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NFL Week 12 Betting Recap

Boom Or Bust Yields Another Breakeven Week

Author

Rule 76
November 27, 2024

Week 12 for me was just like your average power hitter in today’s game of baseball: strike out or home run.

Bears, Colts, Niners, Saquon - all home runs. Exactly how I predicted or even better.

Steelers, Giants, Chargers, non-Saquon Eagles - all big misses, like embarrassingly bad.

For some, I really should have known better (Steelers), but others were just some bad luck and variance (Chargers).

When it was all said and done, I was up 0.6u, or 1.6% return on the week, or practically breakeven…again.

But look, as far as I’m concerned in my early days of this, not losing money is a big Win, particularly when I’m a yard, catch, or point away from winning big.

It’ll come, trust the process, yada yada yada. Thanksgiving week is a HUGE slate. See you there.

Week 12 Performance Summary

Week 12: +0.6u, +1.6% return. Cumulative: +18.0u, +5.2% return

Steelers vs. Browns (TNF)

Source: PFF

Bet Summary

❌

1.00u

PIT -3.5 (@CLE)

-102 

❌

0.50u

PIT -5.5 (@ CLE)

+126 

❌ 54

1.00u

Najee Harris O 82.5 rush/rec yds

-115 

✅ 64

1.00u

Jaylen Warren O 48.5 rush/rec yds

-114 

✅ 64

0.50u

Jaylen Warren 60+ rush/rec yds

+140 

✅ 14

1.00u

Darnell Washington O 11.5 rec yds

-110 

❌

0.50u

Darnell Washington TD

+1000 

❌

0.25u

PIT Def TD

+700 

❌

0.15u

PIT Def First D

+2900 

❌

0.10u

PIT Def 2 TD

+10000 

❌

❌

✅

❌

✅

1.00u

4-Leg Parlay Boost
- PIT -5.5 (@ CLE)
- PIT 2H ML (@ CLE)
- Najee Harris 75+ rush/rec yds
- Jaylen Warren 50+ rush/rec yds

+490 (20% profit boost) 🚀

See my Previous Thoughts for more details.

Weather Weather Weather

This game was insane. First of all, this simply boils down to I should have known better than to bet on the Steelers as 3+ points favorites. As bad as the Browns looked against the Saints, “don’t bet on Tomlin as a heavy favorite” is kind of one of those golden rules. Also with the weather being an insane variable, I really should have reeled it in better than I did. I won’t be making this mistake again.

That said, I was on the money with Jaylen Warren and Darnell Washington, and Najee was closer than the final number indicates.

Of course the real story was the weather, and particularly the sudden transformation during the third quarter. I mean look at the below that happened over 8 minutes of game clock…

But I have to say, I was madly impressed with both teams’ ability to move the ball through the air in these conditions. Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston were both slingin’ it while George Pickens and Jerry Jeudy were still flying around the field making great catches. I remember what it’s like to play football in the snow as a kid and hanging on to deep/contested passes is not easy, but I guess that’s why they pay these guys the big bucks.

Vikings vs. Bears

Source: PFF

Bet Summary

✅ 5

1.00u

Rome Odunze O 3.5 rec

-108 

✅ 7

0.75u

D.J. Moore 6+ rec

+132 

✅

0.75u

Roschon Johnson TD

+250 

❌

0.25u

Roschon Johnson 2 TD

+2100 

✅ 35

0.75u

D'Andre Swift O 13.5 rec yds

-105 

✅ 35

0.25u

D'Andre Swift 25+ rec yds

+250 

See my Previous Thoughts for more details.

A few thoughts here: 1) The Bears are definitely out of playoff contention so we’re in “losing equals better draft pick” territory which makes this heartbreaking easier to swallow, but 2) I’m just numb to it all anyway, however, 3) Caleb Williams is looking better under the new offensive regime which is the most important thing, and 4) I’ve actually been pretty successful betting on them in certain spots this year…sooooo I’ll take it?

Buccaneers vs. Giants

Source: PFF

Bet Summary

❌ 42

2.00u

Tyrone Tracy Jr. O 61.5 rush yds

-110

See my Previous Thoughts for more details.

Bucs Took The Subway To Domination Station

Yikes. This one wasn’t even close, huh? DeVito was bad, Bucky Irving was outstanding, Baker Mayfield was “celebrating” Italian-Americans, and the worst possible game script for this bet unfolded immediately.

The Bucs jumped out to an early lead, putting the Giants in a trailing game script and limited Tracy’s rushing attempts to 9. He still managed 4.7 yards per carry which is pretty good, but he also lost another fumble. Ball security bro…

Cowboys vs. Commanders

Source: PFF

Bet Summary

✅ 102

2.00u

Terry McLaurin O 59.5 rec yds

-110

See my Previous Thoughts for more details.

What Happened Here?

