How is it Week 14 already? It’s time for Fantasy Football Playoffs; it’s time for the holidays; it’s the last week of Byes; and teams are getting ready to make their final regular season playoff push.

We know who most of the teams are at this point. Now it’s just a matter of determining who will rise to the occasion and who will crumble when it matters most?

The Lions and the Packers are a combined 20-4. Both teams have deep playoff aspirations and expectations. Both teams were there last year, and both ultimately fell short.

And with both teams having played on Thursday last week for Thanksgiving, this is a rare “normal” rest matchup for TNF, and definitely one of the best ones of the year.

Puns aside, there’s actually a lot to unpack here…let’s dive in.

Packers vs Lions

This Game Matters

The NFC North is undoubtedly the best division in football. The Packers are 9-3 and they’re in third place, and three of their remaining five games are against teams that are technically ahead of them in the playoff rankings.

The Lions are in first place in the Division and Conference but the Eagles are hot on their tail for the #1 seed and they’re showing no signs of slowing down.

Home field advantage has generally eroded in today’s NFL but Lions fans are well aware of their (Jared Goff’s) home/away splits, and particularly indoor/outdoor splits. Having the road to the Super Bowl go through Detroit (dome) instead of Philly would be incredibly important for the Lions, and honestly could be the difference in making it to New Orleans or once again falling short…

Needless to say, this game matters…a lot. Both teams are equally rested having both played a week ago on Thanksgiving; however, the Lions are significantly more banged up.

Lions Injuries

We know the Lions are winning machines and generally Covering machines, often times in spite of key injuries, but in the last two weeks, that list has grown to a concerning level.

See the Timeline here, but it’s mostly defense and mostly the Front Seven. We all saw what the Bears did in the second half of the first Thanksgiving game once these guys started to go down. Now you have a better coach, with more time, in a more consistent offense…all signs point to this being a Packers’ spot, and that’s why the line as moved in their favor, to as far as +3 at some books.

Packers Props

For the same reason, Packers player props have also inched upward, but players who operate in the middle of the field (Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft) have seen drastic (+10%) movement in their receiving yards prop lines.

The Lions were already generally weak against the slot (Reed went for 113 last time they played in Week 9), but with extensive Front Seven injuries, there’s clearly an expectation for that to be even more pronounced in this game.

Notice I’m still betting on Reed despite being extremely late to the party and buying at a “bad” price. Anyone who does the same leading up to the game should also be aware of that fact…

Also, the Packers are so hard to bet player props because they spread the ball around like crazy. The smarter approach is probably Jordan Love passing yards. That may be an angle for Live bets…

Also, here’s a great writeup on Kraft from a non-mainstream outlet, much of which also applies to Reed.

Offense Is The Best Defense?

Who am I to get in the heads of two of the best coaches in the league. BUT, if I had to guess, I’d say that given the Lions’ general domination on Offense and Matt LaFleur’s likely ability to expose Detroit’s defensive vulnerabilities, both offenses could be striving for long, methodical drives as a way to of protect their own defenses.

That’s kind of inception-y but I’d expect both teams to diligently attempt to establish their run games, likely with moderate success, but someone will end up striking first or hitting an explosive.

In my mind, that’ll be the push of an offensive snowball down a very long hill that’ll continue to gain more and more momentum as the game wears on.

So Why Not Bet The Over?

51.5 is high. And even if I’m right on that whole snowball thing, I’m not sure when it starts rolling down the hill. It might not happen until the final two minutes of the first half. After all, both teams have good enough run games to make that whole “keep the offense on the field for as long as possible” strategy viable.

For that reason, I’m passing on the pre-game Over bet, but I do think it’ll be a close game, above average in scoring, and feature Jordan Love to Jayden Reed (hence the two 2u parlays). I’m not a parlay guy, but these feel good.

And I may be looking for opportunities to Live bet both the Over and the Lions at a “better” number if my spidey senses start tingling.

Remaining Props

• Jordan Love Rushing / TD: See “This Game Matters”. Love doesn’t run much, but he’s not Kirk Cousins either. Remember, the Lions’ middle of the field is all banged up and potentially incohesive. Meanwhile, the Lions blitz at a relentless rate, and Love is actually [probably] the healthiest he’s been all year. 5.5 rushing yards is so low and +700 for a TD is really juicy. Both worth a swing to me. It only takes one…

• Josh Jacobs Receiving: This is really an extension of the Jayden Reed rationale without also paying a premium for Tucker Kraft. IF the middle of the field is “weaker” for the Lions but they’re still blitzing their little butts off, then I could see Jacobs available for some short Angle routes that can easily add up to 20+.

• David Montgomery Receiving: He’s Over this in the past 5 so this line is puzzling. The reason has to be Gibbs, which I’ve previously pointed out tends to play more in “this game matters” scenarios, but I’ll still take a shot here because I like Monty. However, if the Lions go down, look to Live bet Gibbs receiving yards…

TNF Fun Bets

It is TNF after all. These aren’t necessarily “smart” bets, but they’re added fun for what should already be a pretty fun game.

• First TD: This is always fun to root for. It’ll probably be a running back, but that’s not fun, and the purpose of this is fun. So how about some Tight Ends, backup Tight Ends, and an “immobile” QB? I’ve been waiting to hit Brock Wright all year. Let tonight be the night!

• First Drive Reception: This is SUCH a sucker bet, which is why Fanduel is offering a profit boost on it. But I’m in; I’m the sucker. One thing we know about the Lions is David Montgomery ALWAYS starts the games. He is the only one that I’m confident will be on the field and used in a “conservative” opening game script. Once again, this is an irresponsible loser bet, but it’s fun. Let’s go, Monty!

Some Things Are Bigger Than TNF

Exactly. Because I have the Lions tied into some rare high conviction long odds parlays for the rest of this weekend, including the long-awaited return of “3 Over 30”.

Stay tuned for the Week 14 Sunday Preview, but this is what I already have going, some of which is dependent on the Lions so I’m compelled to share now.

No excuses, play like a champion.