Week 13 was both a marathon and a rollercoaster. I bet on 10 different games, which is 20/32 teams, and contemplated a few more.

The Thanksgiving games feel like they were months ago, and good riddance because they really didn’t go that well.

Sunday was my day, thanks in part to the Super Touchdown Fun Time finally working out and a near clean sweep on the 49ers/Bills game.

And then there was MNF between the Browns and Broncos, which despite being a thrilling game, was an excellent pass by me because my near-bets would have netted out to a slight loss.

All-in, I was up 2.2u, or 4.4% return in Week 13, adding to my cumulative total of +20.1u, or 5.1% return.

Week 14 has some promising matchups, and it’s the last week of Bye’s, but first, let’s recap Week 13 in full…

Bears vs. Lions

See my Previous Thoughts for more details.

I Don’t Want To Talk About It

I’m just curious if the Bears have filed for any patents because they keep inventing new ways to lose in heartbreaking fashion and destroy the hopes and dreams of their fanbase.

At least the bad man is gone. It’s not enough, but it’s a start. Maybe the Bears will learn their lesson and actually open their checkbooks for a good coach, but I doubt it. They’ll just hire another no-name defensive coordinator from a middling defensive team.

It’s already been interesting to observe the inner power struggle between GM Ryan Poles and President Kevin Warren. It’ll be a very interesting offseason for us Bears fans and I can’t say I’m optimistic.

However, on the immediate horizon, I’m fully expecting a “dead cat bounce” game against the 49ers. I’ve talked about it in the past couple newsletters, but I’m happily sitting on a Bears +5.5 ticket while the line has moved to 3.5 after the 49ers embarrassed themselves on MNF (more below). Stay tuned, but I have a lot at stake on the Bears next week.

Lions Covering Winning Machine

The Lions straight up embarrassed the Bears in the first half of this game. Gibbs and Montgomery cashed in like the first 30 seconds of the game. I’m not sure how they weren’t up by 40+ at halftime, but they weren’t and they left the door open for the Bears who quietly snuck in like they were about to catch Goldilocks eating all their soup.

If it wasn’t for the Eberflus clock management fiasco, This game likely would have went to overtime. Although, I think we all know how that would have ended so none of this matters, but still, it got Eberflus fired…

Giants vs. Cowboys

See my Previous Thoughts for more details.

But wait, I thought this game was a pass because it was ew and during turkey time?!?

Well, it was, but everyone loves a good Live bet right before you have to turn the game off for dinner, right?

Theo Johnson ended with 5 receptions for 54 yards, which honestly makes that live call on the 19.5 look pretty good.

Turpin didn’t get home, but he did have 4 receptions for 53 yards, including 2 red zone targets. +850 seemed too high and looking back, there’s no buyer’s remorse there.

Dolphins vs. Packers

See my Previous Thoughts for more details.

Tua/Dolphins In The Cold

I got scared off again. This one was as easy as I thought it was and I just overthought it. Jonnu Smith was absolutely on the money (10 receptions on 11 targets for 113 yards) but Mostert was a miss. He’s only had 5 attempts for 3 total yards since Week 9 and now all of a sudden he gets 5 attempts in one game?!? He only had 19 yards but it would have been a lot more if not for a penalty. That one leaves a sour taste in my mouth.

Thanksgiving Super Touchdown Fun Time!

See my Previous Thoughts for more details.

Roschon Johnson Rant

This belongs in the Bears game section, but can we talk about how Roschon Johnson was injured on the opening (defensive) kickoff and Fanduel didn’t void his bets? The dude didn’t take a single offensive snap and all his bets were losers? That doesn’t seem right to me and cost me a couple units.

Raiders vs. Chiefs (Forgotten Game 1/2)

As I alluded in my MNF preview, there were two games that I accidentally didn’t include in my writeups. This one was more of a function of the Holiday and other commitments whereas the Bucs/Panthers was just total oversight. What are you gonna do?

Primetime = Kelce

There wasn’t much analytics behind this one. Chiefs playing in primetime in a divisional matchup that seems to always give them trouble…push the Travis Kelce button.

Plus, he’s one TD reception shy of breaking the Chiefs’ franchise record currently held by Tony Gonzalez (76), so I figured Andy Reid and/or the refs would be sure to make that happen on a nationally televised home game.

Well, the Chiefs definitely pushed the Travis Kelce button in the first half…Kelce ended the first half with 6 catches for 63 yards but only caught one pass for 5 yards in the second half.

