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That’s it - let’s dive in!

Ravens vs. Chargers

HarBowl

This is more of a popcorn game for me (i.e., no solid reads or “edge” but excited to sit back and enjoy the football). There is obviously a lot of familiarity between coaching staffs and even players.

Both teams have dominated at times, but both have been dominated at times as well. Both like to establish the run on offense and shut it down on defense, and both have extremely talented QBs without true elite WR talents (although an argument could be made for Zay Flowers).

So what happens tonight if neither can run the ball as effectively as they’d like? It likely becomes a pass-heavy script.

And what do we know about Baltimore’s defense? They are a pass funnel.

We (I) don’t know as much about the Chargers’ defense but Cincinnati absolutely shredded them in the second half of last week’s game.

Factor all of that together and you get the relatively high total of 50.5 points, which honestly feels really weird for a Chargers/Ravens matchup.

Longest Reception Three Ways

Although you could make a case for just about any receiver in tonight’s game, I’m going back to the well with the longest reception against the Ravens’ defense, but unlike with the Steelers, there’s not necessarily an obvious option for the Chargers between Ladd McConkey (22.5), Quentin Johnston (22.5), and Josh Palmer (18.5).

But I don’t want to commit to Justin Herbert’s longest reception pass line of 37.5 yards, so I’d need to pick between those three receivers.

OR…maybe I just pick them all? For the past five weeks, 2/3 of these guys have cashed this line in the same game, including two games in which Quentin didn’t play.

So I’m taking all three of their longest receptions and hoping 2/3 of them hit, but giving myself a chance for all three to hit. The risk is obviously that only one or none hit, but personally I think that’s appropriate for the upside potential.

And then also I went ahead and put another unit on Josh Palmer because I feel like he’s always catching long passes.

I realize the disproportionate unit dispersion completely negates my entire argument/strategy above.

So be it, I got a feeling.

Palmer is a plums bet (of which I’m 0-1 so far this year).

Dicker The Kicker

The only other preconceived notion I have on these teams is that the Chargers struggle to convert in the red zone. I don’t know if that’s legitimately true on the season or not, but they burned me earlier in the year so now I think they are chokers.

Plus, I think the Ravens have good red zone defense? Really detailed analysis here, but I’m going with Cameron Dicker the Kicker.

He’s Over his line of 7.5 kicking points in 7/10 games this year and unlike other kickers in the league, he’s actually been somewhat reliable.

And then the below is the first result after typing “Cameron Dicker” into giphy. I can’t not put it in the newsletter…

No excuses, play like a champion.