And we’re off! Saturday was pretty much just meh from both a football and betting perspective (+1.1u), but honestly, that’ pretty much in line with expectations.

I had some good live hits like C.J. Stroud rushing - following the Baker Mayfield thesis but flushed most of it by pressing on ladders (Tylan Wallace and Justice Hill) - full recap below.

So far, my Sunday slip hasn’t changed since yesterday, but since I didn’t lose money yesterday, I’ll likely be delving back into the Live markets today. Here's what I’ll be looking for:

Broncos/Bills

• In a scenario where the Broncos start hot and the Bills start flat, I’ll be looking to grab Bills ML at a better price than -450 (currently). I’d also be looking at both Josh Allen rushing yards and TD IF he hasn’t racked up the yards/TDs already. It all seems obvious, but Favorites and chalk have ruled this year…

• To the extent I can, I’ll also be trying to see how frequently the Broncos are playing Man coverage - remember what Mizo says: Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid vs. Man and Khalil Shakir vs. Zone. For what it’s worth, it’s also more likely for Josh Allen to run against Man coverage. I’m not sure I’m football smart enough to do this from a bar or buddy’s house, but it’s worth a shot.

Packers/Eagles

• Eagles all the way. I’ll simply be looking to double down on my existing pro-Eagles, Hurts, and Barkley bets. If any of them start off slow, which is very possible for the Eagles, it may have to be hammer time.

• For what it’s worth, I’m also strongly considering a Jordan Love interception ladder (2+ at +285 and 3+ at +1100 at DK). We all saw the domination station from the Texans and the Ravens yesterday. If that happens again, I could see a Love implosion. He’s thrown 2 and 3 picks each in one game this year (although he hasn’t thrown one since Week 11…)

Commanders/Bucs

• Similarly, I’ll mostly be looking to double down on my existing pro-Bucs and Bucky Irving bets, but I’m not as confident in the Bucs staging a comeback as I am in the Eagles. If Bucky Irving isn’t having his way early and the Bucs are forced into a shootout, I’m definitely more hesitant; whereas I simply cannot picture a situation in which Saquon is shut down for the entire game.

• Finally, the Live bets of all Live bets…Baker Mayfield rushing. If he’s hesitant to run in the first third/half-ish of the game, his prop line will venture down into the 10-15 territory, and potentially even to single digits. IF the game is close and/or if the Bucs are losing, that’s the time to UNLEASH on Baker Mayfield rushing. I don’t know if this is true, but I feel like the Live lines are simply algorithmic based on season-long averages and don’t properly quantify the situation of it all. In betting terms, that’s an edge for the bettor, which is pretty rare to have on a consistent basis.

Chargers vs. Texans

See my Previous Thoughts for more detail.

My entire breakdown of the game was spot on…for the first few possessions. Then it all shifted and C.J. Stroud and the Texans’ defense made me eat my words…all of them.

Fortunately for me, I was incrementally betting C.J. Stroud rushing yards before he started scrambling. This was the same reasoning as Baker Mayfield last week - there are a few QBs out there (Baker and Stroud included) who have the ability to successfully scramble, but since they only do it when they have to, their rushing prop lines are always deflated in important games - and particularly when they fall behind in those games.

As for the kickers, Dicker started out HOT, with two field goals in the first quarter. I thought his bet would hit for sure. On the other hand, Fairbairn was quiet for almost the entire first half until the Texans finally scored a TD with 1:02 left to play in the first half. And then the Texans got the ball back and kicked a field goal to end the half.

So, at halftime, I’m sitting at 6 points for Dicker and 4 for Fairbairn and I’m feeling good about it. Then C.J. and the Texans’ defense happened and the Chargers didn’t score again until the 4th quarter, after which Dicker’s PAT was blocked, and instead of catching the deflection, he batted it into the arms of a Texan who ran it back for two points.

So not only did Dicker fail me for the first time this year, he also made what will likely be the dumbest play of the entire weekend.

One more time for the memories…

Steelers vs. Ravens

See my Previous Thoughts for more detail.

This game was tough to watch - like watching a big bully beat up a little nerdy kid and the bully just keeps going even when the little nerdy kid stops fighting back.

Herbstreit nailed it on the call - the Steelers just had no fight. Sure, there were a couple moments of spark to get them their 14 points, but the Ravens were in complete control the entire time.

Somehow, my PIT +16.5 teaser leg hit but this felt like a 30+ point loss.

As for the Live betting, Tylan Wallace was directly from my Mizo post on Thursday. It was right, but I got a little carried away on the ladder so it ended up not being very profitable.

Both Derrick Henry and Justice Hill were obviously after watching the Steelers’ defense trying to stop Lamar. My theory was that after going up two scores, Lamar would stop running as frequently as he was, and Derrick Henry would take over. After a certain point, Justice Hill would enter the frame (in a blowout scenario). All of that kind of took place, but not the extent I was picturing - mostly because the Steelers were just barely hanging on.

As a hedge against the above point, and inline with my QBs rushing when losing must-win games, I thought Russ would take off a few more times than he did, but I should have known better…his age was clearly showing and Fields coming in sparingly for short yardage scenarios didn’t help either.

Still, 14.5 yards felt like a small number when nothing else was working.

No excuses, play like a champion.