Week 15 Performance Summary

Not the bounce back I was hoping for, but the tables definitely turned. If I remove TNF, which was just an outlier-level awful game, I was +4.1u with a 23% return for the week.

Mix in a couple of very near misses, and I’m pretty happy with that. After TNF, and in the face of a full (no-Bye) slate, I think I did a good job of capping the bet slip and only focusing on my highest conviction bets while still mixing in the appropriate amount of fun/long-shot bets to boost the entertainment value of watching the games (looking at you MNF).

Be sure to check out the Recaps for additional context behind all these bets and explanations:

• TNF Recap

• Sunday Recap

• MNF Recap

Rams vs. 49ers

Bad Bad Bad

Fun Facts: The Rams and 49ers have played each other 152 times and, until now, have never had a game with no TDs. It was also the lowest scoring game of Kyle Shanahan’s coaching career since his very first game in 2017. It’s also the first time two teams who scored 35+ points in the previous week scored no TDs in a game since 1922.

That’s the kind of historical bad we’re talking about.

But at least I was right about one thing…it was a close game.

Troll City

A friend of mine texted me and said he was riding with me on Kittle but fading me on Kupp.

Kupp finished with 0 receptions, which is unheard of, but technically he was right.

But joke’s on you, buttface because Kittle was 1 catch and 0.5 yards shy of his numbers too. A loss is a loss.

Week 15 Scoring Summary

Sunday Recap

Well, it didn’t start too hot with Bryce Young and Chase Brown missing their props. And then the Browns blew the teaser and Stone Smartt and Keon Coleman were catch-less to start their games. I thought for sure I was continuing down the dark, dark path of Week 14.

But then Stone Smartt reels in a 31-yarder and Josh Allen finds Keon Coleman for a 64-yard bomb. That was the turning point in the week and I barely lost another bet after that - and those that I did lose were at least pretty close.

In other words…

Teaser

Lord, please deliver me from betting on the Browns.

The Browns are done. Jameis is done/benched. I hate to do it, but ban list.

It really sucks because the rest of the calls were right. The Giants almost blew it but like I said, 24 points is just SOOO much in the NFL, even if the Giants are miserable and definitely worse than the Bears.

Player Props

I haven’t watched the replays of the Bengals and Panthers games yet but the box scores tell me the Bryce Young and Chase Brown bets weren’t really close. Brown caught a TD, but he really wasn’t heavily used in the pass game, and Young only rushed three times so that thesis never really played out.

My thesis on Keon Coleman actually didn’t play out either. I was pegging him as the man coverage beater but despite Josh Allen passing 34 times, Coleman only had one catch on two targets. Fortunately for me, that one catch came on a 64-yard scramble drill bomb. I may have gotten a little lucky on this one…

Stone Smartt, on the other hand, played out exactly as I expected. His line was low because he’s a backup, but he filled Will Dissly’s role and brought in 5 receptions on 6 targets for 50 yards, justtttt enough to cash my alt line ladder.

And Josh Allen rushing was never in doubt. He finished with 11 carries for 68 yards against the Lions’ heavy man coverage defense.

Honorable Mentions

The honorable mentions went even better than my bet slip, which makes me think I actually would have been up big if I didn’t show restraint and discipline in the bet slip. That’s just how it goes sometimes…

• ❌ DET -2.5

• ✅ Jerry Jeudy O rec yds

• ✅/✅ Jahmyr Gibbs O rec and rec yds

• ✅ Eagles -5.5

• ✅ AJ Brown receptions (squeaky wheel theory)

• ✅ Packers -2.5 (NFC North dominance)

Bears vs. Vikings (MNF 1/2)

No Questions At This Time

How do you convince a 1000 year old woman to sell a football team that’s been in her family’s possession since 1920? I can’t do it anymore! - see my rant in the preview…

Props Recap

I thought I was golden when Swift caught a 10-yard pass on the second drive of the game, but nope, he didn’t even see another target. And it wasn’t an injury thing either - he rushed 19 times for 79 yards. Bad miss.

