Quick Administrative Interruption

As always, thank you to everyone for your support, kind words, and time dedicated to reading my newsletter.

It’s only fitting that after my worst week of the year I start actually advertising this thing. That’s right, I officially “boosted” Rule 76 on beehiiv. We shall see what happens…

I’ve also set up an initial referral program where you, the reader, are rewarded for successfully sharing Rule 76 with your friends, family, or honestly anyone who can read.

Check it out:

Rams vs. 49ers

Bad Buying Opportunity

Here’s the thing - both teams are coming off impressive wins in which they each looked like older, more impressive versions of themselves. Sure, momentum is a thing, but generally speaking, you never want to “buy” a team after they suddenly look really good in front of the whole country.

But Whose Win Means More?

On one hand, you have the 49ers who had been struggling (3 game losing streak) heading into their game last week against my Bears. All signs pointed to the Bears having the energy and enthusiasm following the firing of Matt Eberflus while the 49ers, who opened the year as Super Bowl favorites, seemed to be growing content with letting this season slip away.

Well apparently George Kittle held a players-only meeting before the game to address the 49ers relatively flat energy so far this season, and apparently even Brock Purdy was outspoken (which is uncharacteristic), and wouldn’t you know it, they came out firing against the Bears despite being without Trent Williams and Nick Bosa, and of course Brandon Aiyuk, Christian McCaffrey, and Jordan Mason among others.

Meanwhile, the Rams have been looking better and better as the season wares on and defiantly went the distance against the Bills with a vintage Josh Allen performance and lived to tell the tale - which is something not many teams can say they’ve ever done. Stafford was flawless; Nacua was electric, and the young pass rush looked cohesive.

Obviously on the surface, a win against the Bills means a whole lot more than a win against the Bears, but is there something to be said about the Niners potentially getting their mojo back vs. the Rams needing to put together a near perfect performance that included a blocked punt TD in order to take down the Bills?

What’s more replicable? Another perfect game from Stafford and the Rams, or the Niners simply believing in themselves again?

Playoff Picture

What makes this game even more interesting is that both teams are technically still in playoff contention. Although the Seahawks currently control the NFC West, the Rams have a semi-legitimate shot and the Niners technically aren’t out of it either.

That said, whoever loses this game (especially if it’s the Niners), can all but kiss their postseason hopes goodbye.

Not A Normal Rematch

These guys already played in Week 3 all the way back in September. The Rams squeaked out a 27-24 victory despite the Niners outgaining them in nearly all metrics. However, that game featured two extremely different teams with respect to injuries. Most notably, George Kittle, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua didn’t play, while Brandon Aiyuk, Nick Bosa, and Trent Williams all did.

Plus 12 more weeks of practice, preparation, and evolution, and you have two very very different teams tonight.

History

Historically, Kyle Shanahan has owned Sean McVay (10-6), although McVay has had the upper hand recently and in the postseason (which, for all intents and purposes is pretty much tonight’s game).

McVay has also performed extremely well on short rest (TNF).

Line Movements

The preseason line on this game was SF -6.5. It opened last week as a lookahead at SF -3 and was as low as -2 at the beginning of this week. It has since oscillated between 2.5-3.0.

Meanwhile, the O/U hasn’t moved as much, sliding between 48 and 50 and currently at ~48.5 given some potential rain in the forecast.

Weather

There appears to be a ~60% chance of rain for tonight’s game, but what does fall shouldn’t be too heavy (as of now).

We know wind tends to be the biggest disruptor to offense so I wouldn’t expect a possible drizzle to do too much tonight…HOWEVER, Brock Purdy doesn’t have big hands and he has struggled with a wet ball in the past.

Injuries

It’s Week 15 so both teams are dealing with a list of injuries, but the 49ers easily have the more impactful report. Most importantly, Trent Williams and Nick Bosa are out again while Isaac Guerendo (RB3) will be playing through a foot sprain and Brock Purdy was out two games ago with a shoulder injury (although he looked pretty healthy against the Bears). For the Rams, Demarcus Robinson is questionable, although I’m not high on him tonight anyway.

Man Vs. Zone

As part of the continued evolution of Rule 76, particularly after the brutal Week 14, I’m attempting to build a tool to better analyze defenses tendencies to play man vs. zone and which pass catchers tend to benefit (or suffer) as a result.

For instance, the Rams (77%) and 49ers (69%) both play zone coverage above the League average.

Who tends to benefit from that? George Kittle and Cooper Kupp.

Who tends to not benefit? Puka Nacua and Demarcus Robinson

• George Kittle’s target % increases to 24.0% against zone coverage vs. 15.9% against man.

• Cooper Kupp increases to 33.1% from 28.9%.

• Puka Nacua decreases to 35.1% from 46.9%

• Demarcus Robinson decreases to 8.8% from 19.4%

These obviously aren’t gospel but it can help when needing to make a choice between two guys like Kupp and Nacua or Kittle and Jennings.

Deebo Squeaky Wheel

Recall last year, there were huge splits between Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, with Deebo being the zone guy and Aiyuk being the man guy. For whatever reason, Deebo has really had a down year while Aiyuk is out for the year. In their absence, both Juaun Jennings and George Kittle have stepped up immensely, and while Jennings’ splits are relatively consistent regardless of coverage, Kittle seems to be the new zone guy.

I’d also expect Deebo to assist in the run game tonight given the lack of depth and Guerendo’s sprained foot. To what extent or how effective? I have no idea.

Deebo did cause some diva drama after last week’s low usage (even though they won), so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Niners try to force feed him, but again, he just hasn’t been the same this year so I’ll pass on all of it.

Red Zone Numbers

This is where the Total gets interesting. It would be shocking if both teams weren’t able to move the ball consistently on offense, so the Total of 48.5 really comes down to TDs vs. field goals.

The Rams rank 13th in red zone to TD convergence at a 57% rate, but that has increased to 77% in the last three games. Meanwhile, the 49ers’ defense ranks 31 of 32 for allowing red zone trips to convert to TDs at a 72% clip (100% in the last three games).

On the other side, the 49ers’ offense is 22nd at 53% but 70% in the past three games. The Rams’ defense is 9th at 50%, consistent with the past three weeks.

…So it’s not overly obvious, but you’d think both teams should be able to score TDs. If anything, the Rams should have more success than the 49ers. If it wasn’t for the weather, I’d confidently be on the Over. Both teams need the win; both offenses have been trending up; and 48.5 seems pretty reachable, but the weather gives me some pause.

Overall, I think it’ll be a close game with a decent amount of scoring (hence the “short straddle”-esque parlay).

Corum Forum

This one is pretty straightforward. Corum was just added to DraftKings (not on Fanduel) at the time of writing and the number appeared pretty low to me. He’s been getting steady action the past couple weeks and the 49ers aren’t exactly mega run stoppers lately.

Plus, it’s a short week so Williams could probably use a series or two off. In Corum’s last two games, he has 8 attempts each with 42 and 34 rushing yards.

Take it to the bank and call me later.

No excuses, play like a champion.