Thursday Night Football; AFC North matchup; inclement weather - what other variables should we introduce to this one?

I have to admit, it would be very Browns for them to pull this one out, but there’s no way I can get back on that train after what they did to me last week - particularly given Pittsburgh’s advantage at the line, Pittsburgh’s coaching advantage, and the apparent quit from some defensive players on Cleveland last week.

But given the chances for this game to get wonky, I wanted to play some player props as well - particularly ones that I thought were suitable across all weather outcomes.

I haven’t seen many people on the Browns (which scares me), but let’s just hope this game goes how it’s supposed to go.

Stillers country…let’s ride

Steelers vs. Browns

Not A Great Read

To be completely honest, I don’t have an excellent read on how this game is going to go. Not just because the Browns have been extremely inconsistent this year, or because AFC North matchups are notoriously hard-fought and close, or because TNF can be wonky, but mostly because of the weather.

But betting is fun. I sat out SNF and MNF for the same reason and that’s boring!

Weather Weather Weather

Throughout the week, all anybody could talk about was the weather. Rain, wind, snow, cold, etc.

Early in the week, the weather looked bad bad - to the point where I heard murmurs of this game getting rescheduled.

As the week progressed, the forecast improved, but it still remains a significant variable in the game. It’s still expected to rain and probably snow; however the statistically proven most important factor, wind, no longer seems to be as severe.

That said, Cleveland’s location on Lake Erie brings about the possibility of lake-effect snow, which can be extremely unpredictable.

Tomlin Time

As a result, I’ve read/heard that both teams are preparing two game plans - a conservative one for inclement weather and an aggressive one for more playable conditions.

To me, that means 1) coaching becomes an even more important factor than it already is (an edge I think we can all agree goes to Pittsburgh), and 2) “handicapping” this game becomes a tale of two paths (and for context, my bets were placed around 3pm ET today).

Hypothetical: Weather Bad, But Not Bad Bad

In the scenario where wind and heavy snow aren’t significant factors, both teams should have the ability to pass and earnestly push the ball down the field, something both Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston have consistently done since taking over their starting roles.

And although one has obviously done so more effectively than the other, this would probably be the most likely avenue in which the Browns would find relative success (i.e., better weather increase their chances to shock the world).

This would also likely push the Total higher as we get closer to game time.

Hypothetical: Weather Bad Bad

On the other hand, if conditions significantly affect both teams’ ability to pass, an even heavier advantage must be given to Pittsburgh. Cleveland has been totally ineffective running the ball recently despite returning Nick Chubb. Offensive line injuries and a likely trailing game script won’t help if Jameis can’t work the ball down the field in the air.

Meanwhile, the opposite could be said about the Steelers. Imagine being on the 2-8 Browns, losing in the second half again, in the freezing rain/snow and having to tackle Najee Harris over and over again. No thanks.

Browning Down And Out

Some of the Browns’ defenders clearly quit in the second half on Sunday despite playing in a dome - I could definitely see some 2nd half blown tackles pile up on the stat sheet for Najee AND Jaylen Warren - hence the prop bets on both of them - and since weather is a variable and it seemed like the Steelers threw a lot of short screen passes last weekend against a fellow AFC North opponent, I figured it was safest to take the combined rushing/receiving lines - especially for Warren but Harris too.

To be clear, I’m on Pittsburgh regardless (largely based on coaching and the quit I saw from the Browns on Sunday), but my confidence has a directly negative correlation with the quality of weather (i.e., bad weather = more confident, good weather = less confident).

Darts

The only bets I haven’t really covered are Darnell Washington and Pittsburgh Defensive TDs. Both are rooted in the weather but are admittedly unlikely to happen.

Pittsburgh Defense

Pittsburgh Defensive TD is priced at +700 (FD) and 2 TD is priced at +10000 (FD) which equates to an implied probability of 13% and 0.9%, respectively.

In this exact scenario with inclement weather and a reeling Browns team with Jameis Winston at the healm, do I think the Steelers come up with a pick-6 or fumble-6 more than 13 out of 100 times, and twice in just 1 out of 100 times?

Yes - that’s absolutely enough to sprinkle.

Darnell Washington Is Huge

6’6” 264 lbs to be exact, and Russell Wilson is short. With tough conditions and visibility, I could see Wilson looking for safety in his biggest target. Plus, Washington’s snaps and routes have been generally increasing since Wilson took over, while Freiermuth has been quiet. If I have to take someone rain or shine, let it be the big man.

That’s it - it’s in Tomlin’s hands now…MWAH!

No excuses, play like a champion.