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NFL Week 10 MNF Betting Preview
On The Fence On The Hill (There’s Something There, I Know It)

This is a tough one - at the time of placing my bets and beginning to write, Tyreek Hill was Questionable and supposedly a game-time decision with a wrist injury (from preseason but reaggravated this week).
After honest attempts, I couldn’t get a clean read on the internet (not that I’d expect myself to), but given the line movements in the Rams’ favor and towards the Under, I’d say the market expected him to not play (or at least be limited if he does).
Fast forward to when I’m nearly done with tonight’s newsletter and Hill is announced IN. Firstly, this is like the third time this has happened to me this year when scrambling for prime time games (which is annoying), but at least this time I placed my bets with this potential outcome in mind (in terms of game script).
Plus, there’s always a chance Hill is simply a decoy and/or re-injures his wrist during the game, in which case I would feel even better about these bets (but seriously not rooting for injuries and never will).
But regardless, the prices of all my bets have now moved (against me). Again, I knew this would happen if Hill was announced in, but it was a risk I was willing to take given the opposite would have happened if he was officially announced Out.
Imagine getting gas because your buddy told you prices at the pump are about the go up, and then after filling your tank and leaving the station, you see the price per gallon drop 20 cents.
That’s pretty much what happened to me tonight.
Is it life changing? No.
Do I maybe want to knock over a few Citi bikes in frustration? Yes.
Dolphins vs. Rams

Source: PFF
Bet Summary | |||
---|---|---|---|
1.50u | Jonnu Smith 4+ rec | -128 | |
0.50u | Jonnu Smith 6+ rec | +270 | |
1.00u | De'Von Achane O 42.5 rec yds | -110 | |
1.00u | De'Von Achane O 54.5 rush yds | -110 | |
0.50u | De'Von Achane 70+ rush yds | +184 | |
1.50u | Puka Nacua O 67.5 rec yds | -110 |
Shootout Potential Muted
With a healthy Hill, this game has legit shootout potential. It still does, but I’d be more willing to bet a total in the 50s knowing he’s fully healthy than in the high-40s without him or at anything less than 100%.
On the other side of the ball, the Rams are finally looking healthy and barring another weak-sauce-punch-to-the-helmet ejection from Puka Nacua, it’s hard to see them sputtering out against anything other than an elite defense (of which the Dolphins are not).
The problem is everyone knows that and since the Rams have been winning, they are inflated at almost every angle. To be safe, I’m simply playing Puka because he seems like the #1 WR over Cooper Kupp (to me) and perhaps last game’s ejection doesn’t put his yards line at a total premium.
The Bright Lights
Given that inflation on the Rams, I’m inclined to take the Dolphins, but the uncertainty of Hill is tough to get over. Plus, Tua tends to not play as well in night games. It may sound silly, but with his concussion history, is it crazy to think the bright lights of a night game could actually affect him?
This could end up being a live bet in favor of the Dolphins depending on how Hill and Tua look…but we’ll see.
Want To Bet Jonnu? (But Say It Like It Rhymes)
With or without Hill, Jonnu Smith’s involvement has been solid over the past few weeks and given the Dolphins slight edge in the run game (at least according to my worksheet), the play action and over-the-middle pass should be open for Smith.
And for what it’s worth, it seems like the Dolphins have been scheming directly for him.

Source: PFF
He’s had a nice few games so his yards and receptions prop lines are both intriguing and inflated. His yards line has more than tripled in the past 4 weeks while his receptions line has moved more incrementally, so I’m more comfortable taking his receptions tonight (but again, both feel good).
Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Prop Line History

Source: bettingpros.com
Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop Line History

Source: bettingpros.com
Staying On the Achane
One thing has been consistent for the Dolphins, and that’s De’Von Achane (especially with Tua under center). The last two games (with Tua), Achane has 268 rushing and receiving yards on 22 carries and 14 receptions.
The man is simply everywhere and unlike some other dynamic, pass-catching RBs (looking at you, Kamara), he’s been consistent in getting both rushing and receiving yards in each game, so I’m playing both individually instead of the combined rushing/receiving prop which conveniently adds a few extra yards to the two totals for good measure.
I’m also playing a small ladder on his rushing yards since my offensive/defensive line advantage worksheet says the Dolphins have a distinct run game advantage tonight and I must honor the sheet.
Laying Off The Mustard
I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about Raheem Mostert (or “Raheem Mustard” as my wife calls him). Since returning from injury, he’s put up some good numbers:

Source: PFF
Look at those attempts and tell me why his line is set at 7.5 tonight. Then factor in that his line 3 and 4 games ago was 8.5 and after going OVER it consecutively, his line went down to 7.5 against the Bills and then despite going OVER AGAIN, it remained at 7.5 for tonight’s game.

Source: bettingpros
Something’s fishy here and my only explanation is that he’s fumbled in 2 of the last 3 games, the last of which was in a crucial situation against the Bills. Meanwhile, Jaylen Wright (RB3) has shown a bit of burst, so does Mostert find a bit more pine tonight in favor of Jaylen Wright?
It seems like a smash spot (and it very well could be), and I’ve seen a lot of Gambling Twitter on it, but I’m staying away in case the above is right.
No excuses, play like a champion.