Firstly, a happy Thanksgiving to all of you and your families. ‘Tis a glorious day for food, family, and football.

Overall, Thanksgiving is a day for betting the trends, and the trends suggest betting the favorites with the notable exception of the Cowboys. Here are some good ones courtesy of the Action Network:

• In the last 20 years, favorites are 48-9 straight up (SU) and 38-19 against the spread (ATS). That’s a 67% hit rate with a respectable sample size.

• Long favorites (7+ points) are 29-5 ATS on Thanksgiving since 1990, while even longer favorites (10+ points) are 9-0 ATS since 2005. In this case, that’s the Lions, but Dan Campbell and Jared Goff are 0-3 straight up together on Thanksgiving.

• The Cowboys are 2-11 ATS since 2011, including last year’s Cover against the Commanders. They haven’t covered in back-to-back Thanksgivings since 2008 with Tony Romo.

• The Dolphins are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS with Tua in games below 40 degrees. They are 11-28 SU including 0-9 in their last 9 in franchise history in games below freezing. It’ll be in the 20s tonight in Green Bay.

Let’s dive into each one!

Bears vs. Lions

Lions Covering Machine

The Lions Cover relentlessly - as do the favorites on Thanksgiving, and particularly heavy favorites. However, Dan Campbell and Jared Goff haven’t been successful in this spot before (albeit with a significantly smaller sample size).

If anything, I’m choosing to interpret that latter point as a piece of motivation for the Lions to get up for this game. Campbell is an excellent coach who seems to be able to avoid the “stinker game” at an insanely high clip.

The Bears have played the Lions well in recent memory, but the Lions’ strength (power running the ball down opposing defenses’ throats) is the achilles heel for the Bears. So while I’m hoping for the best, I’m certainly expecting the worse. I won’t put my money on an anti-Bears spread, but I won’t hesitate to bet Lions props.

Two Headed Monster

David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs have to be the best backfield duo in the League, right? Montgomery’s numbers haven’t been stellar lately and he’s on the injury report, so I’m keeping it light there (although this is a revenge spot for him).

Meanwhile, Gibbs continues to separate himself as one of the most special players in the league. He’s Over this number in all but a few games this year, and in those games, he was actually pretty close. The Bears have surrendered this number to 8 running backs this year, including 5 above 90 yards and 3 above 100 yards. It’s chalky (common) but I’ll roll the dice.

Run Caleb, Run!

I alluded to it in the Week 12 Recap, but the Lions don’t tend to defend mobile QBs too well. I (humbly) crushed it last week with Anthony Richardson, so I’m running it back this week with Caleb, who has been running more and more under the new offensive regime. These were my first bets of the week.

Roschon Johnson Misprice

Roschon Johnson TD continues to be mispriced. He is their short yardage and goal line back. The Lions are good, but the Bears should be able to score…right?

+270 is simply too low. It worked last week - let’s hope it works again today.

Honorable Mentions

• Jameson Williams O 25.5 longest reception

• Cole Kmet O 31.5 rec yds

• D.J. Moore 6+ receptions at plus money

Giants vs. Cowboys

Pass The Potatoes

No, that empty bet slip is not an error. I can’t find a single thing I like about this game. Theoretically, both teams should be able to run, but nobody’s line sticks out to me.

If anything, I’d just ride with CeeDee Lamb because he’s the obvious spot in prime time on this sacred Dallas Cowboys holiday, but I just can’t trust Cooper Rush.

As for the Giants, there were some nerve-wracking things leaking from their locker room this week that make me worried the team has quit.

Do I ride with Malik Nabers in prime time and the force-feed-thesis in order to make him happy? Do I ride with the spreadsheet that once again suggests Brian Tracy Jr. rushing yards, but he burned me last week and he fumbled again so he could be in the doghouse? It happened to Raheem Mostert in Miami… see below.

Pass - this game is in the turkey window anyway.

Dolphins vs. Packers

Tua/Dolphins In The Cold

It’s an easy and logical trend to get behind but of course, Bet the Board (my most respected podcast) comes out on the Dolphins. They make the case that some of those bad ATS stats in below freezing conditions were simply against superior teams like the Bills and Chiefs - so it’s a loaded stat.

Ugh - Packers at home in the cold against a tropical team on a day in which the favorites tend to win…it sounds so obvious, but is it too obvious? I don’t know…if the number moves to 3 at a decent price, I may pull the trigger on the Packers later in the day. As of now, I’m holding off.

Jonnu Smith New WR1?

Last time I used a tongue in cheek title like this for a tight end, it did NOT go well (Gesicki).

But Jonnu Smith has continued to emerge as a solid/respectable target for Tua as the Dolphins offense continues to shift from big play explosives to smaller dink and dunk methodical drives.

Tua’s average depth of target (ADOT) is below 6 yards since coming back from injury (vs. 10.1 yards in 2022 and 8.1 yards in 2023). We’re talking nearly 50% reduction in two years - that’s a massive shift in game plan, and Jonnu Smith has been a beneficiary of that.

He’s Over his receiving yards line in each of his last 4 games and 6 out of his last 7. His receiving yards line is now the highest it’s ever been, but you know me, I see that as evidence I’m on the right track here. #confirmationbias

Hold The Mustard

Once again, and I can’t believe I ever got off this train, I am fading Raheem Mostert (or “Mustard” as my dear wife refers to him). Since his second crippling fumble in Week 9 (following one in Week 7), Mostert only has 5 rushing attempts for a total of 3 yards.

Jaylen Wright has stepped into those RB2 shoes and Mustard has now become more of a 3rd down passing back. DraftKings doesn’t even have numbers for him so I think this might end up being the last time anyone will be able to go Under here.

Honorable Mentions

• Emanuel Wilson rushing props - I don’t have them where I shop but I’ll continue to look throughout the day. Aaron Jones is just days off of a 26-attempt game in which he momentarily left the game for cramps. This game will be freezing, so I could see a little more sharing of the backfield today.

Super Touchdown Fun Time!

No excuses, play like a champion.