Week 12: Most Difficult Week So Far. When I first looked at the “board” this week, there wasn’t a single game that jumped out to me. And then after putting the below PFF data into my worksheet, there still wasn’t a single game that jumped out at me.

Every team with an advantage in the trenches is either battling injuries or playing in a tough spot to the point where if I was really super serious about this, I would probably just take this week off.

But that’s no fun, so while I still have my two teasers with my highest conviction sides/totals for the week, the rest are mostly player props based on articles, podcasts, and a little bit of the worksheet-suggested matchups below.

If I had to guess, this is probably a down week for me, and I’d also expect some crazy happenings around the league. There will be large, unexpected upsets this week - it’s just a matter of who...

Teasers & Super Touchdown Fun Time!

Vikings vs. Bears

EmBEARassing?

We start with the Bears who are undoubtedly in a good spot. The Vikings are playing their third road game in a row. They are a dome team with a dome QB playing in the elements. The Bears are rebounding off the firing of Shane Waldron and it all seems to be moving in the right direction again.

However, I can’t get over Caleb Williams facing a Brian Flores genius-blitz-happy defense for the first time in his career. That could be a recipe for absolute disaster.

So I’m expecting lots of short passes and screens to D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze, as well as D’Andre Swift, whose yard line is puzzlingly low to me.

Also Roschon Johnson’s TD price is mysteriously low. He’s been getting the short yardage and red zone work under the new regime. I actually bet this earlier in the week and cashed out when I saw the price going up…

Buccaneers vs. Giants

[Insert Borderline Insensitive But Still Somehow Socially Acceptable Italian Prejudice Line]

It’s Tommy DeVito time in the Meadowlands. If you missed the Giants/Dan Jones drama these past couple weeks, go ahead and give it a Google, but now it’s once again Italian time in New Jersey.

This is actually tough because the spreadsheet says the Giants have an advantage here, but can I really roll with Tommy DeVito? Plus, the Bucs are coming off their Bye and getting Mike Evans back (to an unknown degree but I’d imagine at least in the red zone).

So while I can’t muster up the courage to go straight up on the Giants, Tyrone Tracy’s rushing line caught my eye. He’s over this line in the last three games, including two games over 100 yards. His attempts line is also suspiciously low, which worries me given his pretty terrible fumble in OT two weeks ago in London. But him and Nabers are really the only good things about the offense, so are they really going to punish him for that?

Meanwhile, the defense should be good enough to avoid a full blowout where the Giants have to completely abandon the run game. We’ll see, but something’s off about this one and I hope it’s just an overcorrection from the fumble and off week.

Let’s beat up the beat…

Cowboys vs. Commanders

Rinse & Repeat

This is almost the same scenario as the Giants/Bucs game. The spreadsheet says the Cowboys should be able to cover this large number, but I can’t get behind it with a bad backup QB against an offense that’s primed for a get-right spot.

Plus, there’s a realistic possibility the Cowboys are already looking ahead to Thursday’s game against the Tommy DeVito Giants. Dallas cares about Thanksgiving and that’s one of the few winning games left on the calendar without Dak.

Scary Terry

McLaurin’s stat sheet has been mostly binary this year. Big game, zero game, big game, zero game. But typically when the coaching staff comes out and says they want to get him more involved in the offense, they at least try to do that.

And the thing about beating the Cowboys is that it’s awesome for everyone, so I wouldn’t expect the Commanders to let up at all if they are able dominate.

In that case, 60 yards feels pretty easy for McLaurin. If not, Washington might have bigger issues on its hands…

Lions vs. Colts

Unstoppable Force Vs. Immovable Object

Both these teams Cover relentlessly, and as a result, I typically like to bet on both of them. Both have some injuries to contend with but both typically find a way to keep it close.

I’d be shocked if the Colts actually win, but I’d also be shocked if they got completely blown out - particularly if Anthony Richardson is anything even close to serviceable.

The Lions are awesome, but when they’ve struggled in the past, it typically comes against mobile QBs. Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and remember previous years with Justin Fields? Anthony Richardson is probably the closest thing to Justin Fields starting today, so if he continues to run, he should be able to find success, which should translate to Colts’ success - at least enough to keep them in it.

For Gibbs, I just think his line (18.5-19.5) continues to be too low - particularly in closer games. Simple.

49ers vs. Packers

Bye Bye Purdy

After looking at the tough slate and not knowing what to do, I knew at least I could bet on Brock Purdy rushing yards. It’s practically free money.

WRONG! Injured and out vs. the Packers. Enter Brandon Allen instead. I have to be honest, I haven’t seen him play at all, but my spreadsheet gives the 49ers the top net advantage for the week.

However, I can’t bet against the Packers because then they’ll surely win. Plus, both teams are dealing with injuries and there’s a ton of coaching incest between them. The Packers have even been working with former Jets head coach, Robert Saleh who essentially architected the 49ers’ defense. There’s too much to consider here…

Player props it is. Christian McCaffrey is self-explanatory - in Purdy’s absence, I’d expect the Niners to lean on CMC, and probably Kittle too. But given the downgrade in QB and Kittle coming off a missed week due to injury, I think this is the cheapest we’ll see him for receiving yards and TD possibly ever again. That’s drama, but you get the point.

Eagles vs. Rams (SNF)

E-A-G-L-E-S EAGLES

Hey Eagles, I like don’t trust you enough to cover against Stafford, but I do think Saquon will have a great game and as a result, Dallas Goedert will also have plenty of opportunities in the play action pass game.

That’s pretty much it. The Rams defense actually generates more pressure than people probably realize, and the same could be said about the Eagles pass coverage (both have been developing throughout the season).

What we’re left with is actually probably a run-heavy game. Prime time Unders are also typically profitable, so while it’s not fun, it would probably be the right move here. I’ll just ride with Saquon and Goedert instead.

The Others

Patriots vs. Dolphins: No good read here but Pats have looked better than being 7.5 dawgs suggests. Pass.

Titans vs. Texans: The worksheet actually says Texans but 7.5 is a lot of points for a Texans offense that just hasn’t looked right since the injuries. The Titans still play defense but I can’t trust Levis either. Flow chart says Texans beat the Titans. It feels like it’s Nico Collins time.

Chiefs vs. Panthers: Chiefs don’t usually cover big spreads. Chiefs coming off a loss so maybe bounceback but also is this just a sleepy letdown spot because the game isn’t that important. Meanwhile the Panthers have life. But what happens if/when they can’t run? You have to pass in order to beat the Chiefs. Can Bryce Young do that consistently enough to keep them in it?

Broncos vs. Raiders: Divisional home dawg - feels like a letdown spot for the Broncos, although the sheet suggests Denver. Don’t know what to do here.

Cardinals vs. Seahawks: This line has been all over the place. This is essentially a pick’em and the spreadsheet agrees. Eye test says Cardinals coming off a bye but spreadsheet gives the Seahawks the edge. Weather is important. Seahawks have struggled to cover at home and have only covered against bad and backup QBs.

Ravens vs. Chargers (MNF): Chargers defensive coach knowns how to play Lamar. We know what happens when teams know how to play Lamar. More to come on this tomorrow.

No excuses, play like a champion.