Well, unless I hit every bet tonight, Week 14 will go down in history as my worst week of the year. As it stands, season-long gains have been entirely wiped clean.

Now, I’ve been bailed out on MNF before (but I’ve also gotten burned). This bet slip is admittedly chase-y to see if I can put a dent in the horrific losses from this weekend. It’s worth a shot…

Stay tuned for the full Week 14 recap to discuss what exactly went wrong, but to put it simply, it was pretty much everything.

Also tonight is The Simpsons Funday Football game. I’m not really sure what that means for me or any of you, but I feel compelled to say something about it. So there you go.

Bengals vs. Cowboys

The Breakdown: Will The Bengals Finally Win? Will The Cowboys Actually Show Up?

The Bengals are only 1-4 in their last 5 despite averaging +31 points per game. Within that, they’ve scored 99 points in their last three losses. Joe Burrow has been lights out; Tee Higgins is back; but the defense is just non-existent.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys lost their first three games with Cooper Rush but have won their last two as the defense continues to get healthier.

To me, this game is all about the Cowboys’ offense. You have to think Burrow and the Bengals’ offense will continue to shine, but will they keep pushing if the Cowboys don’t put up a fight?

At first glance, betting on Cooper Rush doesn’t sound enticing (even via the Over). Plus, we’ve seen players on bottom-half-quality teams exhibit more and more “quit” as the season wares on, but 1) the Cowboys showed up on Thanksgiving, and 2) the Bengals’ defense is more than susceptible.

Do we assume because the Cowboys tried on Thanksgiving that they’ll try again in another prime time game? Or was that simply the Thanksgiving game in Dallas effect?

I’m inclined to think they do show up, and while I have a hard time trusting Cooper Rush, I have more faith in the Bengals’ defense continuing to look like a bunch of 5-year olds learning how to play soccer. Ouch.

What Does The Spreadsheet Say?

As for The Spreadsheet, neither team has a solid advantage. If anything, the Cowboys should be able to run, but Dowdle’s line is relatively high (mid-60s) and in the event of a trailing game script, it’s not something I want to play.

In fact, The Spreadsheet actually screams the Under, but 1) I know to ignore it when it comes to the Bengals given the talent of their QB and skill players, 2) MNF Overs are 12-4 so far this year (although this line opened at 45-46 so again, not a great price), and 3) The Spreadsheet has been horribly wrong this week so consider it in Timeout.

Joe Cool

As for Joe Burrow, in his last three games, he’s had 428, 356, and 309 passing yards and 4, 3, and 3 TD passes. The dude is straight slingin’ it and has no W’s to show for it. You have to think the Bengals can pull this one out, but anything is possible given how this season is gone.

Honestly, for my bet slip, I think I’m rooting for the Cowboys to put up a fight. If they don’t show up, the Bengals could be content with a 20-3 lead, which would tank just about everything in play tonight.

If the Cowboys can respond, it would be shocking if Burrow doesn’t have another great night. As for the receivers, there are too many weapons to choose from. You could make an argument for Chase, Higgins, Gesicki, Brown, and even Iosivas. I tend to think tonight is a Tee Higgins night, but it’s such a crap shoot that I’m just sticking with Joey B.

Red Zone → TD Convergence

This late in the season, I think it’s fair to rely on some TD-convergence statistics for teams in red zone situations. The Bengals have the second highest TD-success rate in the league (only behind the Ravens). In other words, they’re scoring more than 70% of the time when inside the 20 yard line.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys’ defense is the worst in the league with respect to giving up TDs in the red zone. In other words, they allow a TD nearly 80% of the time the opposing offense enters the red zone.

Put those together and it just screams Bengals’ touchdowns, right? Chase Brown, Ja’Maar Chase, and even Tee Higgins are priced accordingly, but the other guys (Gesicki, Iosivas, and even Tanner Hudson and Drew Sample) seem to have a bit more value.

Look, if the Bengals might score 4+ TDs, I’d rather take a shot at Hudson and Sample at +10-1 odds than Ja’Maar Chase at minus money. That attitude translates to a loss more times than not, but I’m fine with the implications. Both have decent usage; both have red zone targets; and both have TDs already this year.

On the other side of the ball, the Bengals’ defense is 29 out of 32 on red zone convergence, behind Dallas and San Francisco; however, the Cowboys’ offense is only 31 out of 32 (only converting red zone trips to TDs at a ~44% rate, and for whatever reason, that number is even lower <30% at home).

So, what gives? In order for these bets to hit, I need the Cowboys’ offense to play above their recent metrics and hold the Bengals’ defense true to form. If it’s the other way around, I’m worried all offensive Overs are in jeopardy, but at least the Brandon Aubrey bet would hit (as sort of a natural hedge if they have to settle for field goals). Uncomfortable Cameron Dicker gif just because kickers?

KaVontae Turpin

He’s been hot/cold and with Brandin Cooks back, his prospects are lower. However, I can’t ignore the intentional scheming for him last week. He didn’t get in the end zone, but he crushed his yardage prop.

You could also put stock in the idea that he has better rapport with Cooper Rush than the other leading pass catchers (given his place on the depth chart and what that means for practice reps).

You could also put stock in the idea that he has more to prove than other pass catchers who may or may not have the occasional flare for the dramatics. Rhymes with “Gigi Ram”.

You could say I’m reaching on this ladder and TD bet as a last ditch effort to counterbalance this horrible horrible Week 14. Well, you’d be correct. I’ve been bailed out on MNF before - it’s worth a shot.

No excuses, play like a champion.