Week 18 Betting Recap

Well this part should be quick considering both of my bets from the Vikings/Lions games were losers (see the rest of the Recap from Sunday). How does Justin Jefferson not get 70 receiving yards against the Lions’ secondary?!? Thanks a lot Sam “Pumpkin” Darnold…

Ugh, that’s a tough one, but it still left me in positive territory for the week and therefore for the full NFL regular season. In summary:

• Week 18: +3.5u, 29.4% return

• Cumulative / NFL Regular Season: +4.7u, 0.9% return

At first glance, +4.7u actually doesn’t look too bad, but the 0.9% is pretty small. An intuitive reader would connect those dots and realize it took a whole lot of units bet (risked) in order to return that +4.7u.

Well, you’d be right, but guess what, 0.9% since September annualizes to 2.7% so I’m basically running a Mutual Fund over here.

(totally kidding)

Vikings vs. Lions (SNF)

King Of The NFC North Jungle

Well, that was never even close. I won’t recap the game in full, but here are a few observations/thoughts I had while watching:

• Darnold: The dude has been an MVP candidate for most of the season and most people (including myself) are still hesitant to admit he’s good. So what are we supposed to take away from this performance? Was this simply a bad game in an unfortunately visible spot, or have the doubters been right all along and he’s the same ol’ Darnold? Will he be able to bounce back, or will his true colors show (again) when it matters most?..

• Coaching: I think Kevin McConnell is great, but it’s 4th and 4 on the DET 34, down 8 at the end of the third quarter…against the Detroit Lions. You simply cannot decide to kick a field goal there. And not to throw a 15-yard flag on myself, but that’s like bringing a knife to a gun fight. It’s soft, and not how you beat a team like the Lions, or any other top tier team like the Chiefs, Bills, Eagles, etc. It also admits that you don’t have faith in your offense (or in this case, Darnold) which I believe sends a rippling effect through the locker room…

• Lions Injuries: We all know by know the Lions have struggled with injuries all season, but particularly in the second half. Both units obviously showed incredibly well this past weekend but Terrion Arnold (CB) and Kevin Zeitler (OG) both left the game with injuries. Arnold’s x-rays came back negative but I haven’t seen anything on Zeitler yet (hamstring). On the other hand, Alex Anzalone made his return and led the team in tackles.

Wild Card Weekend - Early Thoughts

We have six glorious games ahead of us across Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Here’s what it looks like:

Gut Reactions

Chargers > Texans

I’ve written a fair amount about the fraudulent nature of the Texans’ offense. For whatever reason, it just hasn’t looked right all year, and I don’t necessarily expect that the fix itself against the Chargers’ defense. On the other hand, if you’ve followed for a little while, you know I’ve been burned by the Chargers’ offense over and over again.

However, you also know I’ve made a small fortune (exaggerating, mostly) on Cameron Dicker the Kicker and have posted his gif more times than any one person should.

Steelers/Ravens Recency Bias?

Are we just convinced the Steelers are bad now? Are we forgetting about how they’ve consistently been Lamar’s kryptonite, with the very notable exception of last game? And are we forgetting what Playoff Lamar is like?

Look, it’s clear the Ravens are better than the Steelers, but I’m not going to be so quick to abandon the Tomlin-as-a-dawg formula here… 9.5 points is a lot of points…

Josh Allen Train

I feel bad for the Broncos because they’ve been an impressive team. If you’ve followed this season, you know that ever since I was humiliated by incorrectly picking a Javonte Williams Under early in the season, I’ve actually done pretty well betting on the Broncos in spots where they may be overlooked.

If we remove two very important points, this honestly feels like a similar situation for the Broncos, but unfortunately, 1) they’re going against the freight train that is Josh Allen, and 2) they have a rookie QB playing Away in a hostile postseason environment.

Maybe in October at home, I’d give Nix and the Broncos the benefit of the doubt; after all, 8.5 points is a lot of points…but not in January in Buffalo when it matters most. The Broncos may simply just be standing on the tracks.

E-A-G-L-E-S

Look, I’m biased here (as a Bears fan) and would love nothing more than for the Eagles to smash the Packers. But even if I’m trying to be objective, I don’t see how the spread can be this close. What have the Packers done this year to make anyone think they can take down an elite team? Sure, they’re better than most, but certainly not better than the best. Injury news will be important for both sides, but gut reaction is Eagles by a billion.

