Week 10 was tough but there were a lot of lessons learned. I’m back in Week 11 with a much more straightforward card.

Once again, the Teasers summarize which teams I’m on most (Chiefs, Browns, Colts, Steelers, and the Broncos/Falcons Over).

And while I’m still on a few player props, this week is mostly for Sides and Totals.

Not as much upside potential this week, but hopefully less variance as well.

Thoughts on all games below!

Commanders vs. Eagles (TNF Quick Recap)

I alluded to it in my Week 10 Recap, but I was considering playing the Under in TNF’s matchup between the Commanders and Eagles. It was slightly a worksheet play as both teams had modest run-game advantages and virtually non-existent pass game advantages in the trenches combined with it being a Thursday game and divisional matchup.

I expected a fair amount of rushing and minimal explosive plays, and just before kickoff I finally caved and threw in a unit on Under 49.5 (which had stepped up modestly throughout the week).

The first half was looking real good, thanks to a couple missed field goals and questionable 4th down calls. Only 10 points were scored by halftime, followed by only 6 more in the third quarter.

But then Saquon and the Eagles exploded in the fourth quarter, putting up 20 of their 26 total points. The Commanders answered with 8 and by the end of it, the total came in at 44, which is indeed a winner, but would have actually been a loser had it not been for the missed field goals and PATs earlier in the game.

For once, I was on the right side of some weird kicker stuff. I’ll take it.

Teasers

Let’s start with a spreadsheet overview. Recall I am using the PFF offensive & defensive line matchup tool, working with the data to determine who has the best net advantage and capacity to score points, and then comparing that to the Spreads/Totals as well as my own thoughts from watching the games.

It’s a little chaotic, but here’s a snapshot of what it looks like:

Without any comparisons to Spreads/Totals, the spreadsheet suggests:

• Cover/Win: Lions, Browns, Colts, Rams, Chiefs, Niners

• Over: Broncos/Falcons, Bears/Packers, Niners/Seahawks

• Under: Rams/Patriots, Chargers/Bengals, Steelers/Ravens

Next, I compare those suggestions to the actual Spreads/Totals. For example, the Lions have the best trench advantage this week but they’re favored to win by 13-14 points, so that makes sense. I’m typically looking for teams whose trench advantage (according to the worksheet) doesn’t match the Spread/Total line. For instance:

• Cover/Win: Browns, Colts, Chiefs

• Over: Broncos/Falcons, Bears/Packers

• Under: Steelers/Ravens

Next, I remove teams/games in which I strongly have a different opinion from watching the games (explanations below):

• Cover/Win: Browns, Colts, Chiefs

• Over: Broncos/Falcons

• Under:

Finally, I scan the sheet (beyond the top 5-6) for other mismatches between the worksheet’s suggestion and the actual Spreads/Totals and if I agree with it, I’ll add them in:

• Cover/Win: Browns, Colts, Chiefs, Lions, Broncos, Steelers

• Over: Broncos/Falcons

• Under: Commanders/Eagles (✅)

That’s generally how I arrive at which games to bet on / tease, and from which games I’ll go hunting for player props. There’s always possible matchups that I’ll pick up from a podcast or article that I’ll throw in, but I’ve found that sticking to the sheet has been relatively consistent and successful.

Of course now that I point that out, it’ll surely go 0-fer.

For those chosen games, explanations are in the sections to follow. For the rest of the games, here are just some quick thoughts:

• Colts/Jets - I’m back on the Colts in TEASER form only because they’ve burned me a few times now. But they still tend to keep games close and the Jets are back to a raging dumpster fire. I’ll take my chances. Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor should run all over them.

• Seahawks/49ers - Typically I’d be on 49ers but I can’t get over their weird performances so far. I have no idea if the Seahawks are trustworthy. If DK Metcalf plays, they have a chance here coming off the bye.

• Packers/Bears - Can we just ignore this game completely? I’ve heard from enough “experts” this week who are on the Bears because the number is too big. As a Bears fan, I’m not sure this number can ever be big enough. Our only hope is a Jordan Love pick-6. Otherwise, continue to fire everyone and sell the team.

• Bengals/Chargers - SNF. I’m starting to think the Bengals are a little fraudulent. Their offense is explosive at times, but is it consistent enough to make up for the horrible defense? Meanwhile Herbert and Harbaugh are just two adorable peas in a pod together. The Chargers seem happy, but I just don’t know if I can trust them to convert in the red zone and actually score touchdowns. If they do, I can see the Bengals being blown out here.

• Cowboys/Texans - Call me crazy but the spreadsheet suggests the Cowboys should Cover this. Then there’s the kneecap trend which suggests fading the team who just played the Lions (Texans). I’m not putting action on it because the Cowboys looked so so so bad, but I wouldn’t be totally shocked to see a Texans letdown here…

• Vikings/Titans - Absolutely not. Pass.

• Raiders/Dolphins - Nope. Ew. But Jonnu Smith will probably hit his receptions Over this week IF I don’t bet on him.

