Yesterday was a good day, snapping a very long losing streak and ultimately stopping the multi-week bleeding. I’m still down on the week thanks to the stinker of a game between the Rams and 49ers on TNF, but I’m (hesitantly) returning to the window tonight in hopes to get back to even.

If all goes according to plan, the Bears will let me down again, but this time, I won’t drag myself down with them. Oh, and Kirk Cousins would be totally back.

That may be asking a lot, but what matters most is that we aren’t mean about the Bears looking bad on Prime Time.

Bears vs. Vikings

Quick Bears Fan Rant

Let me start by saying the Bears have given me absolutely no confidence or hope in the last few weeks. I was happy that they fired Matt Eberflus but the subsequent lack of energy and enthusiasm against the 49ers last week has me even more worried than before (i.e., are there even bigger issues than just everyone hating the coach?).

The answer to that is probably yes, but aside from new ownership, what can you do about that?

Every once in a while, you’ll hear former NFL players and management talk about a chunk of teams out there who aren’t necessarily pushing to win a Super Bowl, and instead are just happy collecting steady revenue as a byproduct of their large and often historical market.

Unfortunately, I think the Bears are the poster child for that argument…

Bears’ Spot?

All that said, this is undoubtedly a Bears’ spot. Notice, I’m not putting my money on them again (and probably won’t for a long time), but the Bears are coming off one of the most #embearassing losses by any team this season while the Vikings are coming off a huge win against the Falcons that looks a lot bigger in the box score than it actually was (because it was a close game for the first three quarters).

If you mix those two together, you have a recipe for public perception to overvalue the Vikings and undervalue the Bears. Plus, this is a divisional matchup, which tend to be closer in nature across the board, but particularly in the NFC North and shockingly also for the Chicago Bears. Ask any professional bettor and they’ll tell you this is typically a spot to take the dawg.

Can’t Be…

8 out of the last 10 matchups between the Bears and Vikings have been settled by one score, including their last matchup less than a month ago in which the Bears tragically lost by 3 in OT. I say tragic, but really the Vikings destroyed the Bears and it was an absolute miracle they came back and sent this game into OT.

This will now be the second time they play (which, in my mind only adds to Minnesota’s already massive coaching edge); it’s being played in Minnesota which is known to be one of (if not the top) home field advantage in the League; and the Bears look absolutely miserable in all facets of the game.

In particular, the Bears’ offense has struggled with both communication and pressure all season. Theoretically, a blitz-heavy scheme in the loudest stadium in the League should be an absolute disaster for them. Somehow, Caleb Williams was able to navigate the blitz the last time they played, but I’d chalk that up as an anomaly before repeatable performance 100% of the time.

Bring on the false starts and delay of games…

Swift Receiving

For those reasons, many “experts” out there are on Caleb Williams rushing. It makes sense and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s out there running around like a headless chicken, but I also think both he and the Bears may have reached the salvation point in the season. This year is a wash - there’s no reason to increase risk of injury for rushing (which we all know he can do). It would be “better” for him to continue getting in-the-pocket reps…

However, one could easily make the argument that the Bears’ offensive line is so abysmal that Caleb is more likely to get hurt in the pocket than by escaping and running free.

However however, there are also stats out there that squarely place the blame on Williams. His sack to pressure rate is double and triple most of the League and the League’s best (i.e., the number of times he takes a sack when he’s pressured are disproportionately high, which is a QB stat, not an O-line stat). That was one of the negative aspects of his scouting report coming out of USC so it’s certainly worrisome to see it play out in the League to the extent it has…

But back to D’Andre Swift, with negative time to throw, I could see many quick dump-offs and screens to Swift (as well as DJ Moore and others), but Swift’s receiving numbers are extremely low, and looking at his box score, tend to be binary. He’ll either crush this or miss it by a mile - I’ll take the flyer but he’s also Questionable with a groin injury so I’m not allocating any more than 1 unit…

Aaron Jones Game

The Bears’ rush defense has been hemorrhaging. They’ve given up more than 600 yards and 6 rushing TDs in the last four games.

I could see a game script where the Vikings just hand it off to Jones for 4-6 yards again, and again, and again, and again. And honestly, if it’s effective, Darnold will start to throw off of play action, which he’s been doing extremely well recently - and that script would likely end very badly for the Bears. I could envision some SGPs that include Jones rushing, Addison and/or Jefferson receiving, and Vikings alt spreads, but my Bears’ fandom is holding me back from that.

Came Akers Late Prop Addition

I could also see a scenario in which the Vikings give Jones a rest and let Akers have his turn. Jones is also relatively injury-prone, so this is also somewhat of a hedge.

Ideally (for the bet slip), Jones crushes it and doesn’t even have to play the fourth quarter, which would give Akers the 6-8 attempts needed to hit this number.

If you’re a committed reader, you also know that I’m a believer in what I call “confirmatory lines” - i.e., lines that are suspiciously high that would normally steer you away but make me think “they know something” - so it’s ultimately an indicator and green light.

