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NFL Week 16 Sunday Betting Preview
Another Abbreviated Slate Amidst Holiday Traveling/Family Time
Rule 76
December 22, 2024
I’m back with another abbreviated newsletter in the midst of the holidays, traveling, family plans, and work. Things may be a bit slower over the next week or so, but I’ll still do my best to put things together when I can.
The regular season will also be slowing down as teams clinch and get eliminated from playoff contention. I think the next couple weeks could be a necessary lull before stepping it up for the postseason.
From all one of me at Rule 76, I wish you all a happy holiday season and best of luck with your betting endeavors.
Sunday Slate
Source: PFF
Bet Summary | |||
|---|---|---|---|
0.75u | James Conner O 85.5 rush yds | -110 | |
0.25u | James Connor 100+ rush yds | +152 | |
0.25u | James Conner O 19.5 rush attempts | +102 | |
0.75u | James Connor O 18.5 rush attempts | -125 | |
0.75u | Jerome Ford 3+ rec | -160 | |
0.25u | Jerome Ford 4+ rec | +142 | |
1.00u | Tyler Conklin O 18.5 rec yds | -110 | |
1.50u | Baker Mayfield O 14.5 rush yds | -110 | |
0.50u | Baker Mayfield 25+ rush yds | +250 | |
1.00u | Baker Mayfield O 9.5 longest rush | -120 | |
1.00u | 5-Leg TD Round Robin | +389962 (by 2's, parlay) | |
0.25u | 3-Leg First TD Round Robin | +3955500 (by 2's, parlay) |
Weather
Weather is certainly a factor for most outdoor games around this time of year, but particularly this week. It’s cold on the East Coast and in the North, and it’s raining in Seattle. I feel like Overs have been hitting pretty well recently, but bet with caution.
Source: Rotogrinders
Player Prop Rationale
James Conner: Panthers can’t defend the run. Kyler Murray was scared of the cold in his press conference earlier this week.
Jerome Ford: Taken from SGP (podcast) - his receptions tend to improve with Dorian Thompson-Robinson playing QB, but it’s a pretty small sample size. But I don’t think DTR can throw like Jameis, so I envision quite a lot of check downs.
Tyler Conklin: He’s over this in the past couple games and his target percentage increases 8.1 points against zone coverage. The Rams play zone at the fourth highest rate in the league.
Baker Mayfield: These numbers just seemed way too low for a SNF game to me. This is a Bucs letdown spot given their recent streak, but Baker is the “put the team on his back” kind of guy - especially in Prime Time and especially against a premier pass rusher in Micah Parsons (who looks likely to play).
Honorable Mentions
Rams -3 @ Jets. And also Rams defensive sack props. There are a lot of differing opinions out there on this one. I’m in the camp that Rodgers is old and only looked good the past few weeks because he was playing in Florida, and now it’s going to be freezing in New Jersey and the Rams are going to get after him.
Jamaar Chase Everything. Bengals in a desperation spot. Use your best players.
Vikings -2.5 @ Seahawks. NFC North dominance outside of division. Brian Flores defense vs. a banged up Geno Smith in the rain.
Eagles/Commanders 1H U 23. Run heavy and slow pace of play in the first half. Commanders have a good first half defense. It feels like a lot of people are on this so I’m passing.
No excuses, play like a champion.