Week 11: Another week of feeling more “right” than my results reflect. There are quite a few more green check marks than red X’s in the recap below, but those red X’s just happened to be attached to my biggest bets.

And once again, the lesson learned is a form of discipline: diversification - something my financial analysis brain knows all too well, despite it being something that I’ve ironically gotten wrong many times this year. However, this time, it wasn’t as a result of going too overboard on player props and longshot odds - instead, it was simply an over-reliance on one team: the Cleveland Browns (bleh).

To my own defense, while Monday/Tuesday hindsight always seems so clear, I maintain the difficulty of “portfolio construction” on a weekly basis is high. There is a ton of information flying around out there. Numbers are constantly moving and it’s tough to constantly check in and check out throughout the week (as a result of doing this as a hobby, not full-time gig or even side hustle).

For every bet I make, there’s at least 5 more that I’ve seriously considered and it can be easy to lose sight of the relative concentration on certain teams and/or players throughout the week.

I point this out as an honest reflection of my process and results; not just to make excuses…this is Rule 76 after all (no excuses is kind of my thing).

Week 11 Performance Summary

Teasers

See my Previous Thoughts for more detail.

Spreadsheet & Overall Review

Let’s start with a review of the blind spreadsheet recommendations (before I compare to actual lines and totals…

• Cover/Win: Lions (✅), Browns (❌), Colts (✅), Rams (✅), Chiefs (❌), Niners (❌)

• Over: Broncos/Falcons (PUSH), Bears/Packers (❌), Niners/Seahawks (❌)

• Under: Rams/Patriots (❌), Chargers/Bengals (❌), Steelers/Ravens (✅)

Verdict: Not great. Particularly the Totals, which seem to be deteriorating as an indicator lately.

Next, let’s compare to my selected subset after comparing to actual Spread/Total lines…

• Cover/Win: Browns (❌), Colts (✅), Chiefs (❌)

• Over: Broncos/Falcons (PUSH), Bears/Packers (❌)

• Under: Steelers/Ravens (✅)

Verdict: Better, but still not fantastic.

Finally, let’s compare to my manual overrides based on what I see with my own eyes (i.e., this should summarize how the week went as a whole).

• Cover/Win: Browns (❌), Colts (✅), Chiefs (❌), Lions (✅), Broncos (✅), Steelers (✅)

• Over: Broncos/Falcons (PUSH)

• Under: Commanders/Eagles (✅)

Verdict: 5-2-1, which is honestly pretty good. Factor in going 3-3 on my highly selective player props (Bo Nix passing, George Pickens longest reception, and Brock Purdy rushing) and it was actually a really good week in terms of “being right”.

So…What’s With The Breakeven Results?

Well, the problem is, even though I was only “wrong” on two spots this week, they happened to be two of my most confident and concentrated positions.

Browning Out

For instance, I was so confident on fading the Saints coming off their post-coach-fire-dead-cat-bounce win against the Falcons and buying the Browns who were coming off their Bye with a virtually non-existent injury report.

I not only took them straight up against the Saints, but I also picked some alternate spreads in expectation of a dominant win. And I didn’t stop there, I also included them in BOTH of my teasers, obviously thinking there was no way the Saints could flip the table and dominate the Browns instead?!?

Getting Taysom Hill-ed

Unfortunately for me, that’s exactly what happened thanks to Taysom Hill having one of his random “I’m the best football player to ever live” games. There’s usually one or two of them per year, but you just never know when they’re coming. It’s kind of like seeing a shooting star - some nights might be more likely than others but you never really know when a good one might pop up.

At Peace With Mahomes Loss

My other big loser of the week was the Chiefs falling to the Bills in their first loss in 11 months…

Like I said in my preview, all signs pointed to the Bills in this spot, but I’ve slowly learned to simply never bet against Mahomes as an Underdog. Over time, this bet wins more than it loses, but Josh Allen was spectacular and he deserved the W. I’m at peace with that.

Jinxing Myself

I pointed out in my Week 11 Preview that given my success with Teasers lately, I was going to increase my unit size on them, but also that since I was pointing that out, I would likely jinx myself and go 0-2. Well, thanks to Taysom Hill and the Saints, that proved to be true.

Lesson Learned: Diversification is key regardless of confidence interval. I simply had too much tied to the Browns - to the point where that miss brought me all the way to breakeven in an otherwise nearly perfect weekend.

Other Non-Bet Takes

Let’s quickly review some positions I almost took but never got around to it:

• Seahawks/49ers - Typically I’d be on 49ers but I can’t get over their weird performances so far. I have no idea if the Seahawks are trustworthy. If DK Metcalf plays, they have a chance here coming off the bye.

  • (✅) - The 49ers are in trouble…

• Packers/Bears - Can we just ignore this game completely? I’ve heard from enough “experts” this week who are on the Bears because the number is too big. As a Bears fan, I’m not sure this number can ever be big enough. Our only hope is a Jordan Love pick-6. Otherwise, continue to fire everyone and sell the team.

  • (❌) - Continuing to not comment on the Bears. It’s almost comical at this point…

• Bengals/Chargers - SNF. I’m starting to think the Bengals are a little fraudulent. Their offense is explosive at times, but is it consistent enough to make up for the horrible defense? Meanwhile Herbert and Harbaugh are just two adorable peas in a pod together. The Chargers seem happy, but I just don’t know if I can trust them to convert in the red zone and actually score touchdowns. If they do, I can see the Bengals being blown out here.

  • (✅) - Chargers had their way with the Bengals in the first half and certainly made this game look like a blowout, but the Bengals came storming back in the second half and almost pulled it off.

• Cowboys/Texans - Call me crazy but the spreadsheet suggests the Cowboys should Cover this. Then there’s the kneecap trend which suggests fading the team who just played the Lions (Texans). I’m not putting action on it because the Cowboys looked so so so bad, but I wouldn’t be totally shocked to see a Texans letdown here…

  • (❌) - Although I wouldn’t necessarily say the Texans looked good, Joe Mixon and the defense did, which was enough to hold off the Cowboys.

• Raiders/Dolphins - Nope. Ew. But Jonnu Smith will probably hit his receptions Over this week IF I don’t bet on him.

  • Jonnu Smith: (✅) - 6 rec on 8 targets for 101 yards and 2 TD. I mean come on…

Commanders vs. Eagles (TNF)

See my Week 11 Preview for full thoughts and recap.

Ravens vs. Steelers

See my Week 11 Preview for full thoughts and recap.

Research Pays Off

So this actually ended up being pretty important analysis. Pickens was the Steelers’ longest pass catcher of the day and it was 37 yards, well over his line (26.5) but just short of Russell Wilson’s line (37.5).

In other words, had I went with Russ Wilson’s longest completion (in case it wasn’t Pickens), this bet would have missed, but correctly speculating the longest would go to Pickens with 11 yards of buffer turned this into a win.

Chiefs vs. Bills

See my Week 11 Preview and above for full thoughts and recap.

Falcons vs. Broncos

See my Week 11 Preview for full thoughts and recap.

Browns vs. Saints

See my Week 11 Preview for full thoughts and recap.

Rams vs. Patriots

See my Week 11 Preview for full thoughts and recap.

49ers vs. Seahawks

See my Week 11 Preview for full thoughts and recap.  

Jaguars vs. Lions

See my Week 11 Preview for full thoughts and recap.

Super Touchdown Fun Time!

No excuses, play like a champion.