an insane split:

So What’s Higgins Status For Tonight?

Doubtful (at the time of writing).

And What Does That Mean For Gesicki?

Well it should mean an 18% target share (instead of 5%) and 12-15 yards per reception (instead of 4). If that’s the case, it’s just a function of how many times Joe Burrow and the Bengals pass the ball.

Burrow’s attempts line is set at 36.5, while the game’s Total line is set at 52.5, both of which are extremely high.

If Burrow comes anywhere close to that line and Gesicki maintains his non-Higgins target share (18-19%), reception rate (80-85%), and yards per reception (12-15), he should fly over both his receiving props (4-5 receptions and ~50 yards, depending on the book) with relative ease.

It’s worth pointing out, Gesicki’s props are higher than they’ve ever been, which 1) can be viewed as confirmatory evidence, or 2) that I’m simply buying Gesicki at peak prices. I’m obviously choosing to believe the former and think the line adjustment simply isn’t enough because he’s not Tee Higgins.

The whole idea is so sound that it actually makes me nervous, but I have to trust my gut (and the numbers) that Gesicki is filling more of Higgins’ role than the books are willing to give him credit for.

Risk Of Injuries, Game Script, Iosivas, Etc.

There’s always risk to this. Like I said at the top, my ol’ reliable worksheet on trench matchups strongly suggests an Under for this game. The more distant history of AFC North short week matchups would likely agree.

And then there is always risk of being bitten by the injury bug; not just for Gesicki, but Burrow as well. None of that is predictable but certainly there’s a positive correlation between targets and injuries, right?

This is the heaviest I’ve ever been on a single player. The Ja’Maar Chase bets are simply for some sort of diversification (which somewhat appeases my financial analysis brain), but then again one of my buddies told me last weekend “SCARED MONEY DON’T MAKE MONEY”, which seems like pretty sound logic too.

Gesicki, please don’t get hurt. 

No excuses, play like a champion.