It’s time for the moment of truth. High conviction, long odds parlays and aggressive lookaheads all placed over a week ago…the Lions have done their part, and now it’s time for the Eagles and Bears to come through.

I could lose every other bet this week and be in the red on the week, but if my early calls on the Lions, Eagles, and Bears come through successfully, I’ll sleep soundly tonight.

It’s not always about the money. In fact, if you’re reading this, you’re probably an extremely casual bettor, in which case it really shouldn’t be about the money.

It’s about being right. It’s that elusive feeling of being smarter than the experts; smarter than your friends; and smarter than every doofus on the internet. You were there first. You got it right. You knew what you were talking about when nobody else did.

It’s the secret sauce. It’s why we come back to the window after a losing week. And it’s why the entire existence of this newsletter hangs in the balance…just kidding, but like I really want to be able to say I was right here.

Bring it on.

Previous Bets

Lookaheads, Intuition, Whatever You Want To Call It

I’ve already talked about these in prior posts. The Lions showed up on Thursday Night, and although the total bet slip didn’t go all that well, this was the most important component.

Now it’s up to the Eagles and my Bears, both of which are strongly supported by The Spreadsheet, but both of which I’m extremely nervous about. The Eagles’ spot is too obvious against a Panthers team that’s been playing much better the past 3-4 weeks.

And the Bears…well we all know how that’s gone recently…

Teasers & Round Robins

You could call these my favorite bets of the week (as well as the Vikings which is below but I’ve heard don’t tease through the zero so I’m not).

It’s pretty simple: the Raiders, Jags, and Raiders/Bucs Over all came from The Spreadsheet. These spreads are probably too big as it is, but adding an extra 7 points makes me feel pretty comfortable.

As for the Browns, well it’s just the Tomlin formula I’ve been riding for the past couple of weeks. Ride as a dawg, fade as a fave. No matter how ugly it may be, just close your eyes and do it.

Raiders vs. Bucs

Rest Rules

Let’s talk a little more about this game. The Raiders have a significant rest advantage over the Bucs, which is something that I tend to put more and more weight in as the season wares on.

The Bucs just played a grueling OT game against the Panthers in which Baker Mayfield and Bucky Irving were banged up. As much as I love Baker, this feels like a sleepy letdown spot. Plus, The Spreadsheet is all over the Raiders.

I don’t love trusting Aidan O’Connell, but his numbers against the spread (ATS) actually aren’t too bad. The Bucs haven’t really been able to hold many teams defensively and it feels like the Raiders may be finding something with Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers. Mix in a little Tre Tucker (Bet the Board’s best prop bet of the week) and I expect O’Connell to sling it around a bit today.

This should be a fun game to watch. Old rivalries, high variance players, etc.

Panthers vs. Eagles

Rudimentary Or Genius?

Remember when I said they couldn’t make Saquon Barkley’s line high enough? Well, they totally went there. I saw it open in the 105-108 range and pretty quickly move up to the 110-115 range (depending on the book).

Look, he’ll probably hit that, but am I really going to bet a guy to get 100+ yards at minus money?!? Saquon is awesome but that’s crazy town. I’ll pass and take Gainwell instead.

Personally, I think the Panthers actually make this more of a game than expected (which probably works against me here), but in the case of a blowout, it doesn’t make sense to leave Saquon in there.

Even if it’s close, teams have to start thinking postseason now, and if you’re the Eagles, you NEED Saquon. He’s literally an MVP frontrunner…

Gainwell is more than serviceable behind the Philly O-line. This number should only take a few attempts. Let Kenny have some fun too.

Falcons vs. Vikings

Kirk Cousins Revenge Game Implosion

There’s a lot to talk about here. Kirk Cousins returning to Minnesota (revenge game); coaching familiarity; Cousins injury rumors, etc.

I think there’s one thing that matters and that’s Kirk Cousins against pressure. It’s not good and the Vikings can dial it up as well as anyone in the league. I think we’re going to see a lot of Kirk Cousins with his hands over his helmet ear holes, check downs, and sacks.

I would take Cousins’ Under passing yards, but I’m scared of garbage time. He can still lead a two minute drill like the best of ‘em, so yards are not the go to for me here.

Meanwhile, the Falcons’ defense can’t stop a nose bleed. With the exception of last weekend in a weird Chargers game, the Falcons haven’t held a team to 20 points since Week 1 against the Justin Fields Steelers.

It’s not like a I have a ton of faith in Sam Darnold, but think about his weapons here, and with Cousins likely struggling on offense, Darnold should have a plethora of opportunities.

You like that, Kirk?

Chargers vs. Chiefs (SNF)

Travis Kelce De-flation?

So I used to not bet on Travis Kelce because I thought his lines were routinely inflated given his meteoric rise in popularity; however, that euphoria seems to have faded this year. He had a slow start and his lines haven’t recovered since - even though ever since Rashee Rice ripped up his knee, Kelce has pretty much been back.

If you give me his line in the mid-50s on 5-6 receptions in a divisional prime time game, I’m going to take it every time. I’m not an expert, but I would have expected his line to be in the 62-68 range with roughly even TD odds.

I don’t know - it just doesn’t seem right - he was over these numbers in the first half last week. Chargers play two-high zone - Kelce will just sit down like 50 times.

Also, remember he’s 1 TD shy of the Chief’s franchise record…

As for the game, there’s a golden rule out there to not bet the Chiefs as more than 3-point favorites, but I just don’t think I see it here with the Chargers. The only thing they’ve been able to do is throw it to Ladd McConkey and the dude is literally falling apart. He’s expected to play tonight, but how much longer can he just put a bandage on it and go play?

You have to beat the Chiefs through the air, and I just don’t think the Chargers can do it with one guy who is severely banged up…

Depending on how the day goes, I might come back to this game later in the day. I’m not on Dicker yet. Noah Gray has been hot. Mahomes rushing is interesting (this game matters). And honestly, some Chiefs alt spreads could be interesting. They’ve kept most games close this year regardless of opponent, but I feel like this could sneaky be a domination station game.

If that’s not the case, it’s also a possible Live bet situation. If the Chiefs go down at any point…break out the hammer.

Super Touchdown Fun Time!

It worked last time, let’s go for something even bigger.

It appears the peoples are on Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, but his price is still over +200 so might as well keep it rolling and see what happens.

Did you know Jalen Nailor leads the Vikings WR group in TDs? Interesting…

No excuses, play like a champion.