Ah, the playoffs are finally here. On one hand, this is sadly the beginning of the end of the season. But on the other hand, these should be the best four weekends of football (and hopefully betting) for the entire season.

The only problem for this weekend (personally) is that I really only want to bet on the last three games. Sure, there are some teasers, round robins, and kicker props that I’m interested in today, but as far as my bet slip is concerned, the real fireworks start Sunday afternoon.

What that also means is that there’s more time to add even more depending on how today goes. We’ll see…

Keep in mind, there’s a lot of information and opinions out there for the playoffs - I try to focus on the 2-3 takeaways that matter most to me for each game, but that doesn’t mean I’m not trying to consider every point I come across.

Alright, buckle up…let’s football!

Weather / Injuries

A quick update on the weather and injuries. Other than the wind picking up a bit in Baltimore and obviously the Vikings/Rams game moving to Arizona, not much has changed for the weather.

As for injuries, the three that I was watching most closely were Zay Flowers who was ruled out earlier in the week, Joshua Palmer who was also ruled out, and Cam Heyward who has recovered from the flu and doesn’t carry an injury designation.

The remaining injuries have all gone as expected (Hurts cleared concussion protocol, Love seems fine, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith all seem fine, etc.).

Official Picks (Not Bets)

All this said, I’m not betting on every one of these angles. In fact, I’m only betting on a few, but I still want to take a stance on every game, and it also informs my teasers and round robins…

Multi-Game Teasers & Round Robins

Overall, the two RB/QB duos of Bucky Irving and Baker Mayfield, and Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts are my favorite prop areas this week, while the Eagles and Rams are my favorite straight up bets.

On top of that, if the game script allows (Bucs trailing), Baker Mayfield rushing yards is my favorite Live bet opportunity of the entire weekend (see Week 18 Live Betting Recap for analysis).

May I remind you the opinions of Mizo?

And dissecting the run game even further, look at the effective run push…

Technically, I should probably be on Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson as well, but a much healthier version of the Steelers’ defense scares me this week (more below).

The next two in line are the Bucs (mostly due to the weakness of Washington’s defensive line) and the Eagles (mostly due to the strength of Philly’s offensive line). It doesn’t matter how you get the push, as long as you do.

These are high-stakes, must-win games. Put the ball in your playmakers’ hands, control the clock, and protect the football.

Chargers vs. Texans

I’m keeping this one short. The Texans’ offense is broken. The Chargers defense is good.

On the other hand, this is the Chargers’ third road game in a row and Herbert has been questionable in the playoffs in the past, but I think this is just a whole new regime under Harbough.

I’m not confident enough to really spend much on this game, but I think Chargers win and cover in ugly fashion, people are bored with this game, and field goal props hit.

Steelers vs. Ravens

Similarly, I think this is potentially a big Under game, so I’m not spending much of my money here, although I feel more confident in both the Ravens winning but the Steelers covering.

Historically, the Steelers have been one of the only teams to be able to successfully contain Lamar Jackson. Also historically, Lamar has been less than stellar in the playoffs.

Rewind a few weeks to 12/21 when the Ravens demolished the Steelers and Lamar seemed to get over his kryptonite. However, the Steelers’ defense was nowhere near full strength in that game, and they were also missing George Pickens. Today, the Steelers have most of those players back in the lineup, making this matchup look a whole lot more like earlier in the season (Week 11) in which the Steelers won.

Now, Russell Wilson and the Steelers offense as looked as bad as the Texans in the past few weeks, so I’m not volunteering to take Steelers ML, but I do think the Steelers’ defense will do enough to keep this within 10 points… let alone 17-18 in a teaser.

Again, no actual bets here. If it wasn’t the Steelers, I’d be on Lamar rushing considering he’s been VERY willing lately, but the Steelers know how to contain him (I think). And then I alluded to some George Pickens props with a preference for his longest reception O 25.5 yards. I still like it, but ultimately never pulled the trigger.

Both of those could be Live angles, but I doubt it. We’ll see…

Broncos vs. Bills

I don’t have any further thoughts on this one than what I’ve already discussed this week. I like Bo Nix and the Broncos and do think they’ll cover, but there’s no way I’m putting my money on the other side of Josh Allen. I could also see an absolute blowout here, so it’s a big ol’ pass for me.

Mizo pointed to Denver RB receiving props - I like it but not enough to go in. I’ll allocate my funds elsewhere…

Packers vs. Eagles

Here we go, now we’re getting somewhere.

Shocker, I have not changed my mind at all about the Eagles being better than the Packers. They might start slow (because it seems like they always do), but eventually, both Saquon and Hurts’ running will simply be too much for the Packers.

A lot of people have been asking questions about the viability of the Eagles’ passing game, and while that may have merit, I think it only matters against a handful of opponents. The Packers are close to making that list, but they’re certainly not on in.

All the Eagles have to do is run the ball. “My best vs. your best” at the line of scrimmage and the Eagles take this one with ease. Saquon and Hurts each go Over their attempts and yards and probably TDs, and we’ll worry about the passing game another time.

Commanders vs. Buccaneers

See above for the rationale here, but my mind hasn’t changed on Baker’s rushing yards. If the Commanders can keep it close or even take an early lead, I think Baker rushing yards are the best bet of the entire weekend, but if the Bucs control the game from early on, I’m not as confident. Still enough to play a unit straight, but this is a major Live betting opportunity.

Now to Bucky Irving. Again, the rationale is above in the Teaser section, but this man is simply special, and the Bucs have shown a willingness to overload him when it matters.

His line has responded, but he’s still been Over the past two weeks despite the adjustment. I’m choosing to view that line movement as confirmatory. It’s a Bucky Irving game.

Vikings vs. Rams

Obviously this game has been moved to Arizona due to the fires in LA. Does that technically remove homefield advantage for the Rams?

Yes, but it’s definitely not one of the most impactful homefield advantages out there.

Yes, the players are likely dealing with a healthy amount of interruption between practicing and dealing with personal problems, but my conviction in this bet has more to do with trusting Matt Stafford over Sam Darnold and Sean McVay over Kevin O’Connell.

It’s not that I don’t think O’Connell is a good coach, but there’s a lot of familiarity there and McVay hasn’t gotten the best of him before - plus, with the Rams mailing it in for Week 18, McVay has pretty much had two weeks to prepare, which I think is a dangerous proposition.

But honestly, this mostly comes down to Stafford > Darnold. Who has the playoff experience? Who do I trust more in the fourth quarter? Who is better rested? It’s Stafford all the way.

Don’t forget, this is Sam Darnold’s FIRST playoff start. Your saw what happened last week when the stakes were high…I’m not sure I see a bounce back here.

Rams by a billion…

No excuses, play like a champion.