Full transparency, I need to rewatch this game in order to understand how the Cowboys pulled this one out. From what, I’ve seen, it was a wild one…

All I know is McLaurin wasn’t even close to cashing this until the very end where he had a miracle 86-yard quasi-hailmary TD reception to nearly push the game to OT.

Lions vs. Colts

Source: PFF

Bet Summary

✅ 10

1.00u

Anthony Richardson O 8.5 rush attempts

+115

✅ 17

1.00u

Anthony Richardson O 11.5 longest rush

-110

✅ 61

1.00u

Anthony Richardson O 43.5 rush yds

-110

❌ 3

0.75u

Jahmyr Gibbs 25+ rec yds

+130

❌ 3

0.25u

Jahmyr Gibbs 40+ rec yds

+320

See my Previous Thoughts for more details.

Lions Are Unstoppable

While that may be true, I was ON POINT with the Richardson rushing. He had 35 yards on the first drive!!!

And spoiler alert, I’ll be running it back with Caleb Williams for their Thanksgiving matchup. The Bears will probably get crushed, but it won’t matter to me if Caleb is running all over the place (jk it’ll still hurt when they lose).

49ers vs. Packers

Source: PFF

Bet Summary

✅ 37

1.00u

Christian McCaffrey O 28.5 rec yds

-110 

❌ 11

1.25u

Christian McCaffrey O 17.5 rush attempts

-128 

✅ 82

1.00u

George Kittle O 38.5 rec yds

-110 

✅

1.00u

George Kittle TD

+330 

❌

0.50u

George Kittle 2 TD

+3100 

See my Previous Thoughts for more details.

Bye Bye Purdy

What did we learn here? Brandon Allen isn’t the answer for Brock Purdy’s replacement, BUT the Niners still have talented players and their prop lines were deflated way too far. They got crushed and Kittle still put up 82 yards and a TD, while his line was 38.5 and TD price was +330. I mean, what are they doing with those numbers???

Packers Mystery

The Packers remain a black box to me in terms of betting player props. They put up 38 points but not a single receiver had more than 3 receptions of 60 receiving yards. Meanwhile Josh Jacobs had THREE TDs on 26 (!) carries for 106 yards. The Niners are injured but geez, that’s just bully ball.

Eagles vs. Rams (SNF)

Source: PFF

Bet Summary

✅

1.00u

Saquon Barkley 100+ rush yds

+104 

❌ 19

1.00u

Dallas Goedert O 51.5 rec yds

-110 

❌

0.75u

Dallas Goedert TD

+310 

❌

0.25u

Dallas Goedert 2 TD

+3100 

See my Previous Thoughts for more details.

Holy Saquon

26 carries for 255 yards and 2 TDs, plus 4 receptions for 47 more yards. WOW.

A running back hasn’t won MVP since Adrian Peterson in 2012…could that change this year? We’ll see, but he’d have my vote right now. Dude is a beast and a half.

Ravens vs. Chargers

Source: PFF

Bet Summary

❌ 19

1.00u

Ladd McConkey O 22.5 longest rec

-115 

❌ 0

1.00u

Quentin Johnston O 22.5 longest rec

-115 

❌ 17

2.00u

Joshua Palmer O 18.5 longest rec

-114 

✅ 11

2.00u

Cameron Dicker O 7.5 kicking points

-114 

See my Previous Thoughts for more detail.

Dicker The Kicker

First of all, props to Cameron Dicker (the Kicker) for continuing to be absolutely MONEY.

But then most off all, a big FU to Quentin Johnston for dropping every pass thrown his way and also the Ravens’ defense for interfering with Palmer on every deep ball thrown his way. I’m too lazy to go back and look at the play-by-play but there were SEVERAL instances where Palmer was targeted well beyond that 18.5 mark and he was blatantly interfered with by the Ravens. You couldn’t just let him get ONE?

McConkey was a miss (fair), but Johnston and Palmer should have hit, which would have proved my 2/3 thesis. Dumb dumb dumb.

Teasers & Super Touchdown Fun Time!

Bet Summary

❌

❌

✅

❌

❌

2.00u

4-Leg 7-Point Teaser
- TEN/HOU U 47.5
- SF/GB O 37.5
- PHI/LA U 55.5
- DAL/WAS U 52

+200

❌

❌

✅

❌

❌

1.00u

4-Leg 7-Point Teaser
- NYG +13 vs. TB
- PHI +4 @ LAR
- WAS -3.5 vs DAL
- IND +14.5 vs. DET

+200

❌

❌

✅

❌

❌

1.00u

5-Leg TD Round Robin (Tyrone Tracy, Nico Collins, Terry Mclaurin, Anthony Richardson, Jayden Reed)

+14402 (by 3's, parlay)

❌

❌

❌

❌

0.25u

3-Leg 2 TD Round Robin (Tyrone Tracy, Terry McLaurin, Jayden Reed)

+270300 (by 2's, parlay)

See my Previous Thoughts for more details.

No excuses, play like a champion.