Welcome Back

First of all, I’d like to sincerely welcome new subscribers who have joined the journey of the past couple weeks, as well as apologize for the relatively abrupt silence.

I alluded to a bit of a holiday slowdown in my Week 16 Sunday Preview, but I didn’t quite foresee a total shutdown. Although, I will say it was both good and necessary.

I was still following the League, researching, and even placing a few bets when time allowed, but for the most part, Week 17 free time was [rightfully] dedicated to family rather than writing Newsletters, and bets placed were more of the gut-feeling and fun nature (back to the old days, if you will…and the results demonstrate that).

I’ve still listed out each bet at the bottom of the newsletter, but here’s a high-level overview of how things went in Week 16 and 17, and where I stand on a cumulative basis for the season.

• Week 16: +10.0u, or +51.7%

• Week 17: -4.0u, or -21.4%

• Cumulative (through Week 17): +1.1u, or +0.2%

Self-Reflection

At first glance, a mere 0.2% (+1.1u) return seems pathetic and somewhat ridiculous relative to the mountain of effort put into this whole thing.

However, under the context of a casual bettor, who previously only bet for the added entertainment value of watching the games, really “trying” for the first time ever, but also not totally losing sight of that entertainment value premise, I feel like anything in positive territory is actually pretty good.

Through 17 Weeks, I have wagered over 500u and somehow haven’t lost money. That’s like going to the casino once every three weeks for an entire year, playing for as long as you want, and coming out on top, which in my opinion is unheard of for an average person.

In other words, with that added context and from a “pay to play” standpoint, I’d consider my +0.2% to be wildly successful and I’m not afraid to admit it.

Sure, there’s a bit of luck involved there, but I do think my “research” has paid off as well. I’ve even noticed it within my own results on a week to week basis - typically the more I put in, the more I get out - and that’s still as a “casual” who is often getting the “worst” of every number by betting “late”.

Perhaps I’m delusional, but I do think with more time and a continued understanding of my own process, I could continue to improve in a more meaningful way.

Looking Ahead

Now, there’s two important points to cover: 1) the season isn’t over. Week 18 is just about to kick off and the postseason, although shorter, is like the regular season on steroids (more on that below), and 2) the ceiling becomes the floor. Whether it’s simply next NFL season or perhaps some NBA and/or MLB in the meantime, my own expectations have been calibrated and I’m excited to keep trying to “level up”.

Week 18 & Playoff Picture

Week 18 is weird. Most teams have been eliminated from playoff contention and therefore have nothing to play for besides future draft stock. But most players will still try (job security, pride, incentive bonuses, etc.); whereas others are simply looking forward to whatever vacation they inevitably have planned for next week.

Then there’s the teams who have already qualified for the playoffs - some of them are locked into certain seeds whereas others could technically move up or down, affecting future opponent and home field advantage. Even still, some of those teams are still sitting their starters and are essentially running the Carrie Underwood special.

Long story short, it’s tough to determine which teams and players will actually show up vs. which ones are coasting or resting. And it requires a lot of time and effort to fully understand the landscape - neither of which I’ve had this week, so my Week 18 bet slip will be small-to-nonexistent.

As a quick summary, here are the teams who are eliminated from playoff contention:

And here are the teams who have secured a spot in the postseason:

And here are the teams who are still fighting for a spot:

Obviously the above 5 teams have everything to play for, and from what I gather, the teams who have secured a spot but will still be trying include:

• Lions and Vikings: NFC North Division Title at stake → #1 seed, homefield advantage, and Bye, vs. #5 seed…sheesh that’s a big difference for two 15-win teams…

• Ravens: can clinch the AFC North and #3 seed with a win OR a Steelers loss.

• Steelers: can clinch AFC North and #3 seed with a win against the Bengals and a Ravens loss, or a #5 seed with a win and a Chargers loss.

Teams who are likely sitting starters:

• Chiefs: locked into AFC #1 seed.

• Bills: locked into AFC #2 seed.

• Texans: locked into AFC #4 seed.

• Eagles: locked into NFC #2 seed.

• Rams: clinched NFC West but could improve playoff position with a win but Sean McVay has rested starters in this scenario in the past and will likely do the same (Carrie Underwood).

Teams who are likely to play starters but have smaller stakes on the line:

• Chargers: locked into AFC #5 or #6 spot.

• Packers: locked into NFC #6 or #7 spot.

• Commanders: locked into NFC #6 or #7 spot.

Player Prop Incentives

Out of the teams above who are expected to play starters and “need” to win, the following players also have notable end-of-year performance incentives at stake:

• Courtland Sutton (WR): Sutton can earn a $500,000 bonus if he records 82 receiving yards in Week 18.

• Mike Evans (WR): Evans is eligible for a $3 million bonus if he achieves two milestones:

  • 70 Receptions: Needs 5 more catches.

  • 1,000 Receiving Yards: Needs 85 more yards.

  • These would also tie Jerry Rice's record of 11 consecutive 1,000-yard seasons.

• Baker Mayfield (QB): Mayfield can earn a $500,000 bonus if the Buccaneers secure a playoff spot.

• Emmanuel Ogbah (DE): Ogbah can secure a $500,000 bonus with 1.5 sacks in Week 18.

• Blake Cashman (LB): Cashman can earn a $250,000 bonus with half a sack in Week 18.

• Derrick Henry (RB): Henry can earn a $500,000 bonus by scoring one rushing touchdown, bringing his season total to 15.

• J.K. Dobbins (RB): Dobbins can earn a $150,000 bonus if he rushes for 58 yards in Week 18.

• Bud Dupree (Edge Rusher): Dupree is one sack away from earning a $250,000 bonus.

Source: ChatGPT

Saturday Bets

To be completely transparent, I don’t have anything going right now but expect to put in some Live bets depending on how the games go.

Browns vs. Ravens

Derrick Henry TD using the FD live boost. If his odds get juicier as the game wears on, a 33% profit boost could get this closer to even money. It’s hard to see the Ravens not making sure Henry gets that incentive bonus today.

Bengals vs. Steelers

Ja’Marr Chase and George Pickens and the Over. Both teams have shootout potential and both have their go-to’s in situations where they need to score. If the game starts slow, it could be a great opportunity to get a discounted price on any or both of these guys.

That’s it for now, more tomorrow for the rest of the Week 18 slate and getting back to normal pre-holidays programming!

Week 16 Bet Summary

Week 17 Bet Summary

No excuses, play like a champion.