Chiefs vs. Bills

ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!?

This is why we do it, right? Chiefs, Bills, Mahomes, Allen, Kelce, the refs - the gang’s all here! This is why we watch (and bet on) football.

So whose side are you on? History has taught us to always bet on Mahomes as an underdog. But the Bills “model” out to be a better team and Josh Allen tends to cover short spreads. The “pros” are likely on the Bills, but I can’t not bet on Mahomes at plus money.

If these bets are how I lose money, then so be it. Over time, these are winners and I’m at peace with that.

In reality, Amari Cooper’s and Dalton Kincaid’s statuses are extremely important in this matchup. The Bills like to run but the only way to beat the Chiefs is to pass. Keon Coleman is already out - the Bills can’t afford to lose any more trustworthy sets of hands.

Falcons @ Broncos

In The Spreadsheet We Trust

The spreadsheet says these teams have the biggest combined and passing-only offensive line advantages this week. To me, that means points, so with a relatively low line of 44, I’ll take a shot here. I’m just hoping for some red zone conversion and NO MORE MISSED FIELD GOALS PLEASE.

Game Script & “The Spot”

The Falcons are coming off a tough divisional loss, which is not exactly the right time to fade them. But they’re traveling in back-to-back weeks against a defense that has proven it can show up (at times). Could they outscore the Broncos and take this one? Certainly.

But the Broncos offense (and specifically Bo Nix) has shown moments of excellence throughout the year - particularly without constant pressure, which we know is not something the Falcons can generate.

I think Nix has time to pass. I think Courtland Sutton is THAT DUDE. And I think the Broncos just might win in a shootout here. 208.5 passing yards is insulting.

Broncos Country…Let’s Ride

Browns vs. Saints

Eating W’s For Jameis Winston’s Homecoming

Let’s be honest, the Saints are in a prime letdown spot - coming off a big divisional win at home after firing their head coach. That is a one-time dead cat bounce if I ever saw one.

The thing is, I can’t decide if I love or hate that this game is against the Browns. I love it because the Browns aren’t respected enough to be favorites (meaning better payouts for fading the Saints), but I hate it because it’s the Browns and Jameis Winston (returning to New Orleans for the first time) brings a ton of variance with him.

It’s kind of like doubling down with an 8 against a dealer-6. Sure, it’s a good hand so get your money on the table, but it could certainly be a better hand and there’s room for things to go wrong. The dealer should bust (the Saints should flub), but in a blink of an eye, you could take a three and dealer flip a 5 (Jameis throwing a pick-6 in critical scenario) and then you’re sunk.

Trust the process. Give Chubb the ball. MVS isn’t a legitimate WR1. Deep breaths. Eat the W.

Rams vs. Patriots

Mystery Bet

I’ve got to be honest, I don’t remember putting this one in (it must have been early in the week). I honestly don’t feel too strongly either way but this must have been done to simply fade the Patriots after a false win against my Bears.

Maybe there’s some self-deprecation built in here - if the Pats fall back to earth it means the Bears are truly horrible, which makes me feel better in a way?

How messed up is that?

Ravens vs. Steelers

Flow Chart Game

Sometimes, you just have to play the flow chart. The Rams own the Cardinals; the 49ers own the Rams; the Packers own the Bears; always bet Mahomes as an underdog, the Colts always lose Week 1. The list goes on and on.

But perhaps the biggest golden rule is to play AFC North short underdogs - especially the Steelers and especially at home. There are so many stats/trends out there that support this bet that I’m not even going to waste my time regurgitating them. This is what Tomlin does. It doesn’t matter how he does it or what it looks like; but he gets it done like 90% of the time.

Draymond Green Of The NFL

Annie Agar referred to George Pickens as the Draymond Green of the NFL in her Week 10 Meeting, which is just the most hilariously perfect cross-sport analogy.

Be that as it may, he’s got a great matchup here. I could see an angle for all of his props but his longest reception O 26.5 yards is definitely my favorite. Pickens is over this in all but two games this year (both of which were with Justin Fields). Meanwhile, the Ravens’ defense has been a pass funnel. They have surrendered a reception over this number in all but one game this year (and that was 26 yards…). Plus, they are likely without defensive jack-of-all-trades, Kyle Hamilton.

There’s no guarantee the longest pass-catcher will be Pickens, but it has been in every game that Russ has played so far. And considering Russ’s longest completion line is 37.5, I’ll roll the dice on choosing Pickens at an 11-yard discount.

49ers vs. Seahawks

The Seahawks are a bit of a mystery to me right now, so I don’t have much of a read for anything else in this game, but Purdy rushing is simply automatic. He’ll miss at some point but I’ll keep letting it ride until we get to that point.

Jaguars vs. Lions

That’s a lot of points… but even though the Lions technically won last week, they looked bad and I think they could be on a little revenge tour against themselves.

Remember what happened against the Titans? I could see that again…

Super Touchdown Fun Time!

No excuses, play like a champion.