Week 15 started out pretty bad, huh? Not exactly the bounce back I was hoping for, but hey, no touchdowns scored between the Rams and 49ers for the first time in like 150 meetings? That’s just a freak bad loss for offensive props.

The Sunday slate is pretty interesting considering the early window is full of relatively uninteresting games with a lot of losing records, but the afternoon slate is incredible.

There are too many playoff implications to properly cover, I’m reeling myself in after the brutal Week 14 and start to 15, and I’m running out of time, so today’s newsletter is a bit more abridged than previous ones.

Maybe that’ll change my luck!

Teaser

I don’t feel too strongly about any of the early-window games, but I obviously want to have some skin in the game…

• Browns: I hate that I’m on the Browns, but the matchup couldn’t be better! The Chiefs have an extremely vulnerable offensive line that Miles Garrett and the Browns pass rush can absolutely exploit. And the Chiefs’ defense is a pass funnel which is perfect for Jameis Winston. HOWEVER, there is some weather in Cleveland today that could disrupt the pass game. Otherwise, I’d be a lot heavier on the Browns and likely a Jerry Jeudy receiving yards ladder - the dude is so hot right now.

• Commanders: The Commanders tend to beat up on bad teams. What even are the Saints right now? No Carr or Taysom Hill… Jayden Daniels going back to Louisiana - I’m comfortable taking the Commanders to “not lose” here.

• Giants: This is purely about the number. Yes, the Ravens are literally so much better than the Giants, but 17 points is SO MANY in today’s NFL. If I can tack on another 7 for comfort, I think I’m happy here…right?

• Jaguars: Who are the Jets to be favored against anyone? This is less about being high on the Jags and all about fading the Jets who I still think are a dumpster fire.

Bryce Young

Is he good now? Not weighing in on that, but he is playing with confidence and seemingly much more freedom. He’s over this mark in the past 4 games and all were against teams with decent pass rushes, which is about the only thing the Cowboys can do right sometimes.

Micah Parsons also looked mad last game, which I honestly don’t know what that means for the game, but I’d like to think he’ll channel some of that rage into his pass rush which should flush Bryce out of the pocket.

The Panthers are also favored for the first time in two games - this might be their own personal playoff game.

Chase Brown

The dude hasn’t really run the ball all that well lately but he’s been great in the pass game. Enter the Titans which can stop the run anyway and I think the best way for the Bengals to utilize Chase today is by throwing it to him instead of handing it off.

Brown also sees his target percentage increase from 8.3% against man coverage to 23.3% against zone and the Titans play zone at a 68% rate (slightly more than the League average).

Stone Smartt

Will Dissly’s target % increases from 12.9% against man coverage to 28.9% against zone coverage and the Bucs play zone at one of the highest rates in the League.

But Will Dissly is out today so it’s officially Stone Smartt time. This line feels way too low just because he’s a backup. He’s also coming off a 3-reception game for 54 yards.

Bills vs. Lions

I am so excited for this game. If you polled NFL fans for their unbiased choice of any Super Bowl matchup for this year, I think this is the most popular pick.

I do think the Lions will win and Cover, but I also think there will be more opportunistic times to take them during the game. I’ve had success live betting the Lions this year, so I think I’ll push my luck again.

As long as Goff isn’t having a turd game, I think the Lions are live bet ML and cover candidates. For example, if the Bills score first and/or are leading at half, I will likely take the Lions ML at plus money. In the same scenario, I’ll likely continue to bet Gibbs receiving props. The only reason I’m not taking that now is because the Lions could go up early and just maintain the lead, in which case Gibbs wouldn’t be featured as much in the pass game. But if they go down, hammer Gibbs receptions and yards and live “player to catch a pass next drive”.

The bit BUT here is if Jared Goff is having an off game. He doesn’t typically do that at home and indoors, but it’s possible, and we’ve seen when he’s off, he doesn’t necessarily tend to recover during the game.

Josh Allen Rushing & Keon Coleman Ladder

Both of these are based on the fact that the Lions play man coverage at the highest rate in the League. Keon Coleman’s target percentage increases from 12.4% against zone to 25.7% against man.

Josh Allen also tends to have rushing success against man coverage (because defenders are often turned around in coverage) which is the same reason why the Lions have tended to struggle against mobile QBs in the past.

41.5 is high and Allen is coming off several MVP-caliber performances, but this matchup is too good to NOT play it…

Honorable Mentions

• DET -2.5

• Jerry Jeudy O rec yds

• Jahmyr Gibbs O rec and rec yds

  • All of these were acknowledged above

• Eagles -5.5 (follow the sharp money)

• AJ Brown receptions (squeaky wheel theory)

• Packers -2.5 (NFC North dominance)

Time to change the momentum

No excuses, play like a champion.