Aaron Jones was a sure thing. He averaged 4.8 yards per carry and with a leading game script, the Vikings were able to run him 18 times and Cam Akers an additional 10 times. Somehow, Akers didn’t get to 27 yards on those 10 carries but interestingly enough, he had several negative carries that amounted to -5 yards. So without those, he would have hit his number.

Reichard was also money. I knew my luck had changed when he hit his first 50+ yarder in the first quarter after I very specifically foreshadowed a 50+ yard miss to wreck this bet. He finished 3/3 on field goals and 3/3 on PATs for a total of 12 kicking points. Am I undefeated on kicker bets this year?

Honorable Mentions

• ❌ Caleb Williams Rushing Ladder

• ✅/✅MIN First Half Spread/ML 

• ❌ Aaron Jones 3+ TDs 

Falcons vs. Raiders (MNF 2/2)

Terrible Game Sweat

Was this a terrible game or what? A completely over the hill (and now benched) Kirk Cousins against a completely inept Raiders offense.

Bijan had 22 carries; Drake London finally caught a TD pass; Sincere McCormack sadly went down with another injury; and Ameer Abdullah stepped up…but otherwise, not much happened in this game

BUT, if you bet on the spread later in the week (like me), there were major implications for ATL -5.5 bettors.

The Falcons were up 15-3 with 9 minutes left in the game when Desmond Ridder threw an interception which was returned all the way into Vegas territory.

As an ATL -5.5 bettor, I’m feeling pretty good because the Falcons can now run down the clock and score either a TD, or more likely a field goal - but either of which would protect my 5.5 point spread against a final Raiders garbage TD.

But with the Falcons’ offense being as bad as they are with Cousins behind the wheel, they only take up three minutes of game clock and then Koo MISSES the 42-yard field goal.

So now the Raiders are getting the ball back with 5 ½ minutes to play and I just know they are going to march down the field and score a TD to make it a 15-10 game and completely ruin my ATL -5.5 bet and once again illustrate the importance of betting early in the week when the number was in the 3-4 point range.

And sure enough, the Raiders march right down the field and score that TD in just 2 ½ minutes. I know I’m sunk…

…But the PAT is BLOCKED!!! 15-9!!! It’s a miracle in Vegas and my ATL -5.5 is still alive!

Unfortunately, at this point, Jakobi Meyers has had an extremely quiet game with next to no stats until the fourth quarter. The previous TD drive got him 26 yards, but it just wasn’t going to be enough. But that’s okay, I’ll take my ATL -5.5 and move on.

Not so fast - the Falcons get the ball back with just under 3 minutes to play and go 3-and-out. Great, now the Raiders are going to have a chance to blow my bet again and actually win the game.

Nope - roughing the passer on the failed 3rd down gives the Falcons an automatic first down (and it was a bogus call, too).

But the Falcons go 3-and-out AGAIN and have to punt with just under 2 minutes to play, and of course it’s a touchback so now the Raiders have another chance starting on their own 20.

So now Jakobi Meyers is back in play and I can’t help but wonder if it’s possible to have my cake and eat it too? The Raiders start marching… 11-yard reception to Meyers and then a 22-yard reception to Meyers, and that’s enough to hit his Over!

There’s my cake, but that pass brought Vegas into Falcons’ territory - close enough to attempt a hail mary...

With 10 seconds left, the Raiders run a hail mary and it’s incomplete…but there’s still 2 seconds left on the clock.

One. More. Chance.

They throw it deep to Meyers…it looks like he has it, but then it’s picked off. Falcons win 15-9 and cover 5.5 points. Meyers ends with 59 receiving yards, just Over his line of 57.5.

I got my cake, and I ate it too.

And now it’s almost midnight on a Monday and I’m ready to run through a brick wall.

Touchdown & Longshot Parlay Super Fun Time!

No excuses, play like a champion.