Performance Summary

State Of The Union

Well that was humbling…

Week 14 was full of bad beats, near misses, and even some good bets that just went wrong, but it had more bad bets, too many reaches, and too many instances of trying to be too cute.

Too Many Bets

Overall, it was just too many bets. I had been steadily (and somewhat obliviously) increasing my weekly wager for the past 4 weeks and not realizing that at that level, a real bad week would be truly disastrous. Being down 40% on 10-20 units a lot different than on 40-50…

And to that effect, it had been since Week 10 that I’ve had a bad week, and since Week 5 that I’ve had a really bad week, so you could make an argument that I was “due”.

Getting Too Comfortable

I also think it’s easy to see how I grew too comfortable with my consistently decent performance on my 50-50 bets becoming a backstop for my longer-shot bets. If the longer-shot bets hit, it would instantly be a stellar week, but typically they didn’t, in which case it’s a breakeven week (give or take a couple units).

However, it’s important to realize those breakeven weeks are often on the cusp of extreme upside. Sometimes it’s only a matter of one more yard, catch, or point, and once you get close, it’s hard not to keep trying - particularly if there’s consistently buffer from those 50-50 bets and teasers.

That’s what’s been happening the past 4 weeks: solid performance being diluted by (an increasing set of) long-shot bets that would just miss. It’s a slippery slope and it’s easy to forget that the backstop can fall away at any point…

And that’s exactly what happened in Week 14. My 50-50 bets weren’t hitting while I was on my fourth consecutive week of stepping up my long-shot bets, chasing those big splashy wins.

What’s left is a whole lot of losses and some hard lessons learned:

Discipline Has Re-Entered The Chat

It’s been a while since I’ve had to check myself, but this is certainly cause.

We’re entering the fourth quarter of the regular season and it’s all starting to get really exciting. I have to do better at reminding myself that I don’t need to bet every game (or even have an opinion on them). It’s about picking my spots, and even if I’m wrong, the worst case is a moderate hit - unlike the Mike Tyson knockout punch I dealt myself this week.

…And this is actually a timely reminder given we have no more Bye weeks left in the season…big slates only from here on out.

Research Gets Exponentially Harder With Each Week

At this point in the season, your average fan has been able to watch most teams play at least once and probably multiple times. We’ve seen good teams play badly, bad teams play well, and every other possible outcome in between.

It’s actually hard to judge what comes next, and stats need to be digested in increasingly nuanced ways to account for key injuries, trades, coaching changes, and even momentum swings. It’s a lot to keep track of and makes “picking your spots” even more important.

Don’t Get Too Cute

Sometimes the simplest answer is the right one. If Team A is playing in a game with a high point total and I think they have an inherent passing advantage, just take Team A’s WR1. Don’t go fishing for WR4 who flashed three weeks before and might have a breakout game (looking at you Tre Tucker and KaVontae Turpin).

Alright, enough is enough - abridged game summaries and key takeaways below, but most importantly, we’re on to Week 15…

Teasers, Parlays, & Round Robins

See my Sunday Preview for more details.

Welp…none of these worked and they weren’t even close. That’s the sign of a bad week.

Packers vs Lions (TNF)

See my TNF Preview for more details.

Doing Too Much

This is a perfect example of doing too much. I should have stuck with my highest conviction bets which would have been Jayden Reed, the two parlays, and Jordan Love rushing.

If I did that, I would have been breakeven on my pre-game bets with downside stemming from a freak 0 receiving yard game from Jayden Reed - wildly unexpected but an easy pill to swallow.

Instead, I was down 3-4u on mostly high-risk bets. Fortunately I was once again successful in live-betting the Lions. It would have been shocking if they didn’t win this game and when I saw the screen flash at +118, I couldn’t help myself.

Plus, I pretty much called my shot with Gibbs in the TNF Preview - if the Lions go down, Gibbs gets receptions, and his prices never reflect it. I see this becoming a profitable angle during the postseason… We’ll see.

What happened to Jayden Reed? This is why you don’t bet on Packers props…

Raiders vs. Bucs

See my Sunday Preview for more details.

Call me crazy but I feel like the Raiders were the better team here - or at least good enough to cover. Aidan O’Connell was just awful and when he got hurt, Desmond Ridder wasn’t any better.

If the Raiders had an even halfway decent QB, I think they not only Cover, but maybe even win. It was closer than the box score shows.

Also Tre Tucker only had 2 receptions but he had 5 targets and I feel like any one of them would have tripped his Over. Pass deflections, errant throws, etc. UGH!

Panthers vs. Eagles

See my Sunday Preview for more details.

RUN THE BALL

Saquon gets home. My Gainwell angle only partially got home. But I did decide to go in on Saquon in the first quarter when he had a bit of a slower start, and that hit.

But this game was all about the Panthers, who honestly should have won as +650 dawgs. They have now gone the distance with the Eagles, Chiefs, and Bucs while beating the Giants and Saints in the past 5 weeks, and Bryce Young has been GOOD. There’s no shot anyone would have believed that 6+ weeks ago.

However, if you ask me, it never should have been this close. Kudos to Bryce and the Panthers, but what in the world were the Eagles doing on Offense? I just don’t understand why they weren’t running it on every single down. Saquon Barkley and the best rushing offensive line vs. the worst rushing defensive line…the Eagles averaged nearly 7 yards per carry throughout the game…why not just keep it going? Why on earth were they passing on nearly 40% of downs?

The Panthers controlled the ball for over 55% of the game. They ran 13 more offensive plays and outgained the Eagles in nearly all offensive metrics…except of course, rushing.

Falcons vs. Vikings

See my Sunday Preview for more details.

This looks like the lone bright spot in my ginormous betting slip from Week 14, but even this one was closer than it looked. The Falcons were shockingly in this game through the third quarter and we didn’t get a Kirk implosion until it was almost too late.

Also, people are actually talking about Sam Darnold for MVP? Excuse me?

Also, I think Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison might have read the newsletter where I innocently pointed out that Jalen Nailor had the most red zone TDs in the Vikings’ WR room. Jefferson went for 132 yards and 2 TDs while Addison went for 133 yards and 3 TDs.

Geez guys, we get it.

Bears vs. 49ers

See my Sunday Preview for more details.

319-4. That’s the 49ers’ total first half offense vs. the Bears’ first half total offense.

The Chicago Bears haven’t won an away game since 2021.

Ugh…I just don’t think I can do this anymore. Never bet on your own team folks, because they will just rip your heart out and stomp on it right in front of you.

They better back the truck up for Ben Johnson, Liam Coen, or apparently Kyle Shanahan is somehow in the mix. I don’t know…pass on the entire season. I can’t believe they’re on MNF next week.

#Embearassing

Chargers vs. Chiefs (SNF)

See my Sunday Preview for more details.

The Chiefs are now 12-1 but only 4-8-1 against the spread (ATS). It’s actually funny at this point how they keep pulling off these close games.

They really just doinked IN a game-winning field goal.

Doink is not supposed to be a positive term…take it from a Bears fan.

Bengals vs. Cowboys (MNF)

See my MNF Preview for more details.

Another example of doing too much. The Over was a fair loss - if not for some funky turnover variance, that should have hit. Although it also highlights the importance of betting early. This game actually hit the Over on the initial line but was Under the closing line.

But why am I trying to make KaVontae Turpin happen when it was so clearly a CeeDee Lamb game? And why was I afraid of Ja’Marr Chase’s line? He finished with 177 yards…that’s more than double…

Super Touchdown Fun Time!

No excuses, play like a champion.