I hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving with their families. As it turns out, blindly betting the favorites would not have been a profitable strategy (if you count the Black Friday game). The Chiefs once again escaped a close one; The Packers easily handled the Dolphins; the Cowboys won and covered for the second year in a row (???); and the Bears found another way to lose in heartbreaking fashion. Much more on them below and to come in the recap.

For the Week 13 Sunday slate, I’m largely on the Steelers (3+ dawgs in AFC North matchup, so duh), Colts (hate this, don’t know why I’m on it), Rams (Saints are frauds), and Bills (I think they will embarrass the 49ers tonight). I also wanted to be on the Eagles but couldn’t get there; although I’m very excited to watch that game.

Let’s dive into Week 13!

Chargers vs. Falcons

Dicker The Kicker: Part Two

Since it worked so well last time, I’m headed back to the window for the same reason: I believe the Chargers will be able to consistently move the ball against the Falcons, but I don’t trust them to consistently close it out in the red zone. That means disappointing field goals.

You know I have to put this in here again…

Palmer Revenge

Even though my little 3-way receiver longest catch bet didn’t really work out last time, it should have. Once again, if Quentin Johnston did the one thing his job requires him to do (catch the ball) and if the Ravens weren’t assaulting Josh Palmer down field, it would have hit.

And while that 3-way bet was more of a play against the Ravens’ defense, I saw enough deep ball attempts to know Palmer is a good bet when Herbert has time to throw. Well, the Falcons don’t generate any pass rush, so Herbert should have the time today. As long as the Falcons don’t interfere with Palmer 100 times like the Ravens did, this should get home.

Rest Mismatch

The spreadsheet approves and actually suggests the Chargers should be one of the higher scoring teams today - but this is a horrible rest advantage game.

The Chargers are coming off three hard-fought games, including the HarBowl less than a week ago, and are now traveling across the country to play the Falcons who are coming off their Bye.

You have to think the Chargers are a little banged up and feeling tired at this point, so the Falcons could see some success today as well. They just had a couple too many stinkers before the Bye for me to dive in on them. Instead, I’ll take the big body receiver who might be able to bully a tired secondary.

Steelers vs. Bengals

Stick To The Formula

Isn’t this what the Steelers do? They won and covered as dawgs against the Commanders, and again against the Ravens, but then when they were favored by 3.5 points against the Browns, they lost. Now they’re 3-point dawgs again against another AFC North rival.

I don’t care about anything else - it doesn’t matter who’s playing QB for the Steelers or what kind of injuries there are (outside of TJ Watt). As long as Watt is playing and the Steelers are 3-point underdogs, take them every time.

It might be ugly, but this is what Tomlin does.

Colts vs. Patriots

What Have I Done?

Let’s get this out of the way - I have no idea why I bet 2u on this… the spreadsheet suggests the Colts have a major advantage in the trenches so I put this bet in right away on Tuesday. However, it wasn’t until later in the week that I realized the extent of the Colts’ injuries…

Not good. Plus, the Colts are traveling and they just played the Lions?!? Who am I to think I can go against the kneecap biting trend (teams have been losing and failing to cover at a remarkable rate the week after playing the extremely physical Detroit Lions)?!?

Do I really trust Anthony Richardson to have a stellar passing game without his best receiver? NO, absolutely not. But I can’t cash out because then the Colts will undoubtedly crush the Patriots. So I have no choice but to ride…

All that said, I do believe Richardson will connect with Pierce on at least one deep ball. He may only have 10 completions, but one of them always seems to be a deep one to Pierce, particularly without Downs in the lineup and a not so scary Patriots pass rush.

Rams vs. Saints

Puka, Or Trap?

This feels like equal parts trap game and Puka Nacua game. I can’t totally determine which one, or both, or none, but I’m going with Puka and not a trap.

I don’t believe in the Saints; I never have; and I don’t think I ever will this season. Yes, the Eagles just dismantled the Rams rush defense and the Saints can run, but Taysom Hill + Alvin Kamara does not equal Saquon Barkley with the Eagles’ offensive line (in my opinion). It’s still a scary duo, but Taysom Hill already had his Taysom Hill game. Surely he can’t go for two in a row and surely the Rams can’t let the open wound fester for two weeks in a row either?

Give me Puka - he’s over this line in all games in which he’s healthy and hasn’t been ejected, so as long as he doesn’t get hurt or try to punch anyone else in their helmet, we should be good. Still can’t get over how dumb that was…

49ers vs. Bills

49ers Tank Job

I’m calling my shot here. The 49ers have lost their last two games and I think they will lose their next two and maybe even three.

I like the 49ers; if you’ve followed this year, you know I LOVE George Kittle props and Brock Purdy rushing yards. Those two guys are collectively a huge reason why I’m still in positive territory on the year.

But even if their props hit, that doesn’t mean they’re winning (or covering) games. In fact, I’d argue the Kittle/Purdy props have been more successful due to the fact that the 49ers haven’t been as dominant (lower numbers, better prices).

So here we are again - a severely injured 49ers team going against a scary Bills team who is coming off their Bye, getting healthier on defense, and playing at home in prime time.

Trent Williams is out; Nick Bosa is out; Brandon Aiyuk is on IR; Purdy is Questionable with a lingering shoulder injury; and a few others. Plus, the Bills activated Matt Milano off IR. I’m not sure if he’ll play tonight, but he has been the key cog to the Bills defense over the last few years (when healthy).

Give me the Bills by a 1,000 in this spot 10/10 times. I think they could seriously embarrass the 49ers tonight.

Lookahead (The Bears Are Back)

I’m so confident in the 49ers looking bad tonight that I locked in the team playing them next week as well, in expectation for the line to move against the 49ers.

That team just so happens to be my Chicago Bears who FINALLY fired head coach, Matt Eberflus.

Remember when the Saints dismantled the Falcons the week after they fired their head coach? And last year when the Raiders did the same thing? And the countless other “dead cat bounces” we’ve seen when the locker room gets what it wants/deserves?

Well that’s what I’m expecting for Chicago next week. And to be clear, I hate betting straight up on MY team - it adds way too much to an already emotionally-charged situation, so if I’m putting my money alongside my allegiance, I feel pretty strongly…

The Others

Seahawks vs. Jets: Wind potentially a factor. Spreadsheet gives this one to the Jets who opened as favorites but the line flipped to the Seahawks. No way I’m betting on the Jets dumpster fire. I’m inclined to take Kenneth Walker with his line in the 50s, but he’s been inefficient recently so I’m staying away.

Texans vs. Jaguars: Spreadsheet says Houston but I’ll pass. Trevor Lawrence is supposedly back but who knows to what degree. Staying away.

Titans vs. Commanders: Pass. Spreadsheet has them even. Washington hasn’t looked right in the second half of the season but I CANNOT trust the Titans. The “right” bet here is probably the Titans but I can’t get there and there aren’t any players I’d like other than Nick Westbrook Ikhine TD because that seems automatic and his TD price is still +260.

Cardinals vs. Vikings: Spreadsheet gives the advantage to the Vikings, especially in the passing game, but Darnold has been not good so I’ll pass there. Jefferson lines are too high. McBride’s lines are high. All around pass.

Eagles vs. Ravens: Actually not sure what to do with this one. Gut and spreadsheet tell me to go with Eagles +3 and the U 50.5. But both teams have enough fire power to blow this one. I could see this going any direction. Probably just a popcorn game as of now.

Super Touchdown Fun Time!

At a certain point, it needs to be time to walk away from these. I’ve only hit one all year, but they’re just so enticing it’s hard not to!

No excuses, play like a champion.