After much inner turmoil, I’ve decided to pass on tonight’s MNF game. I had my bets picked out (shared below) but ultimately couldn’t get the conviction level high enough to pull the trigger.

Yes, I still believe in betting for “the fun of it” even if conviction levels aren’t high, but as I sit here currently teetering on the positive edge of breakeven for the week, forcing it on tonight’s game just doesn’t seem worth it.

In other words, the potential downside of my relatively lower conviction bets dragging me into negative territory for the week far outweighs the added entertainment value of betting on tonight’s game.

I’ll take my +2.2u (4.4% return) for the week and walk away, and now I can’t help but wonder, is this growth, or am I simply a coward?

Browns vs. Broncos

Shamefully (Or Proudly) Passing On The Game

That’s right, once again this empty bet slip is not a typo. Although, HAD I placed bets tonight, it would have looked a little something like this:

Props

• 1u Courtland Sutton O 68.5 rec yds

• 1u Devaughn Vele O 38.5 rec yds

• 1u Bo Nix O 23.5 rush yds

TDs

• 0.5u Bo Nix +330 (FD)

• 0.5u Courtland Sutton TD +165 (DK)

• 0.25u Courtland Sutton 2 TD +1300 (DK)

• 0.25u Jameis Winston +950 (FD)

As for the game, here’s my thought process:

The spreadsheet gives Denver the edge, but not by much, and neither team has a demonstrable trench advantage in the pass or run game.

Podcasts/Articles are very much mixed, with some thinking the Browns are frauds while others think the Broncos and Bo Nix are frauds. Is this game a fraud-off? Not sure…

From what I gathered, this game comes down to defensive pressure, and in all likelihood, the team who generates the most/best pressure on the opposing QB has the edge.

At first thought, I’d give that edge to Cleveland, but they’ve been spotty (at best) this year and tend to not perform on the road…to the point where I can’t trust them. If they show up, Bo Nix is a different QB with pressure (not good at all). However, if they don’t, Bo Nix should have a decent game.

Given my (almost) bet slip, I tend to think the Browns will once again NOT show up on the road, and/or Sean Payton will be able to scheme around Miles Garrett enough for Bo Nix to have success - or at least enough for Courtland Sutton and Devaughn Vele to get theirs.

However, if they do show up, Bo Nix should theoretically combat that with his ability to scramble. He hasn’t run much lately, but this could be the spot and the bet becomes a quasi-natural hedge against the Sutton/Vele bets.

Sutton is a target monster and elite WR1 while Vele has seen all of his offensive metrics increase consistently in the last 3-4 weeks. But be warned, this newsletter is extremely late and the best of those numbers are well gone.

On the other side, Jameis Winston is also a relatively binary QB when it comes to pressure. If the Broncos can generate a solid pass rush, he will likely struggle. If not, he’ll likely have success and Jerry Jeudy might get his revenge again against his former team.

And although I like Jameis, I do like the idea of fading him the week after he was the snow angel hero against the Steelers. Back-to-back hero games aren’t necessarily in his DNA.

So there you go - when it comes down to it, I can’t decide which Browns defense we’re going to see tonight and that’s why I’m holding back.

Stay tuned for the Week 13 full recap which features a rocky start on Thursday and Friday followed by a tremendous recovery on Sunday.

Also I completely missed two games in my previews (Raiders/Chiefs and Bucs/Panthers). Those will be in there.

No excuses, play like a champion.