Run Baker, Run…And Probably Jayden Too

I plan on doing a deeper dive into this game and what it means for Baker Mayfield’s rushing yards (prop line currently set at 17.5 yards). That initially seems doable to me, but if I think the Bucs will win (which I do), then perhaps Baker’s scrambling isn’t as necessary. Then there’s Jayden Daniels who could also run, Forrest, run if/when the game is on the line. Please hold…this one will require some digging.

Vikings/Rams - Pick A Fraud, Any Fraud

This one is tough. The Rams have shown moments of excellence but even more moments of clunkiness. And then there’s the Vikings who I’ve mentioned previously don’t always look like a 14-win team and always have the potential for Sam Darnold to turn [back] into a pumpkin.

So who do we trust more? Veteran Matt Stafford who hasn’t looked as consistent as we’re used to, but you’d think would be able to step it up in the postseason? OR Sam Darnold who has a strong enough supporting cast to win if he just has an average game.

I lean Rams but I’m not sure. There’s also coaching incest here and it’s going to take a bit more research to get my thoughts together. For what it’s worth, my first thought is Puka Nacua receptions (currently at O 7.5 -106). This feels like the kind of game where they target him early and often.

Return Of The Spreadsheet - Now Known As “Mizo”

For the OG readers, you know I’ve developed this “spreadsheet” using PFF offensive and defensive line data. I’d stop short of calling it a model, but it essentially reminds me to put an emphasis on the line of scrimmage, or trenches, as I believe that’s where a lot of football games are won and lost.

It’s not a coincidence that many of the remaining teams have some of the best defensive and particularly offensive lines in the League.

As for the spreadsheet, I’m officially giving it a name (for ease of referencing) and I’m going with “Mizo”, which is Japanese for “trench” because Japanese stuff is sweet. It’s also short and easy to say.

So officially, allow me to introduce you to Mizo:

I know that may be hard to see, but Mizo is born out of PFF’s offensive and defensive line advantage tool (which is the data with black text headers in the image above).

Keep in mind these are all percentages - derived from actual PFF data, but they’re just indicative values and are only meaningful on a relative basis.

In other words, a score of 30 doesn’t necessarily mean anything, but relative to a bunch of other single digit or negative scores indicates it’s actually pretty good. It’s also not a zero sum game, so technically both offenses could have a simultaneous advantage (or disadvantage).

The four columns with purple text headers are me. I’m adding the run and pass advantage together for a total advantage (indicative of general offensive success), taking the difference between a team’s total advantage and their opponent’s total advantage (indicative of offensive success relative to opponent), and then adding both total advantages together (indicative of general offensive success game-wide).

Like any spreadsheet or model in the sports betting world, it’s not always accurate, although it’s certainly been more helpful than not this year - particularly early in the season.

Here’s a more visually appealing output from Mizo, showing each team’s offensive line run advantage (light blue) and pass advantage (dark blue).

What I’m looking for here is large quantities either to the positive or negative and then comparing that to the spreads and totals.

For instance, Buffalo is an 8.5 point favorite over Denver, but PFF would indicate Denver actually has the advantage at the line of scrimmage.

Again, if it wasn’t for Josh Allen likely going beast mode and likely fully suppressing metrics like this, I’d be all over Denver here. It’s still probably applicable but Josh Allen scares me too much.

Another example is Philly. They are favored over Green Bay, but only by 4.5 points. Those bars tell me that number could easily be larger, especially if my gut is already thinking that way (which it is). It also informs potential Live betting because if Philly goes up early and/or is leading in the second half, you’d think they’d be able to successfully run and wind the clock down, therefore making it more difficult for Green Bay to come back.

Again, this is all indicative and can still be subjective, but I’ve found it to be a bit of a guiding light in what can sometimes feel like a dark room full of different data, numbers, and opportunities.

Overall, I haven’t made any moves yet, but you can tell which way I’m leaning. I’m more of a uncover every stone before committing type of person, but given the popularity of these games, from here on out it will be extra important to bet early and try to get the best of the number.

Keep in mind that Overs of all kinds will also likely be generally inflated as the Public gets more involved in betting on the games…

No excuses, play like a champion.