Akers rushing yards popped up at Fanduel while I was assembling my bet slip and 26.5 seemed pretty high to me. In fact, it’s the highest it’s been this year with the Vikings.

Akers has been over his line in 4 out of the last 5 games, but that miss was against the Bears in Week 12 where he only had 19 rushing yards. But that could be as a result of it being a close game considering it was his attempts were also the fewest of the year (with the Vikings) so far. Considering I’m not expecting a similarly close game, I’ll ride with Akers on this somewhat high line.

Kicker Bets Are Stupid

That may be the case, but I’ve honestly kind of crushed them this year. That said, I definitely feel lower conviction on this one than kicking bets of the past (Dicker the Kicker for president).

By all accounts, the Vikings should be able to move the ball tonight, and they should have plenty of opportunities as well. However, whether or not they turn those opportunities into TDs is another story.

So far this year, they rank 12th in red zone to TD convergence at a 57% rate while the Bears’ defense (somehow) ranks third with only a 46% rate. Now, both those trends have been trending favorably for the Vikings recently, but still, I could see some red zone stops and short field goals.

And hopefully they are short because Reichard has been money for short distance but a little shaky from 40-50+. Why am I setting myself up to get let down by a kicker? I don’t know…

I’m sorry but I have to do this…

Honorable Mentions

• Caleb Williams Rushing Ladder (explanation above)

• MIN First Half Spread/ML (purely based off the Bears’ horrible performance in the first half recently).

• Aaron Jones 3+ TDs (why not).

Falcons vs. Raiders

Prime Time Kirko?

Kirk Cousins has been pretty terrible lately. He hasn’t thrown a TD pass since 11/3 and has thrown an INT in every game since then. As a result, the Falcons have also been pretty terrible, dropping and failing to cover their last four games and losing their grip on the NFC South. It’s to the point where the “bench Cousins in favor of Michael Penix Jr.” narrative has steadily grown from whispers to borderline shouts.

But what do we know about Kirk Cousins? At some point, he completely flipped his “sucks in Prime Time” narrative on its head, winning 5 out of his last 6 (I think). He also performs significantly better in a clean pocket (given his immobility). Well, the Raiders have one of the worst pressure rates in the League and are without Maxx Crosby for the rest of the year.

The Raiders have also been eliminated from playoff contention and have an absolute mess of a situation at QB.

I’m With Desperate

The Falcons have lost a ton of ground lately, but they’re still technically in the hunt with a realistic shot at making a push. According to the NFL website (powered by AWS), they have a 26% chance to make the playoffs, and that would increase to 35% with a win tonight. Plus, their final three games are all very winnable (Giants, Commanders, and Panthers).

I’ll put my money on the team with more to play for and will hesitantly call my shot on the return of Kirk(o) Cousins.

Full disclosure, and once again as a result of being a casual bettor, the best of this line has come and gone. 3.5-4.0 points would feel a lot better than 5.5-6.0, but I’m not going to let it scare me off just because this is a hobby. It’s just the reality of the situation.

Props Decisions = Endless Pitt

It’s hard not to like all the Falcons. I wanted to go in on Drake London, Darnell Mooney (who’s also excellent in Prime Time), and Bijan Robinson, but figured it was smarter to simply go with ATL -5.5.

For what it’s worth, the Raiders tend to play man coverage at a higher-than-average rate, and Drake London sees a 5-6 point increase in target share against Man. But like I said, Darnell Mooney has his own little Prime Time thing going on. And Bijan is just awesome. I can’t choose, but like what if they all go off at the same time? Worth a very small sprinkle just in case…(see below).

Meanwhile, Jakobi Meyers has simply been a professional. Regardless of the organizational strife and QB mess, he seems to always show up. The Falcons defense hasn’t been anything special lately, so I’ll ride with Meyers (regardless of his QB) and hope for the best.

Honorable Mentions

• Michael Mayer Receiving - this line opened around 12-13 yards (I think) and has steamed up to 22.5 (at the time of writing) as a result of 1) everyone and their mom being on it, and 2) Antonio Pierce being extremely vocal about running heavy sets in tonight’s game. Although, it wouldn’t be the first time we’ve heard one thing from LV’s management and seen another thing play out on the field. I’ll pass and chalk it up to being too late.

• Ridder Rushing - tough to have a read on what he’s going to do tonight since he’s barely ran in the few games he’s played this year, but last year he scrambled quite a bit. The Falcons have developed a pass rush out of nowhere, so perhaps that flushes him out? I’m too uncertain to actually bet on it, but it’d be a fun one to root for.

• Bijan Robinson Alt 150+ Rush/Rec Yards - I could absolutely see this being a Bijan explosion game, but the odds on that bet are +250, which I don’t think are quite high enough for me to be on it. Again, a fun one to root for…

Touchdown & Longshot Parlay Super Fun Time!

I’m legitimately worried these are going to be two horrible Prime Time games, so I wanted to dedicate some resources to fun longshot parlays and TD bets.

It probably goes without saying, but if any of them hit, it pays for this whole section, and if any of the first ones hit, I think it pays for the whole night. Why not roll the dice for some fun?

No excuses, play like a champion.