As I alluded to in my Holiday Cleanup post from Saturday, I’m 1) ramping back up to a normal schedule of pre-game newsletters, but that in the meantime for Saturday I was looking to potentially bet two things live: 1) Derrick Henry TD, and/or 2) some combination of Ja’Marr Chase, George Pickens, and the CIN/PIT Over.

Well, fortunately I did end up taking Derrick Henry near even money partway through the second quarter, and extra fortunately, I restrained myself from betting on the Bengals/Steelers game because although Chase went Over, Pickens and the game as a whole certainly did not.

Sunday (so far) has been pretty similar. I’m continuing to get back on a regular schedule post-holidays and when combined with the weird dynamic that is Week 18, it’s been easier to place Live bets based on the game script and flow.

I wrote about how it can tough to tell whether a team or certain players will show up and really try before the game in Week 18, but after watching a few minutes, it can be pretty clear. The same can be said about the coaches. Are they calling the game aggressively? Are they involving star players? If a favorite goes down early, will they snap out of it and come back? Or will they lay down and either hit the postseason or vacation button?

With all that said, I need to come up with a solution for more appropriately sharing my live bets - perhaps if Rule 76 continues to grow, there’s a bet tracking/sharing service to be used, or community medium like X or Discord - I’m all ears but currently seems like a future us problem.

Until then, below is a quick recap of my Week 18 Live bets so far, as well as some brief thoughts on Vikings/Lions for SNF.

Week 18 Live Betting Recap

A lot of these had to do with the contract incentives I laid out on Saturday, but some were just based on watching the games. As public sports betting continues to grow in popularity, the “market” of it all appears to be getting more and more efficient (as it probably should be). However, I do think there are some serious opportunities in Live betting markets.

Baker Mayfield Case Study

Take Baker Mayfield for example. You only need to watch him a few times (let alone since he was in college) to know he is a heart-first QB. He’s not a designed runner, but he’s certainly capable and he’ll put his body on the line for the greater good of the team whenever needed.

So first of all, any line below 20 yards feels pretty good in a must-win scenario like today against the Saints. Then factor in the Bucs’ slow start and all of a sudden, his line is down to 8.5 yards with more than half the game remaining. Call me crazy, but early in the game, I would think his line should actually increase as the Saints extended their lead, rather than the other way around. He’s certainly more likely to scramble when trailing vs. leading…

And wouldn’t you know it, he ended with 68 (!!!).

The Bucs are now in the playoffs where I expect Baker to continue rushing - particularly as they will likely be underdogs to the majority of their four possible opponents (Vikings, Lions, Packers, or Commanders).

We’ll see - selfishly I hope it’s the Lions because they play man coverage and struggle against mobile QBs. Baker could run back 60+ in that scenario…

Vikings vs. Lions

I could go on and on about this game, but I’m going to keep it brief. Most people are familiar with the situation: this game is for all the NFC North marbles. Winner gets homefield advantage and first round playoff Bye while the loser becomes the winningest #5 seed in playoff history.

Most people are also pretty familiar with these teams as well, given their primetime history the past year or two. As a Bears fan, I’m intimately familiar with them, and it’s hard because honestly, they are both hard to root against. From coaches to players to style of play, these teams are what make the NFL fun.

I think it’s also fair to say the Vikings (at times) don’t look as good as a 14-win team, and even though the Lions usually do, the rising number of injuries to their roster, and particularly their defense is a major concern.

The spread and Total reflects it, but you’d expect this to be a close and high scoring game, with a slight edge given to the home team.

I believe the Lions have been a better football team but I also think the Vikings are currently better equipped to win this game. I’m not confident enough in that belief to put my money where my mouth is, nor would I enjoy actively rooting against the Lions, but I guess just let the record show…

Play The Hits

As for the bets, I’ve written extensively about the Lions’ tendency to incorporate Gibbs into the passing game in close games, tight situations, and when trailing. It hasn’t always been common for the Lions this year, but in tonight’s game, we could certainly see that.

Now, his line of 33.5 rec yards is the highest I’ve seen this year, so it’s not like this is a huge secret. Plus, the Vikings don’t exactly struggle against RBs in the pass game. However, I do think this presents another interesting Live betting opportunity as well. If the Lions go down, or are about to embark on a two minute drive, take a look at Gibbs’ live line on receiving yards AND receptions. He can rack them up pretty quickly…

As for the parlay, this is a game where I just wan to play the hits. Everything is super expensive by now, but it’s hard not to see the stars (Jefferson, Amon-Ra, and Gibbs) each having major roles in this game.

Hockenson is also appealing - as is Tim Patrick, but that’ll be a game script thing for me - Tim Patrick has been quiet lately, but if he sees an early target or two and seems to be part of the offensive game plan, he’s an interesting Live option.

Grab your popcorn folks, this should be a good one.

No excuses, play like a champion.