So while he did get there on the yards, he somehow stumbled on the receptions ladder, and he never caught that TD.

I also was dangerously close to hammering a parlay with Brock Bowers for 70+ each, which he got, but Kelce being 2 yards shy would have sent me into a weekend spiral.

Stay tuned, the Chiefs play another prime time divisional game in Week 14. If Kelce’s yardage and TD prices are anywhere near these, consider them hammered again.

Chargers vs. Falcons

See my Previous Thoughts for more details.

Dicker The Kicker: Part Two

Is Cameron Dicker the new Brock Purdy rushing yards bet? I mean the dude is automatic and the Chargers just refuse to score touchdowns. Plus, Purdy is hurt so maybe we ride Dicker (haha).

Quitting The Chargers Props

Otherwise, I think I’m done with Chargers player props for a while. I feel like all I ever see is deep shots to Palmer but none of my bets ever hit, so I have to be done. I just can’t get this one right.

“Give it two weeks, he’ll be back” - literally anyone

Steelers vs. Bengals

See my Previous Thoughts for more details.

Stick To The Formula

Nailed it. I can’t explain it, but it just works. Tomlin as a dawg = cash. Tomlin as a favorite = not cash.

And what do you know, they are 6.5 point favorites this week against the Browns coming off a tough loss. Do I let it ride against the Steelers?!?

Colts vs. Patriots

See my Previous Thoughts for more details.

“What Have I Done?”

Yeah, I mean I called myself out on this one. I got too excited by the spreadsheet early in the week and blasted 2u on this Colts team that I can’t quite seem to quit.

They ended up coming back with a late-game TD pass to my boi, Alec Pierce (see Super Touchdown Fun Time below), but instead of kicking the PAT to tie the game, go to overtime, and potentially cover this 2.5 spread, they decided to go for 2, which for me, regardless of the outcome meant this bet was instantly dead. The Colts pulled it off, but again, it didn’t matter to me.

Anthony Richardson only completed 12 passes. Two of them went to Pierce, but they were only 13 and 3 yards, respectively - so those bets didn’t cash, but it wasn’t for lack of trying. Pierce had 6 targets with an average depth of target (ADOT) of 21.3 yards, so basically it almost happened.

Maybe one of these days I’ll stop betting on the Colts. Well would you look at that, they have a Week 14 Bye. Now that’s called willpower.

Rams vs. Saints

See my Previous Thoughts for more details.

“Puka, Or Trap?”

How about neither? It wasn’t a trap, but it also wasn’t a Puka game. It really wasn’t an anyone game but I guess Kyren Williams and Alvin Kamara, who each finished with 100+ rushing yards.

This game wasn’t fun. The Saints are frauds but they’re not pushovers. I don’t know what the Rams are anymore.

Bucs vs. Panthers (Forgotten Game 2/2)

Super my bad for forgetting to put this into the preview, and it ended up being a great game with great wins.

Bucky Irving absolutely destroyed it with equal parts him being awesome and the Panthers’ inability to stop the run. Who’s on deck for them? The Eagles…they can’t make Saquon’s line high enough…

The Over, however, was an absolute SWEAT. These teams went to OT tied 23-23, or 46 total points for the numbers-challenged readers on there. That’s 0.5 points shy of the Over, which you think would be an auto win once they went to OT, but it wasn’t and I was genuinely scared this game would end in a tie.

Thankfully it didn’t. Baker Mayfield played through injuries. Bryce Young almost threw for 300 yards (again). Mike Evans AND Adam Thielen had great days with insane catches. This was a game worth watching even without the bets.

49ers vs. Bills

See my Previous Thoughts for more details.

Called My Shot…Halfway There

I called my shot against the 49ers here, and while I was very right, the shot was two pronged, including this coming matchup against my Bears.

Again, I like the Niners, but they are just so injured. Their reputation and star power still carry weight, but it’s just not their year. Give me the Bears by a billion in Week 14. Surely they can’t disappoint me.

Also - sad the Brock Purdy rushing run is over. Week 13 is an impressive distance to break the streak. Well done, Brock.

Super Touchdown Fun Time!

See my Previous Thoughts for more details.

Well how about that?!? We finally got ourselves a winner here! The parlays didn’t hit but the Round Robin’s did, which ended up being a net +3.0 unit swing on the week.

No excuses, play like a champion.